Courts Asia

[KopiKat]

Volume is also getting lower, so, those who'd been 'successful' during IPO balloting and who're not long term investors may be slowly getting weeded out. If so, the Stabilizing Manager may start to nudge up the price slowly to IPO level. BUT, with aro' 4Mil+ units left for stabilizing, it'll require some luck.... Possible for a 'stag'...??

how did u know ard 4mio units are left?

Simple math. Refer to earlier post (reproduced below) for figures (in bold),

17,159,000 (Total Available) - 4,939,000 (Used on 17-Oct) - 5,700,000 (Used on 18-Oct) - 2,200,000 (Used on 19-Oct)

The share price drop back to IPO price of $0.77, with the highest volume of 8.5 mil shares. Total volume today is 10.2 mil shares

Stabilizing Action
4,939,000 @ $0.765 to $0.77

0.725 as now. volume more than 7 million shares.

seems market is not convinced by its valuation, either.

Total available for Stabilizing (Pg3) = 17,159,000 Shares
Looking at the nos. used yesterday and the current price, looks like going to be used up very fast....

Another 5,700,000 @ $0.705 to $0.77 today. Closed @ $0.735.

Another 2,200,000 @ $0.71 to $0.735 today. Closed @ $0.735 (same as yesterday)

[pianist]

thks for the explanation..
hmm..in view of drying up of ammo at the stabiliser side against the weakening price, r u gg to for a short position?

[KopiKat]

thks for the explanation..
hmm..in view of drying up of ammo at the stabiliser side against the weakening price, r u gg to for a short position?

I'm not very sophisticated... don't have CFD acct to do shorting.
It's only 3 days since Courts listing but daily volume is now much lower and prices seems to be stabilizing at $0.735 +/-. I was thinking more of 'stagging' rather than shorting. Reason is, if the above continues (lower daily volume + price stabilizing), the Stabilizing Mgr may be able to slowly bring the price back towards IPO level. I'll have to think carefully whether the 4Mil+ balance units is going to be enough to do that.... Also, traders who'd bot' at closer to $0.70 may start to unload or others may short it.. That's the risk to consider, just for some cheap thrills...It'd be good to see insiders / cornerstone investors buying at this lower prices, but I don't see that happening here...

PS. Don't try the above.... I usually only do that for stocks I don't mind holding for longer term if it doesn't work according to plan...

[CityFarmer]

thks for the explanation..
hmm..in view of drying up of ammo at the stabiliser side against the weakening price, r u gg to for a short position?

I'm not very sophisticated... don't have CFD acct to do shorting.
It's only 3 days since Courts listing but daily volume is now much lower and prices seems to be stabilizing at $0.735 +/-. I was thinking more of 'stagging' rather than shorting. Reason is, if the above continues (lower daily volume + price stabilizing), the Stabilizing Mgr may be able to slowly bring the price back towards IPO level. I'll have to think carefully whether the 4Mil+ balance units is going to be enough to do that.... Also, traders who'd bot' at closer to $0.70 may start to unload or others may short it.. That's the risk to consider, just for some cheap thrills...It'd be good to see insiders / cornerstone investors buying at this lower prices, but I don't see that happening here...

PS. Don't try the above.... I usually only do that for stocks I don't mind holding for longer term if it doesn't work according to plan...

"Kiasi" is important part of our life as value investor. Recalling WB's quote

"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1"

[pianist]

what do u mean by stagging in investment term?

[propertyinvestor]

what do u mean by stagging in investment term?

Means to subscribe for the IPO and dump it on the first day of trading.

[dzwm87]

(A) The company wrote in the prospectus that they do not intend to enter further asset securitization programs once the latest one expires, which I assume would be in about 1 or 2 years' time. When that happens, does that mean they would need more working capital? Going back to the early 2000s, asset receivables turnover was about 230 days or so, compared to the 180 or so now in the last 4 years. Furthermore, given the supposed growing popularity of its credit lines, especially in Malaysia, wouldn't they need even more working capital then before?

where in the prospectus did they say so?

[D123]

(A) The company wrote in the prospectus that they do not intend to enter further asset securitization programs once the latest one expires, which I assume would be in about 1 or 2 years' time. When that happens, does that mean they would need more working capital? Going back to the early 2000s, asset receivables turnover was about 230 days or so, compared to the 180 or so now in the last 4 years. Furthermore, given the supposed growing popularity of its credit lines, especially in Malaysia, wouldn't they need even more working capital then before?

where in the prospectus did they say so?

Thanks dzwm87 for making me read the IPO prospectus again. Seems like I made a few mistakes.

(1) I was wrong in assuming that the Asset Securitization Program 2012 ends in one or two years' time. On reading the prospectus again, it seems that the termination date for this program is Sep 2017 or 2018, at the option of HSBC. The previous Asset Securitization Program 2010 was for three years, so I assumed the replacement 2012 version would be for a short term as well. My bad.

(2) The part that drew my concern about the program not being renewed can be found on page 74 of the prospectus, near the end of the second paragraph. It says, "Upon the expiration of the Asset Securitization Program 2012, CSL will not sell further receivables to Assetrust." Assetrust is the vehicle which they use to transfer the receivables to HSBC. Having read that again, they only said they will not sell further receivables to Assetrust. They could very well create another vehicle under a new name to sell receivables to. That would be cheeky, but I guess, not totally surprising.

[CityFarmer]

One of my concern on credit service is the risk level

Under Asset Secularization Program, the receivable is pledged at 70% value. The impairment loss of credit service is approx 3% (Singapore) and 5% (M'sia) at FY2012. Delinquency rate (>6 month in arrears) is approx 3% (Singapore) and 10% (M'sia) in FY2012

Some of the credit are under insurance protection, but the ratio should be minimum.

The credit service is unsecured. The amount of receivable is $181mil in the program, about 68% of total equity after IPO. It definitely deserves a concern...

[CityFarmer]

Kim Eng has a report on Courts Asia without any rating

Base on the report, stabilising actions so far are

17th Oct with 4.9m shares @ SGD0.765-0.77
18th Oct with 5.7m shares @ SGD0.705-0.77
19th Oct with 2.2m shares @ SGD0.71-0.735
22nd Oct with 1.5m shares @ SGD0.715-0.745
23rd Oct with 0.8m shares @ SGD0.725-0.73
24th Oct with 0.6m shares @ SGD0.715-0.73
25th Oct with 0.2m shares @ SGD0.72-0.73
Total 15.9m shares purchased. Remaining number of shares to undertake for stabilising action – 1.259m
Total - 17.159m, or 20% of total offering shares

On 29th Oct, another 0.5m shares used @ SGD0.715-0.725

Not much bullets left (less than 1m shares), will it cross below $0.7 after then?