The Hour Glass

[D123]

I havent heard of anyone becoming a billionaire by reading graphs and charts and making big money consistently using technical analysis

Jim Simons. And there are others too, he just comes most immediately to mind.

[shanrui_91]

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...80019FD01/$file/THGL_4Q_FY2012_for_SGX.pdf?openelement

FY 2012 result is out with revenue growing 17% and net profit growing by 30%. Reason for net profit growing faster is
"Gross margin was 24.1% compared to 22.4%. The improvement in gross margin was driven by a more dedicated focus on its portfolio of brands."

EPS is 23.33 cents which means the PER is 5.6. ROA is at 15.5% and ROE is 20%. Net Asset Value is at $302 million which is around $1.25 per share of which around $0.21 is cash.

Total dividend declared is $0.06 which is 4.58% yield at current price. a pity that no scrip is allowed this year, else i might have gotten myself a physical cert...

(vested)

[dydx]

Is there a more profitable retail enterprise - both listed and private - than THG in Singapore? I really doubt it.

THG actually managed to deliver an EPS of $0.2331 (+28.8% yoy!) in FY12, and raised NAV/share to $1.25 as at 31Mar12 (+16.8% yoy, from $1.07 as at 31Mar11). If THG just delivers an EPS of another $0.2331 in FY13 (ending 31Mar13) - i.e. let's be conservative and assume no profit growth in FY13 - NAV/share as at 31Mar13 would have increased to approx. $1.42, after accounting for the declared $0.06/share First & Final cash dividend for FY12.

I think there are enough good reasons to believe that Mr Market will be quite willing to include the projected business profits and EPS for at least FY13 to price and value THG accordingly, but still based on conservative valuation parameters. Let's see how Mr Market would do his usual magic!

[KopiKat]

Based on the strong results for the 1st 9 months till 31Dec11.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...penelement
THG is poised to deliver a record NP of close to $55.0m and an EPS of approx. $0.234 for full-year FY12 (ending 31Mar12), and there are good reasons to be optimistic that FY13 (ending 31mar13) would be another reasonably good year.

If I were to assume that contributions from the 3 new shops will be as good as Q3 (Dec) plus Net Profit for Q4 (Mar) is going to be higher than Q3 (Even tho' Revenue will likely be lower, Admin Expenses will be a lot more lower due to Year end Bonuses already paid in Q3), I estimate EPS = 25.6ct and Net Profit closer to $60Mil. Perhaps too optimistic?

Your crystal ball is better than mine!

EPS = 23.31ct (Actual ) vs 23.4ct (dydx) vs 25.6ct (mine)
Net Profit = $56.12M (Actual) vs $55M (dydx) vs $60M (mine)

My forecast is ~10% too optimistic!

[valuenewb]

"Gross margin was 24.1% compared to 22.4%. The improvement in gross margin was driven by a more dedicated focus on its portfolio of brands."

This may get HG re-rated significantly as the margin is a primary driver for them in this line.

Vested. And optimistic.

[crabcrab]

Swiss watchmaking in April 2012
Growth loses momentum but remains significant

The value of Swiss watchmaking exports reached 1.7 billion francs in April. The 7.9% growth calculated against the month of April 2011 reflected a slowdown following an excellent first quarter. This increase is less pronounced but still robust. It suffered in particular from the unfavourable base effect, since April 2011 had seen a progression in excess of 30%. Despite this slowdown, April still achieved the highest value in absolute terms since the beginning of the year.

The value growth in April was mainly attributable to gold watch exports. Bimetal watches also contributed, while steel products experienced their first fall in more than two years. The number of pieces exported turned out to be stable: rising quantities of watches in some materials were offset by falling volumes in others.

Timepieces costing less than 500 francs (export price) were relatively close to the branch average in April. On the other hand, the 500-3000 francs category penalised the global result: down 7.7% in value terms and 3.7% in the number of pieces. Sales of watches costing more than 3000 francs continued to make strong headway with marked growth in both volume (+7.7%) and value (+16.1%). During the first four months of the year, all the segments reported growth, but the luxury category stood out with rates close to +20%.

The main markets showed mixed trends in April. While Hong Kong set the general tone, the United States reported a fall, notably because of a highly unfavourable base effect. China remained one of the most dynamic markets. In Europe, France and Italy recorded a fall, while Germany, in seventh position, experienced monthly growth of 24.0%.

Source: FHS

[dydx]

Based on the strong results for the 1st 9 months till 31Dec11.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...penelement
THG is poised to deliver a record NP of close to $55.0m and an EPS of approx. $0.234 for full-year FY12 (ending 31Mar12), and there are good reasons to be optimistic that FY13 (ending 31mar13) would be another reasonably good year.

If I were to assume that contributions from the 3 new shops will be as good as Q3 (Dec) plus Net Profit for Q4 (Mar) is going to be higher than Q3 (Even tho' Revenue will likely be lower, Admin Expenses will be a lot more lower due to Year end Bonuses already paid in Q3), I estimate EPS = 25.6ct and Net Profit closer to $60Mil. Perhaps too optimistic?

Your crystal ball is better than mine!

EPS = 23.31ct (Actual ) vs 23.4ct (dydx) vs 25.6ct (mine)
Net Profit = $56.12M (Actual) vs $55M (dydx) vs $60M (mine)

My forecast is ~10% too optimistic!

I think I am merely more conservative in my estimates for FY12 and perhaps lucky. More importantly, I think it is relevant to note that the Euro Crisis has started to have an impact - a small one so far - on THG's growth in business volume and PBT, as indicated in the latest derived 4Q numbers. Therefore, going forward, THG's growth in business volume may well slow down, but assuming the management will again execute well especially in merchandising and maintaining the above-industry operating margins - in both GP and control of running expenses - THG's PBT should continue to be exemplary.

[Salty]

and the dividend is increased by 20% to 6 cents!
woohoo

[shanrui_91]

and the dividend is increased by 20% to 6 cents!
woohoo

but no scrip is allowed this time DRIP is so rare in Singapore, SGX and MAS shold do something to promote it.

[propertyinvestor]

and the dividend is increased by 20% to 6 cents!
woohoo

but no scrip is allowed this time DRIP is so rare in Singapore, SGX and MAS shold do something to promote it.

Not in Hour Glass interest to pay out scrips this time! Leads to dilution!