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heya lazyplane, will you feel that the management has "learn" from the GFC and is more prepared this time? 
Or still they are reactive?
I would think it's has not bottomed yet, so recommend to stay out for a while... 
cheap can get cheaper...
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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(13-01-2017, 09:59 PM)brattzz Wrote: heya lazyplane, will you feel that the management has "learn" from the GFC and is more prepared this time?
Or still they are reactive?
I would think it's has not bottomed yet, so recommend to stay out for a while...
cheap can get cheaper...
I think management has tried hard to avoid GFC inventory write down but realistically, this is essential part of the core business and without inventory, they got nothing to sell.
There are also long standing relationships with the watch makers that they have to take into consideration
Agree cheap will be cheaper. It is sad as i know there are times where as good management can try to do everything to stop but you cant fight the market.
Just ask any ship maker or commodity exploration company that is worth their salt about the last 2 years...
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thanks lazyplane,
warren buffet say many times... "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact"...
It is a biz cycle vs an experienced management...
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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It seems to me that the perception on this has turned around from used to be buddy-fav (at least from the posts) to the biz-lousy-maybe-good-management case.
I'm keeping this in my watchlist. Wondering if it will be lousy-biz-lousy-management soon?!
Keeping eyes on this while having a very small stake to start diving deeper.
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
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16-01-2017, 10:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 16-01-2017, 10:23 AM by brattzz.)
Ksir, yes! ur summary is quite right! 
biz-lousy-maybe-good-management case VS lousy-biz-lousy-management soon
If you read the annual report, chairman also wrote about the structural changes in the macro/biz, BUT, stopped short of saying what's their plan...(maybe still thinking of plan! )
until more information is made known, we should remain sceptical,
not a buy-sell call sir! it's ur own money anyway!!
reference previous posts : BIG crabcrab sold out his/her BIG holdings when Ms Janice sold @ 80cts... his/her call was quite timely! (on hindsight of cos!)
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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Management may be prudent, but I think they are not nimble enough to adapt to the more online centric economy of today.
This management is certainly no Elon Musk or Warren Buffett..
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Just curious, am wondering why have to go online when the segment is high end? The biz model is not high volume low margin. There is a cost in setting up online (one off and maintenance), why getting on such running cost when it is unlikely to value add too much if at all.
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
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16-01-2017, 03:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 16-01-2017, 04:07 PM by BlueKelah.)
(16-01-2017, 02:02 PM)ksir Wrote: Just curious, am wondering why have to go online when the segment is high end? The biz model is not high volume low margin. There is a cost in setting up online (one off and maintenance), why getting on such running cost when it is unlikely to value add too much if at all.
you are mistaken about online store being for high volume low margin.
Just go and google around, highly successful high end brands like Louis Vuitton / Hermes / etc all have online stores where you can order stuff that costs tens of thousands.
so what makes you think it is unlikely to value add? online sales will enable the company to establish a much larger presence both locally and globally. Especially big markets on the other side of the world in north/south america and maybe even China (though arguably they already have their own online stores selling luxury watches already.)
IMHO online retail is a market that THG has lagged behind. Instead of asking customers to come down to the shop to buy, it would be much better if they offer customer a choice to buy immediately online and get it delivered or pick up in store. They can also offer value added services like a 24/7 online customer support officer / chat, which will enable them to sell watches to customers when all the physical shops are closed. Overseas customers who may have shopped at their store in Singapore would be able to order after they return to their home country.
Nowadays it doesn't cost that much to set up online presence. THG already has a nice flashy website, not that hard to leverage on that. It's all part of doing business. Pretty sure it's gonna boost sales and add a lot of value to the business if done correctly.
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(16-01-2017, 02:02 PM)ksir Wrote: Just curious, am wondering why have to go online when the segment is high end? The biz model is not high volume low margin. There is a cost in setting up online (one off and maintenance), why getting on such running cost when it is unlikely to value add too much if at all.
Have actually commented on this previously:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-258-...#pid134152
Adding to that, I believe the running cost of operating a brick-and-mortar store at prime location should be higher than operating a simple online service.
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Pardon my ignorance. What is the avg price of a watch sold by THG? If its in the S$100k region, then i believe pp might want to go down to see and try before committing such an amt? Anybody buy cars via online?
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