Ascendas Hospitality Trust

[KopiKat]

Closed @ $0.88, unchanged from IPO price. Looks very likely to be Stabilizing Mgr in action during 5pm matching. Vol = 61,230,000 ; Range $0.87 to $0.895.

Pending the Stabilizing Mgr SGX Annc on how many they'd bought. So lazy...still no SGX Annc!

AHT's 1st day performance so far seems to mimic that of MCT which went IPO last year also at 88 cents. The subscription rate is also quite similar.

You're giving me HOPE... I place my BLIND FAITH on Ascendas since they have the same ultimate parent as MapleTree and hope that they are of the same calibre!

Are you in (?) and ready for the downward ride? Feels like the good ol' days!

just brought 10Lots at $0.885. -_- now $0.875

I got some at open. Q'd at $0.885 before open and got matched at $0.875! Got more towards closing at same price. But, seeing that it's not a 'Malaysia Boleh' (IHH & JB Foods) kind of stock, I'm mentally prepared for a 'Sabana' kind of ride (from IPO $1.05, dropped all the way to low 80s and even now, still below IPO price after close to 2yrs - Vested, but not @ IPO price)..

[swakoo]

Are you in (?) and ready for the downward ride? Feels like the good ol' days!

Am really swakoo about overseas properties and since AHT owns hotels in China, Japan and Australia, am not in. So u have to enjoy this ride on your own.

[KopiKat]

Are you in (?) and ready for the downward ride? Feels like the good ol' days!

Am really swakoo about overseas properties and since AHT owns hotels in China, Japan and Australia, am not in. So u have to enjoy this ride on your own.

OMG! Great advice! I better follow my GrandMaster and focus only in areas I'm familiar with ; better go contra off everything on Monday while the Stabilizing Mgr still has ample ammo to support it at $0.88...

[swakoo]

OMG! Great advice! I better follow my GrandMaster and focus only in areas I'm familiar with ; better go contra off everything on Monday while the Stabilizing Mgr still has ample ammo to support it at $0.88...

OMG! I think u are better off with your well-proven crystal ball than the nonsense from a mountain tortoise..

[KopiKat]

Closed @ $0.88, unchanged from IPO price. Looks very likely to be Stabilizing Mgr in action during 5pm matching. Vol = 61,230,000 ; Range $0.87 to $0.895.

Pending the Stabilizing Mgr SGX Annc on how many they'd bought. So lazy...still no SGX Annc!

They finally reported to work. From SGX Annc,

Total = 7,851,000
Range = $0.87 to $0.88

Ammo = 73,403,000

Hmmm... not too bad. I was beginning to worry that they may have used up a very substantial amount of their ammo, looking at the huge volume transacted.

---

[wrap]
[table=Date]
27 Jul 12 (Fri)
30 Jul 12 (Mon)
31 Jul 12 (Tue)
1 Aug 12 (Wed)
2 Aug 12 (Thu)
3 Aug 12 (Fri)
6 Aug 12 (Mon)
7 Aug 12 (Tue)
8 Aug 12 (Wed)
10 Aug 12 (Fri)
13 Aug 12 (Mon)
14 Aug 12 (Tue)
15 Aug 12 (Wed)
16 Aug 12 (Thu)
17 Aug 12 (Fri)
21 Aug 12 (Tue)
22 Aug 12 (Wed)
23 Aug 12 (Thu)
24 Aug 12 (Fri)[/table]
[table=Total Vol]
61,230,000
14,968,000
8,375,000
2,220,000
1,748,000
4,641,000
2,735,000
1,665,000
7,977,000
2,453,000
3,252,000
870,000
2,955,000
1,446,000
2,317,000
2,681,000
1,809,000
1,947,000
2,196,000[/table]
[table=Price]
$0.870 to $0.895
$0.870 to $0.885
$0.875 to $0.880
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.865 to $0.875
$0.860 to $0.870
$0.860 to $0.865
$0.860 to $0.865
$0.860 to $0.865
$0.865 to $0.870
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.870 to $0.875
$0.875 to $0.880[/table]
[table=Close]
$0.880
$0.880
$0.875
$0.875
$0.875
$0.870
$0.870
$0.870
$0.870
$0.865
$0.865
$0.865
$0.860
$0.870
$0.875
$0.875
$0.870
$0.875
$0.880[/table]
[table=Stabilizing]
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes[/table]
[table=Qty]
7,851,000
400,000
900,000
200,000
300,000
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
250,000
--
100,000
600,000
7,000
1,000,000
1,501,000[/table]
[table=Price]
$0.87 to $0.88
$0.88
$0.875
$0.875
$0.875
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
$0.86
--
$0.875
$0.87 to $0.875
$0.87
$0.875
$0.875 to $0.88[/table]
[table=Total Used]
7,851,000
8,251,000
9,151,000
9,351,000
9,651,000
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
9,901,000
--
10,001,000
10,601,000
10,608,000
11,608,000
13,109,000[/table]
[/wrap]

