Triyards Holdings

[gzbkel]

Hey greengiraffe, welcome back!
Really missed your posts.

[weijian]

a little bit out of topic...but reading back the 2015 posts, GG, as the seasoned ex-analyst/current OPMI has had the bulk of his "O&G predictions" coming reasonably true.

personally i had benefitted from his warnings and cut losses on O&G exposure and resisted the temptation to catch a falling knife.

Wherever you are, GG, thanks alot.

Hi Weijian,

Thanks for your acknowledgement. I saw a message from my kakis. The winter is far from over and pls be reminded that we are in 2017. You guys must be having a good time with dydx and boon hunting high and low for value plays for delistings and growth. Enjoy that as I have lost touch with SGX. 

My glasses are tuned to hunting for CONsters and avoiding them. Avoiding losing $ is my pillar for wealth preservation. Once preservation is achieved, $ will come.

My SGX exposure has been reduced to the lowest levels in decades as I can't see much road ahead despite all the selected parties primarily because SGX has been degraded to a market for so many big players that can't find a space in their primary exchanges. Even within my substantially reduced exposures - they comprises of various value traps that won't excite many at all and they largely have business exposure substantially outside Singapore and North Asia.

Bear in mind its 2017 and if we look back 1987, 1997 and 2007... even a student with the help of wiki will highlight the big events of global financial markets.

Don't let me the wet blanket as usual. You guys must do what u do best - keep making $ but remember - When it is too good to be true, its probably a fraud.

All the best
Irrelevant and Expired Always
GG

hi GG,
I am glad that my post incurred your response (which i didn't think it would) and its your first post after ~1.5years.
As VB moderator, i hope it doesn't stop - VB.com only gets as good as its contributors. Of course, contribute at your own pace and enjoyment.

You have helped a lot by sharing your wisdom and experience...and so how can it be "irrelevant and expired always" ? I mean, you are a survivor and if any of us want to survive, it would be good to listen to what you have to share.

[holymage]

Excellent sharing by GG on the oil cycle.
Oil services or equipment providers tend to be the hardest hit during the downcycle, while refiners are more resilient. I do think that the current oil cycle will be a prolonged cycle (perhaps similar to the 1980s oil crisis) and Wong Fong Fui from Boustead expressed the same opinion as GG.

Another important lesson would be that prices are not indicative of the fundamentals of the companies. Prices are just indicative of the sentiments of the market. Trying to time the market when the fundamentals are deteriorating could... possibly be buying into a value trap. Each to his own.

However, I do think there are gems in the O&G industry and perhaps undervalued if listed at all.
From a conversation I had with a platoon mate (O&G industry) during a very recent reservist, the entire O&G industry is in doldrums and even now, there isn't much work in his previous MNC. Most of the drilling in the North Dakota have halted and many oil-towns have became ghost-towns. The situation is that bad.
Currently, he is working in a SME which sells components and services Bangladesh O&G companies. The business is resilient and performed much better than its O&G peers. The O&G downturn didn't affect his new company. Why? Because Bangladesh produces oil for domestic consumption and will continue producing as it is a net importer of oil. I suspect that there is a high possibility that the Bangladesh client of my friend's company could be state-owned.
This is one example of an exception in the O&G industry.

[specuvestor]

Hey greengiraffe, welcome back!
Really missed your posts.

Welcome back mate hope all good for you downunder

[dydx]

Today's announcement...
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/TRIYARDS...eID=469714
Triyards looks like another goner in the troubled O&G sector.

Would most people have predicted Triyards' demise by the the company's 3Q (ended 31May17) result?
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/TRIYARDS...eID=462335

[karlmarx]

Who are Triyards' main customers? It had US$230m in receivables...

[d.o.g.]

This company was in trouble since before it was listed. Trade receivables have been over 180 days of sales every year except FY12. Furthermore, in every single year, more than half the trade receivables were unbilled, meaning that half the sales and profits being recognized were essentially imaginary. See my earlier posts on unbilled receivables in the thread on Ace Achieve Infocom. Anyone holding Triyards shares at any point in time was simply not paying attention. The shares have never been investable, period.

The FY2016 annual report is especially damning. Consider Note 10 on Trade Receivables. Of the US$170m of trade receivables on 31 Aug 2016, US$117m was unbilled. Obviously, an unbilled receivable cannot be overdue. Therefore, all the overdue receivables must come from the US$53m of billed receivables. US$41m of trade receivables were overdue by more than 180 days. That means that nearly 80% of the billed receivables were over 6 months late. So almost 70% of sales consisted of money that could not be collected because the clients had never been invoiced, and of the 30% of sales that had been billed, over 80% was overdue for more than 6 months. There is no way the business could have been operating normally.

The annual report was released in November 2016, and the shares traded as high as $0.315 in January 2017. So there was plenty of time to sell and avoid the crash to $0.08.

As usual, YMMV.

[karlmarx]

Hi d.o.g, you always seem to have the answer to why companies blow up when they do. Do you make an effort to comb through the annual reports of every single listed equity in Singapore, looking for red flags?

With regards to Triyards, how can their auditors be satisfied that revenues were booked when there is no invoice issued to customer?

[d.o.g.]

Hi d.o.g, you always seem to have the answer to why companies blow up when they do. Do you make an effort to comb through the annual reports of every single listed equity in Singapore, looking for red flags?

With regards to Triyards, how can their auditors be satisfied that revenues were booked when there is no invoice issued to customer?

As a full-time professional investor, I would be remiss if I did not look through every company in my key markets at least once. When I see problems I just stay away and make notes to check back once in a while to see if the company has blown up yet. Usually it only takes a couple of years for the problems to sink the company. They also make for good teaching points when I write about them in my newsletters.

Regarding Triyards' auditors, only they have the answer. Our job as investors is not to ask for changes in accounting standards, but to recognize when such standards are being applied to distort reality, and to make our own adjustments accordingly. Of course, for some investors, this is too much work, which is why I am still in business

As always, YMMV.

[CY09]

Hi d.o.g

Curious what are the key markets that you examine on the Singapore scene?