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15-07-2012, 10:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 23-10-2013, 03:27 PM by CityFarmer.)
ThaiBev has very stable income and revenue albeit from its Spirit business. Even during financial crisis and Military Coup in 2006-2007, company maintained profitability and revenue.
Company's Spirirt business has ~85-93% market share in Thailand. Very commanding!!
Morever, company has consistently maintained above 70% dividend pay-out ratio since listing in 2006.
Main issue of Alcohol business in Thailand is about frequent increases of Excise Tax. Thai's main religion being Budhist and politically not being stable hence regulatory not being stable, there could be possibility of total ban of Alcohol in Thailand?
Also the company has got numerous IR related awards, but I am wondering how is this possible with my following observations:
In Annual report:
1. No discloser of CEO and another Exec directors are son of Chairman (father) and Vice Chairman (mother)
2. No discloser of attendance of dirs for various committees (AC, RC, NC).
3. Too many Exec vice-chairmans (5)
4. No proper detail of agenda for AGM
5. Though 6 independent directors, only 1 director has accounting background
Anyone has analyzed this company?
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for Question 1, it is declared in the end of full year financial statement (FY2011).
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I like alcohol companies thaibev is a good company but I don't see how I will ever find a reason to own this. Reason being they have way too many shares.
Huge share float are hard to move prices tend to be very stable not moving up or down very much. I remember they issued something like 20bill over shares.
why? beats me, a deterrent perhaps to would be speculators or corporate raiders? Anybody wanting to corner this I think would need a huge financial outlay.
I remember in the old wallstraits forums there was some pre-ipo thread on thaibev some said such a high profile company first week debut will go as high as 45 cts but till now it has never even once touched 40 cts.
nice company but not vested
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interesting, ThaiBev is considering buying F&N & APB stakes from OCBC & Great Eastern.
in terms of both P/B & P/E, APB seems more expensive than ThaiBev itself.
to pay for the price, a right is possible?
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(18-07-2012, 08:12 AM)freedom Wrote: interesting, ThaiBev is considering buying F&N & APB stakes from OCBC & Great Eastern.
in terms of both P/B & P/E, APB seems more expensive than ThaiBev itself.
to pay for the price, a right is possible?
Apologies to ThaiBev shareholders, but, the 1st thing that came to my mind was,
癞蛤蟆想吃天鹅肉
or my lousy translation,
A Toad Lusting after a Swan's Meat
As an extreme example, it's like AOL taking over Time Warner... 
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18-07-2012, 12:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 18-07-2012, 09:42 PM by Temperament.)
(18-07-2012, 08:49 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (18-07-2012, 08:12 AM)freedom Wrote: interesting, ThaiBev is considering buying F&N & APB stakes from OCBC & Great Eastern.
in terms of both P/B & P/E, APB seems more expensive than ThaiBev itself.
to pay for the price, a right is possible?
Apologies to ThaiBev shareholders, but, the 1st thing that came to my mind was,
癞蛤蟆想吃天鹅肉
or my lousy translation,
A Toad Lusting after a Swan's Meat
As an extreme example, it's like AOL taking over Time Warner...
i think the same. i don't think "TOO-MUCH-SICK" is happy about it. Why? It's not for nothing LSY is FNN's Chaiman since 2007!
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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18-07-2012, 10:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 18-07-2012, 10:10 PM by freedom.)
Thai Beverage is buying 18% F&N stake at S$8.88 per share, less than 2 times book value. Thai Beverage itself is trading above 2 times book value.
plus Lee Rubber's stake, Thai Beverage is buying total 22%
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This is the beginning of a new poker game. I think Thai Bev will stop here and be part of a tri-partite relations with Kirin and Hineiken. The global alcoholic industry is a oligopoly.
Apart from taking over passive interests in F&N via mopping up of the historic Tan Chin Tuan legacy and create more value through more proactive partnership, there is no reason to go full out for a high leverage buyout since the organic growth in the existing markets are fairly low.
The new partnership could also be a prelude to enter Myanmar mkt given that Thai Bev is already very strong in Thai and APB in Indochina.
Dun get too excited. The big winner from the whole deal appears to be GE policy holders and with some accruals to OCBC and GE shareholders.
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Wah... like that also can... Implications for not just stocks like ThaiBev, GEH, OCBC, F&N and APB but also the smaller ones like FCT and FCOT...
SGX Annc by,
ThaiBev
OCBC
GEH
Go add up the $Bil / $Mil from the above... 
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From Yahoo Finance,
S&P places Thai Bev on CW neg on proposed acquisition
Extracts,
Rationale
The CreditWatch placement reflects our expectation that Thai Bev's proposed debt-funded acquisition will weaken its financial risk profile, which we currently assess as "modest", over the next 24 months. Thai Bev intends to acquire a 22% stake in Singapore-based conglomerate Fraser and Neave Ltd. (F&N; not rated) for Singapore dollar 2.8 billion.
We estimate that Thai Bev's debt-to-EBITDA ratio could weaken to about 3.2x in 2012, following the acquisition, from 1x in 2011. We expect the ratio to improve to less than 2.5x by 2014 at the earliest. Our EBITDA calculation includes Thai Bev's share of income from F&N. We also anticipate that Thai Bev's capital structure will weaken substantially over the next two years with a ratio of debt to debt plus equity above 50% until 2014 compared with 25.6% in 2011. These projections assume that the company's dividend payout will be 75%-80% of net income--in line with that in the past three years--and that the acquisition would be fully debt-funded.
The proposed acquisition is unlikely to positively influence our "satisfactory" assessment of Thai Bev's business risk profile for the next 24 months at least. We believe commercial synergies of the acquisition could take time to materialize, particularly given Thai Bev's minority stake.
The rating on Thai Bev reflects the company's dominant domestic market position in spirits and high and stable cash flows. Geographic concentration in Thailand, a still weak performance of Thai Bev's beer division, and a growth strategy that may translate into more aggressive financial policies partly offset these strengths.
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