USD/SGD

[godjira1]

ladies and gents (suspect few of the former here...),

just wanted to share something I'm trying to do but struggling with getting enough information. obviously the market has done well of late with qe3 and what not, but I'm trying to cull some of my holdings that I feel will be adversely affected by a stronger sgd.

broadly, those with usd borrowings and earning larger share of revenue locally will be positively affected, and vice versa. But the big problem is that a lot of these companies hedge their forward exposure, and to differing extent for each of them, throwing in an element of cashflow via margin calls as well.

maybe i'm just barking up a tree that will yield very little returns/investment decisions so wondering if any of the gurus here have attempted something like this before.

[RBM]

Hello Godjira1,

One point from my side ....... both DBS PB and Standard Chartered Priority are advising their clients that in the near term the USD is likely to strengthen against the SGD. While the long term direction is for the SGD to gradually strengthen, in the coming months it seems that some of the currency forex analysts are bullish on the USD:SGD pair, stating that ~ 1.22 may be a bottom at least in the near term.

I suppose what I am trying to say is that the rise of the SGD is not inexorable.

ladies and gents (suspect few of the former here...),

just wanted to share something I'm trying to do but struggling with getting enough information. obviously the market has done well of late with qe3 and what not, but I'm trying to cull some of my holdings that I feel will be adversely affected by a stronger sgd.

broadly, those with usd borrowings and earning larger share of revenue locally will be positively affected, and vice versa. But the big problem is that a lot of these companies hedge their forward exposure, and to differing extent for each of them, throwing in an element of cashflow via margin calls as well.

maybe i'm just barking up a tree that will yield very little returns/investment decisions so wondering if any of the gurus here have attempted something like this before.

[AlphaQuant]

MAS keeps the fluctuations of the usdsgd exchange rate within a band, of which they decide on the width, slope and the mean to execute their monetary policy.

different banks have different models to compute the NEER, but current level does seem to be at the lower band of the NEER, so it will be interesting to see what MAS does in October when they review the policies.

nonetheless, with the SGD one of the remaining 8 AAA rated soverign debts left, i think hot money inflow is inevitable in the long run

[RBM]

Good one AlphaQuant,

From an amateur viewpoint (i.e. mine), I challenged DBS' bullish advice regarding the USD:SGD currency pair. Simple old me thought that if the US Fed has an open ended commitment to print more US$ this would serve to weaken their beloved currency - particularly against the S$, which is subject to rather rigid "in-band" and annual appreciation Government policies.

DBS pushed back strongly and Standard Chartered's latest Priority weekly also predicts, with a somewhat contrarian midset, a near term rebound of the US$ vs the Singie in the near term ........... but longer term the S$ continues on its upward rise. We'll see.

MAS keeps the fluctuations of the usdsgd exchange rate within a band, of which they decide on the width, slope and the mean to execute their monetary policy.

different banks have different models to compute the NEER, but current level does seem to be at the lower band of the NEER, so it will be interesting to see what MAS does in October when they review the policies.

nonetheless, with the SGD one of the remaining 8 AAA rated soverign debts left, i think hot money inflow is inevitable in the long run