The Hour Glass

[brattzz]

figure it's time for buy-buy-buy instead of sell down now...

[BlueKelah]

if we look at companies within the SGX. Those that registered strong growth are the turn around stories, those that got battered badly previously that any swing to profitability translate to a big movement up. (did not study much on semi con but I guess that sector seems to belong to the category described). You cant really find any solid growth companies, especially those that is headquartered here or relies a large part on the local market.

I seriously doubt you can find many strong growth companies in other exchanges given the poor global economy and subpar GDP growth in most economies. Probably only niche companies catering to the "growing consumer market" in China will have strong growth, but those are probably already highly crowded plays.

Growth can also be very fleeting.

Semi con wise AMAT and NVIDIA have done very well this past year showing good growth but the boom in Semicon started in June-July this year, so if youre not on board you've probably missed out, and the way CHina and Taiwan are ramping up production it wont be long before the cycle flips again. DRAM prices are still spiking but not as steeply as before. The rush for chips to produce electronics for year end christmas shopping likely ending.

Can always hunt for Value instead, which of course is usually boring as hell and may not be your cup of tea lol 

THG should be hit very badly from SG downturn, there will be a LAG period before it shows on their financials though, next half year wont be pretty.

[crabcrab]

The Hour Glass ($0.665) - Discretionary spending will continue to face headwinds in the near term. As previously posted, THG share price of $0.70 to $0.85 was fully valued. US funds already acquired around 10% making it difficult to privatised for the Tay family though. Short term wise, shares should remain illiquid again given US funds had stopped the buying... Good luck to those who are still holding to THG...

[brattzz]

i would think that the FMR will continue to buy, abit at a lower buy-in price at a much later stage, say 2017-2018,
after-all, they are in for the long haul and situation look set for more good/low buy-in s prices, and turn-around play @ 10% say 2020++, rather.

Unless of cos Tay Family offers a premium price, which is quite unlikely as Datok Janice has sold out..
we also cannot rule out smart money offering to buy-out THG....

let see how it works out!

short-term pain, mid/long-term play,

If this is not the best time to buy when it's down, then when will the best time be???

[BlueKelah]

i would think that the FMR will continue to buy, abit at a lower buy-in price at a much later stage, say 2017-2018,
after-all, they are in for the long haul and situation look set for more good/low buy-in s prices, and turn-around play @ 10% say 2020++, rather.

Unless of cos Tay Family offers a premium price, which is quite unlikely as Datok Janice has sold out..
we also cannot rule out smart money offering to buy-out THG....

let see how it works out!

short-term pain, mid/long-term play, [emoji14]

If this is not the best time to buy when it's down, then when will the best time be???

When it is down even more..

sent from my Galaxy Note 7

[brattzz]

fair, cheap will be cheaper!

good to wait out!

[Big Toe]

There is no best time. No one knows how hard sales will be hit.
No one knows how low it can go and how long it will stay low.

CitiBank dropped from $50+ to $1+during the last housing crisis.
If a crisis hits hard, there is no floor price. In citi's case it dropped 98% before bottoming out.
Not saying that it will happen to any company but it CAN happen.
Companies get into deep trouble more frequently than what most people realize.

[BlueKelah]

Came across this in my reading, IMHO this is a good guide to the high end watch market THG is operating in, in fact, this type of high end product could also be a good indicator as to how the global economy is going.


Swiss Watch Exports Have Biggest Monthly Drop in Seven Years
Swiss watch exports plunged 16 percent in October, the biggest monthly drop in seven years, as demand weakened in almost every major market for Rolex and Omega timepieces.
Shipments fell to 1.68 billion francs ($1.7 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said in a statement Tuesday. The decline was much greater than expected and was made worse because October was the weakest month of last year, according to Zuzanna Pusz, an analyst at Berenberg.

The longest slump in more than two decades is threatening employment in the Swiss watch industry, which had been riding a boom as rich Chinese bought more timepieces. Richemont plans to cut more than 200 positions at brands such as Vacheron Constantin, the Unia trade union said last week. Any rebound is now even further away, according to Luca Solca, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas.
“The weaker-than-expected October export performance places expectations of growth by year-end under increased pressure,” Solca wrote.
Swatch shares fell 3.5 percent to 285.8 Swiss francs at 10:14 a.m. in Zurich, while Richemont declined 2.4 percent to 64.3 francs.

[*]Exports have fallen 11 percent in the first 10 months of the year
[*]13 of top 15 markets were negative in October
[*]Shipments to Hong Kong, biggest market, fell 22 percent vs. 40 percent in September
[*]Exports to U.S. declined 17 percent
[*]U.K. posted 9 percent gain as weaker pound drove sales; fourth monthly increase
[*]Average prices declining, federation says
[*]China posted 2.8 percent gain, fourth month of recovery


========================================================================================
There are also more detailed analysis and breakdowns of export by region during the year and for month of October 2016 as well on the official swiss watch link from the report above. Steep drop throughout the world with only China and UK showing some growth.
Monthly analysis October 2016

Under country it shows YoY drop of 26% for exports to Singapore in terms of CHF value. Probably can start accumulating THG stock when exports to singapore start to show a rebound in the future. Total value by countries Oct 2016

Watch industry statistics Swiss watch exports

Good luck with this stock ;P

[brattzz]

yes sir, macro luxury biz on it's way down, also see if THG's management is ahead of curve, OR, right behind....

would expect THG to lock in good prices for investment grades watches,

looking up to THG's management!

[lazyplane]

yes sir, macro luxury biz on it's way down, also see if THG's management is ahead of curve, OR, right behind....

would expect THG to lock in good prices for investment grades watches,

looking up to THG's management!

I havent looked at this counter for a while since i sold my holdings in 2016. And it is being to look interesting again. 

I will agree that i think THG generally (in the past) has been well managed but a few concerns remains for me to buy again now
1. The bear is just starting

2.  I have not seen THG writedown their inventory. In the last GFC when i was vested in this counter, i recall seeing the paper loss in inventory and it was scary.
While some will argue that stock like THG have "timeless" quality , i think we must also remember not all watches in THG are timeless
And writedowns is a key indicator for me to buy as there is additional "buffer" for me to know that when the uptrend comes, i think we will see a better appreciation in this counter

3. THG revenue is not as global but very much SG centered.  SG is really getting bad for retail now.