Triyards Holdings

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#51
(20-10-2015, 03:59 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The company, is one of the quality O&G stocks, that worth following. I will recommend another one, Pacific Radiance.

(not vested in both, but monitoring)

IMHO, none of the O&G stocks listed on SGX will benefit from any recovery from the initial stages of the O&G recovery.

The closest are probably the Rig builders but they will take years as their customers currently suffering from huge over-supply will need long confirmation period before a sustainable new cycle for them will come. From a dino analyst perspective, such a lead time can be as long as 3 - 5 yrs given that they have it really good since the replacement cycle started around Y2K.

How to play O&G recovery - easiest take a view on oil futures... looking for real proxies - go for quality E&P names on major exchanges. SGX's qualities are deemed to be juniors that are aplenty on these exchanges

GG
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#52
What an interesting comment that none of the O&G will benefit...

Brent Crude bottomed around 18th Aug. O&G equities bottomed around 24/25th Aug.

So far

XOM is up 18%
EOG is up 23%
CLR s up 30%
but Triyards is up by >70%.... Heart
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#53
I think for Singapore O&G, there will be more bankruptcies before the tide turn.

One has to differentiate between sentiment change on the stock mkt and the real fundamental changes in business.

I stand corrected with my views 3 yrs down the road.

GG
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#54
In a bottom up approach, there are always few individual gems, in a "depressed" sector, aren't there?

I have seen very profitable property deals, amid the current property gloom.  Big Grin I reckon the same will happen to any "depressed" sector.

(not vested)
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#55
You can make money if the company don't benefit and lose money if the company benefit.

As investors we must always bear in mind the difference between a good company and a good investment.

We can profit from O&G companies even if they don't profit as long as we have a good entry price.
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#56
(21-10-2015, 06:11 PM)postage paid Wrote: You can make money if the company don't benefit and lose money if the company benefit.

As investors we must always bear in mind the difference between a good company and a good investment.

We can profit from O&G companies even if they don't profit as long as we have a good entry price.

YMMV.

At my age, the last thing I need for a company or companies to going into a trading halt and eventually a suspension that is no different from the S Chip crisis during GFC 07/08.

Catching a falling knife is a mentality that many can't quit only until they hit the big one.

Odd Lots Vested
GG
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#57
EXTRACTED FROM SOURCE LINK: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/newb...-business/

"In what could prove as a great bargaining opportunity for many ship owners, there seems to be a solid trend towards lower newbuilding prices, as shipbuilders are looking to attract more business. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “the softening price trend continues as the bulk of shipbuilders report sub par quarterly earnings. The difficulties having been noted during the course of the year has taken its toll on the majority of shipbuilders in all three major shipbuilding nations”.
Allied noted that “few are those which seemed to have escaped the poor operating performance and those few seemed to have used the opportunities that arose in the tanker market taking up their good reputation in the construction of product tankers to gain an upper hand during the current market downturn. The question here is that even these few shipbuilders will be finding it ever more difficult to avoid slipping into the red, as expectations regarding activity moving forward are for a continuation of what we had seen during the majority of 2015. The only escape seems to be through a continued consolidation in the shipbuilding market in order to better balance supply in accordance with the pre-vailing demand side of things”.
Meanwhile, in a separate weekly report, Clarkson Platou Hellas noted that “the focus of ordering this week has been in the coated/specialised tanker markets. COSCO Dalian announced an order for one firm 22,000dwt coated product tanker for delivery at the end of 2016. The buyer is understood to be Hong Kong based Heng Tong Fuels & Shipping. Although understood to have been signed earlier this year, it has come to light that ABC Maritime (Canada) have ordered three firm 21,800dwt IMO2 coated shallow draft chemical tankers at Triyards (Ho Chi Minh). Delivery of all three vessels is planned for 2H 2017.
In the ferry/ropax markets, Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd (CMAL) have announced that contracts have been signed with Ferguson Marine in Scotland for two 100m ropax. Pricing is in the region GBP 48.5m each, with delivery planned for 1H 2018”, the shipbroker concluded.
In the S&P markets, Allied Shipbroking noted that “things seemed to have been under considerable pressure on the dry bulk market for the past several weeks, as the number of buyers with keen interest dried up, while in some size segments we also noted a strong number of good quality candidates flood the market under distressed sale conditions. Inevitably this should push for a continual drop in prices with further discounts now expected to be reflected in several upcoming sales. On the tanker side, activity picked up again this week with the emergence of a good number of enbloc deals. Through this however it also emerged that the market is now on a softening trend in terms of asset prices with some of the biggest drops now confirmed on the larger VLCCs which now look to have lost on their summer period momentum”.
Finally, in the demolition market, Allied noted “another drop in scrap prices noted this week though little of this is reflected by the few deals that emerged in the market as it seems as though it is only owners of larger more endowed vessels which are brave enough to take up the demo option under the current prevailing market conditions. Beyond the negative trends noted in terms of scrap prices, there has been a slow holding back of demo candidates, especially in the dry bulk market, as many feel that it is worth waiting for the next seasonal downturn to remove their tonnage rather than missing out on any final earnings they may accrue. This however is only truly an option for a few (notably those not faced with any class survey renewal costs) while even those few owners are playing a gamble between any hopeful gains from improved freight earnings and the prospect of facing even softer scrap prices. Especially as the market stands now with end buyers still facing difficulties, it looks as though any sudden influx in demo candidates would have the potential of plummeting the price of scrap to some of the lowest levels noted over the past 15 years”, the shipbroker concluded."
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#58
Here's how the Ezra bankruptcy filing is impacting Triyards
http://sbr.com.sg/shipping-marine/news/h...g-triyards
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
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#59
a little bit out of topic...but reading back the 2015 posts, GG, as the seasoned ex-analyst/current OPMI has had the bulk of his "O&G predictions" coming reasonably true.

personally i had benefitted from his warnings and cut losses on O&G exposure and resisted the temptation to catch a falling knife.

Wherever you are, GG, thanks alot.
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#60
(22-03-2017, 09:06 PM)weijian Wrote: a little bit out of topic...but reading back the 2015 posts, GG, as the seasoned ex-analyst/current OPMI has had the bulk of his "O&G predictions" coming reasonably true.

personally i had benefitted from his warnings and cut losses on O&G exposure and resisted the temptation to catch a falling knife.

Wherever you are, GG, thanks alot.

Hi Weijian,

Thanks for your acknowledgement. I saw a message from my kakis. The winter is far from over and pls be reminded that we are in 2017. You guys must be having a good time with dydx and boon hunting high and low for value plays for delistings and growth. Enjoy that as I have lost touch with SGX. 

My glasses are tuned to hunting for CONsters and avoiding them. Avoiding losing $ is my pillar for wealth preservation. Once preservation is achieved, $ will come.

My SGX exposure has been reduced to the lowest levels in decades as I can't see much road ahead despite all the selected parties primarily because SGX has been degraded to a market for so many big players that can't find a space in their primary exchanges. Even within my substantially reduced exposures - they comprises of various value traps that won't excite many at all and they largely have business exposure substantially outside Singapore and North Asia.

Bear in mind its 2017 and if we look back 1987, 1997 and 2007... even a student with the help of wiki will highlight the big events of global financial markets.

Don't let me the wet blanket as usual. You guys must do what u do best - keep making $ but remember - When it is too good to be true, its probably a fraud.

All the best
Irrelevant and Expired Always
GG
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