The Hour Glass

[pacyfiq]

actually, after Mr Mano talks about family, he says something like "husband, wife, son and brother-in-law" which gets Dr Jannie into the argument, saying it is an insult.

I don't think that THG will be interested in Sincere given that what I heard during the private session is that some big distributors are pulling out of Sincere. Perhaps pianist who has talked with Dr Henry will like to share more?

There's also at least 3 fund managers around who are vested in THG. one of them is from i think lumiere capital and he voiced out some concerns during the agm.

a quick summary of the different markets:

•Japan – not able to expand more due to HR issue. CEO very experienced and had been there for more than 20 years. After the radiation incident, there has been a change in mindset, and Japan start to experience the best growth, driving watch sales

•Thailand – 5 years ago, they were 5th and Prima Time was 6th. Now they are the 1st in market share. Worried that when the king dies, mourning might freeze sales of luxury goods.

•Indonesia - Need to pay duty taxes and goods might get stuck for 4-6 months with some getting stolen. Unless bribery is done, it is hard to go into the market and they are not willing to sacrifice reputation.

•Hong Kong - Intent to expand to hong Kong has always been there, but need to find the right place at the appropriate rent. Rental for hong kong is about 8% of revenue as compared to 3% in Singapore. THG has been lucky to get in at a lower price as compared to what it will have been 12 months ago. Both shops there are specialised shop with Patek phillipe being the main partner.

•China has high hurdle rate and low margin. store in singapore is 10x more efficient than China. It took Emperor 15 years of operation in China to make a profit 2 years ago. 1.5m profit on 100m revenue. His take is that only brand owners should expand in China and not multi-brand retailer. Neither is THG going to focus a lot to attract the Chinese as not many comes to Singapore, in fact there's more going to Dubai than Singapore. They will rather capture through proxy like Hong Kong, Japan and Australia where there's 24m tourist to HK every year.

•Singapore - They have been fighting for 10 years for a store at Paragon before they finally got it. Ngee Ann City not willing to take in new watch retailer or brands as the owner feels the current retailers are sufficient to capture the market.

While there's much more information that I have gleaned from the 1 hr + chat, I think this statement will sum it all.

"the recent Ex-Ceo of Sincere, Stephan Ritzmann, after the release of result asks I don't understand how did you guys manage to achieve this kind of margin because I am not able to"

and if you check the background of this Stephan Ritzmann, he has been in the watch industry for more than 20 years.

The only thing that I am afraid of is that I might be too confident of THG, so I think there is a need to treat my words with some biasness and doubt from now on.

(vested and bias)

Great report, thank you very much

[dydx]

Having read all the recent postings by fellow forumers, it is quite clear to me most shareholders - including those who attended the AGM held yesterday (18Jul12) - hold a positive view on THG, both as a growing and profitable business, and as a stock.

Fellow shareholders should note that the 'XD' date for the approved $0.05/share Final dividend (with scrip option) for FY12 has been fixed for 29Jul12, and the dividend will be paid on 15Sep12.

I am simply going to hold on to my THG shares to benefit from the further growth and future profits/dividends of this most profitable retail enterprise listed on SGX.

[crabcrab]

Having read all the recent postings by fellow forumers, it is quite clear to me most shareholders - including those who attended the AGM held yesterday (18Jul12) - hold a positive view on THG, both as a growing and profitable business, and as a stock.

Fellow shareholders should note that the 'XD' date for the approved $0.05/share Final dividend (with scrip option) for FY12 has been fixed for 29Jul12, and the dividend will be paid on 15Sep12.

I am simply going to hold on to my THG shares to benefit from the further growth and future profits/dividends of this most profitable retail enterprise listed on SGX.

The first & final dividend for THG stated herein should be 6 cts instead.... Just a clarification....

[dydx]

I think I am getting old and my eye sight is becoming blurred! I actually read last FY11's dividend payment!

Indeed, THG's first & final dividend for FY12 is $0.06/share (vs. FY11's $0.05/share). The 'XD' date should be 27Jul12 (based on the record date fixed for 31Jul12), and the dividend will be paid on 8Aug12.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument
- just in time for some shopping and/or a meal with the family to celebrate National Day!

At $0.06/share, and based on today's (19Jul12) closing share price of $1.36, the derived dividend yield now stands at 4.41%p.a. Actual yield would be close to 4.60%p.a., considering the dividend will be paid/received in just 20 days' time.

