The Hour Glass

[crabcrab]

Some substantial shareholders of listed companies often parked their shares with nominee company for share borrowing, so they can earn interest..... And they are also the one who did sudden redemption, so nominee companies lent out shares will have to cover them immediately ....making sudden price hike... Never try sell short in a illiquid company, especially if it is a sound one.....

[propertyinvestor]

crabcrab, Im waiting for your 1.50! Faster buy up, I want to short big big!

[D123]

Watch exports have held fast to the course set at the beginning of the year. They have however outpaced the annual target, with the rate of variation over twelve months taking a positive turn even though a slowdown in growth is expected at the end of 2012. With a level of 1.9 billion francs, watch exports in June recorded their strongest growth of the first six months (+21.7%). The first half-year therefore surpassed 10 billion francs, an increase of 16.4% compared to 2011.

Gold watches underpinned this strong growth in June. Steel and bimetallic timepieces saw their
value increase but at a below-average level. The total number of timepieces exported fell in relation
to June 2011 and the trend is aligned with gradual stabilization. Steel watches and those in the
category of other materials played a key role in this development.

Main countries Wristwatches by price categories
Countries Mio. de CHF Change in % Share in %

Hong Kong 404.0 +28.0% 21.2%
USA 194.8 +23.8% 10.2%
France 133.7 +5.1% 7.0%
Italy 119.2 +23.5% 6.2%
China 112.5 -22.6% 5.9%
Germany 112.2 +64.6% 5.9%
Total 6 countries 1076.3 +18.3% 56.4%

The fall in volumes is attributable to watches costing less than 200 francs (export price), which recorded a decline of 9.1% while maintaining their value. Between 200 and 3,000 francs, results were up 2.5% by value and 6.5% in volume terms. Timepieces costing more than 3,000 francs continued their strong growth and saw their value increase by 34.4%.

Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong and the United States recorded an above-average increase. China suffered from a particularly unfavourable base effect (+78.9% in June 2011) and consequently registered a decline. This result accentuated the slowdown experienced on this market since beginning of the year, which remains however well above 2011 levels. Europe bounced back, thanks in particular to very strong growth in Germany. Italy also contributed to this good performance and, to a lesser extent, France.

Source: FHS

"Exports to Hong Kong in June were up 21.2 percent. It was about the same in May (but the monthly data has disappeared from the web). It was about the same every other month this year. They keep upping the exports to Hong Kong.

But Hong Kong also has sales tax data which comes from the sales tax receipts. There is in the data a series for "Jewellery, watches, clocks and valuable gifts" by both value and volume. The value series - relatively flattering, has monthly sales (versus previous corresponding period) for the last six months as:

+18.3%
+14.1%
+18.4%
+15.1%
+2.9%
+3.1%

Sales growth stopped. However exports to Hong Kong kept up (note that 21.2 percent figure above).

The volume growth actually went negative - being negative 3.4 and 3.1 percent for the last two months."

Source:
http://brontecapital.blogspot.sg/2012/08...ullet.html

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No comment; just FYI.

[propertyinvestor]

crabcrab, Im waiting for your 1.50! Faster buy up, I want to short big big!

I thought you were saying that you would sell shares at $1.40 & $1.41??? Here's the buy queue... But where are my shares????

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Closing at $1.445..... Congrats to all THG shareholders... A new benchmark price has been determined for THG

Wheres my $1.50!!! I waiting for my $1.50. You put $1.50, I sure sell down to you!

[thefarside]

To all the parties involved in the following please stop posting garbage like this on the forum. It is tedious having to run through these threads with multiple quotes and inane remarks. If you have nothing to do go read some ARs, watch TV or wank. Unbelievable.

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I sold all my hour glass to suckers today who bought it up from me at 1.41 and 1.40 Big Grin

I will throw more to suckers on the market tml if its still 1.40 Tongue

U say u sold all THG shares today. Tomo still throw to suckers if still 1.40. I dunno whether u joking or not but to short an illiquid counter is not wise imo.

If I like, I can borrow many shares to sell short Big Grin

crabcrab, Im waiting for your 1.50! Big Grin Faster buy up, I want to short big big!

Tongue I thought you were saying that you would sell shares at $1.40 & $1.41??? Here's the buy queue... But where are my shares???? Huh

Wheres my $1.50!!! Rolleyes I waiting for my $1.50. You put $1.50, I sure sell down to you! Tongue

[luxurybrand]

China market slow down, so what does it means to THG? No more growth?

[pianist]

China market slow down, so what does it means to THG? No more growth?

i suggest not to read too much headlines from newspaper. to me, they are all noise & quite a waste of time.
take for example euro crisis, headlines about un-employment in germany, my friends in germany told me life for everyone is just as normal - knock off at 5, weekend grocery shopping, go to the park and mountains to relax, the dental clinic next door still opens, etc..life still goes on....haha

[Musicwhiz]

This is a general warning - to users who post stuff which is inane and unnecessary, I'd suggest putting a stop to it. As mentioned, it does not add value and also serves to distract. The last thing I'd want is the forum to degenerate into the shouting and "huat" matches which plague so many other investment forums.

So let's please get back to discussing serious issues concerning companies, and uphold the spirit of value investing.

Thank you.

[BlackCat]

Interesting, though overly dramatic, piece by John Hempton of Bronte Capital. They are looking to short Richemont as a 'trading call', based on the discrepancy between Swiss watch exports to HK, and the HK sales tax receipts ( "Jewellery, watches, clocks and valuable gifts" by value).

http://brontecapital.blogspot.sg/2012/08...ullet.html

[Boon]

Interesting, though overly dramatic, piece by John Hempton of Bronte Capital. They are looking to short Richemont as a 'trading call', based on the discrepancy between Swiss watch exports to HK, and the HK sales tax receipts ( "Jewellery, watches, clocks and valuable gifts" by value).

http://brontecapital.blogspot.sg/2012/08...ullet.html

This is an interesting article by John.

No doubt the luxury goods market in China and Hong Kong is slowing down and there could be a built up in inventory as a result of that. But by assuming that all watches imported into Hong Kong, if not sold through the RETAIL network in HK, would end up as inventory is a FLAW.

Hong Kong imports and re-exports as well. It seems to me that the "re-export figures" are missing in John's equation, which led him into believing that there exists this "discrepancy" that he could exploit.

Extracts from the attached article:

Swiss Watch Export:
Geographical distribution (in CHF million)
Countries Value 2011 Change in % Share in %
Hong Kong 4,085.9 +28.3% 21.2%
USA 1,984.6 +18.4% 10.3%
China 1,636.3 +48.7% 8.5%
France 1,296.4 +10.9% 6.7%
Singapore 1,146.4 +27.5% 5.9%
O. Countries 9,128.7 +12.2% 47.4%
Total 19,278.2 +19.2% 100.0%

All of the Swiss watch industry’s main markets fared better than in 2010. Absorbing more than 20% of Swiss watch exports by value, Hong Kong recorded a very pronounced upswing (+28.3%), il¬lustrating indirectly the dynamism of markets sup-plied by its re-exports.


World watch imports
Once again the main importer of watch industry products was Hong Kong, which re-exported a large share. Its imports totalled 9.7 billion dol¬lars in 2011 (+30.7%).