[Boon]

The Federation of Swiss Watch Industry just released the figures : World distribution of Swiss watch exports for the period of January to June 2012. (see attached).

Export to Singapore is still growing but at a much slower pace of 6.7% compare to the same period last year. Whereas, exports to Hong Kong (I guess inclusive of Macau), Japan, Taiwan and China are still growing at double-digit growth rate.

[luxurybrand]

Like CrabCrab, I am vested in the Hour Glass for many years now & I enjoy reading the analysis and discussion on this topic very much. Great contributions from “dydx”, “Shanrui” and “Boon” and many others, even though sometimes I find some comments being biased to a certain extent !
Three questions one each for “dydx”, ”Shanrui” and “Boon”
1. To “dydx” : Why r u so sensitive to negative comments on the Hour Glass?
2. To “Shanrui”: Why do u have a bias view now after attending the AGM?
3. To “Boon”: Why r u so against paying for a good management team of the Hour Glass?
This topic will become even better if each of u can become less bias and more objective in your comments. U have earned my great respect. Keep up with the good works

[Musicwhiz]

Hi luxurybrand,

Try to google the term "Endowment Effect", which is a psychological bias attached to investing. I've studied behavioural finance extensively and this is one of the most pervasive effects, and it frequently makes people (yes, including myself) overly positive about companies in which we own shares.

Another effect which you may wish to look up is "Confirmation Bias", which is probably what Shanrui was talking about when he said he is "biased". When you are vested, you tend to look for positive news to affirm your convictions, and avoid negative news or news which does not conform to your beliefs. This is also called selective perception in the field of marketing.

Though when I read Shanrui's summary of THG's key markets, it would seem that he gave a rather succinct summary and is not being unduly biased, though of course from a shareholder point of view he should be reasonably confident of THG's growth potential (otherwise, why would he buy its shares?). I think what he means is that since he is likely to be inherently biased, read his words with objectivity to try to judge the substance of what he said and whether it portends good news for THG's business and expansion plans.

(Not Vested)

[dydx]

1. To “dydx” : Why r u so sensitive to negative comments on the Hour Glass?

As a relative newbie to this forum, you might like to know that, just like many other fellow forumers, I have been a shareholder of TGH - and I have been tracking the company - for a very long time! Since the very beginning, my views and opinions on THG have always been "positive", and this is very much based on the superior quality aspects of THG's operating track record - especially in the last 5 years - and business operations, and my positive assessment of the competence and drive of THG's senior management team, particularly Dr Henry Tay, Dr Kenny Chan, and Mr Michael Tay.

This topic will become even better if each of u can become less bias and more objective in your comments. U have earned my great respect. Keep up with the good works [/size]

I think everyone is entitled to his or her opinion(s), and readers in a public forums must apply their own judgement and a certain degree of caution - Note: I am not suggesting at all that people here are trying to mislead others. - when relying on what other write and say. But do remember this: Most serious people have an opinion; and whose isn't 'biased' at times?

[Temperament]

1. To “dydx” : Why r u so sensitive to negative comments on the Hour Glass?

As a relative newbie to this forum, you might like to know that, just like many other fellow forumers, I have been a shareholder of TGH - and I have been tracking the company - for a very long time! Since the very beginning, my views and opinions on THG have always been "positive", and this is very much based on the superior quality aspects of THG's operating track record - especially in the last 5 years - and business operations, and my positive assessment of the competence and drive of THG's senior management team, particularly Dr Henry Tay, Dr Kenny Chan, and Mr Michael Tay.

This topic will become even better if each of u can become less bias and more objective in your comments. U have earned my great respect. Keep up with the good works [/size]

I think everyone is entitled to his or her opinion(s), and readers in a public forums must apply their own judgement and a certain degree of caution - Note: I am not suggesting at all that people here are trying to mislead others. - when relying on what other write and say. But do remember this: Most serious people have an opinion; and whose isn't 'biased' at times?

What? Biasesd only at times? No, No, No. We are all "cult folowers with no leaders" If got leaders, usually "Wantanmera liu". But seriously i always try to remember to learn from everyone. But most important of all follow no one except GOD. (There i told you i am a cult follower.) Why do you think i am here for? To learn or quarrel?

[CityFarmer]

With years of experience both in work and personal life, there was no "un-bias" opinion/view in absolute term.

Opinions/view are grouped into

- Opinions/views from persons with "conflict of interest"
- Opinions/views from persons with "similar interest"
- Opinions/views from 3rd party independent persons

Then the opinions/views are post-processed in each group and retrieve the essence.