Note : Stabilization Action has ceased as of 24 Aug 12.


Post Mortem (Hind-Sight Analysis)
1. The only possible time to stag this IPO was on the 1st day when it hit a high of $0.895
2. No Stabilization Action from 3-Aug to 14-Aug, whereby price dropped to a low of $0.86
3. With the resumption of Stabilization Action, prices recovered and ended at IPO price of $0.88 on the last day of Stabilization Action
4. Based on (2) and (3), it was possible for a short term trade
5. Going forward, the chances of prices falling back towards the low of $0.86 is highly probable, with the cessation of Stabilizing Actions
6. The maiden DPU payout is expected to be for 1H13 (Sep) and subsequently, on a semi-annual basis

[RBM]

Worthwhile CNBC piece on their website today. AHT gets a positive mention ............

QUOTE
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As Singapore Reinvents Itself, Hoteliers Reap Windfall
Published: Wednesday, 5 Sep 2012 | 10:38 PM ET By: Neerja Pawha Jetley
CNBC Contributor

Even as Singapore’s trade-dependent economy faces risks in the wake of a global slowdown, one sector in this Southeast Asian island state stays upbeat. In this year’s Forbes rich list for Singapore released in July, 10 of the 40 wealthiest individuals were either hoteliers or property tycoons with a growing stake in the hospitality business – an indicator of the robustness of the industry.

The owner of budget chain, Hotel 81, Choo Chong Ngen made his debut on the list at No. 25 with a net worth of $690 million. Snapping at his heels at spot 26 was another newcomer Michael Kum with a net worth of $670 million. His M&L Hospitality Trust has many hotels in its portfolio. The largest listing in the city state’s otherwise lackluster market for new issuances was also from the hospitality sector, with Ascendas Hospitality Trust raising $600 million in July.

The hotel industry has had a great year so far with total room revenues over the first half hitting $1.1 billion, according to the Singapore Tourism Board, a jump of 6.6 percent year on year. The sector is reaping the benefits of a growing number of visitors, who continue to flock the tiny island for leisure and business. A financial hub and gateway to the Far East, Singapore has continuously been reinventing itself to attract visitors. From 2008 it has been hosting the Formula One’s only night race and in 2010 opened its first casino. It is also increasingly positioning itself as a medical tourism and educational hub. “Singapore’s unique proposition is that it has a good mix of demand drivers like medical, convention and education tourism that insulate it from the vagaries of leisure tourism. There is no one reason that draws visitors here,” says Robert McIntosh, Executive Director of CBRE Hotels, advisors to the hospitality industry.

Nearly 6 million people visited Singapore over January to May 2012, an increase of 12.3 percent year on year, boosting daily room rents and occupancy rates at its hotels, according to the Singapore Tourism Board. In the first quarter of the year average daily room (ADR) rates rose more than 11 percent year on year to $206 and revenue per available room (RevPar) grew 14.7 percent to $178, according to CBRE Hotels. The occupancy rate in the first quarter was 87 percent, the same as last year, but industry experts expect full year occupancy rates to beat that. “The historic high RevPar is an indication that the hospitality industry is performing very well. This reverses our earlier assessment that global events may cast a shadow on hotel performance in Singapore,” says McIntosh.

Singapore’s average room rents have beaten those of other big Asian cities. In June, for example, Singapore hotels were commanding an average daily room rent of $230, while in Seoul the rents were $185. In the first six months daily room tariffs have fallen 0.1 percent in neighboring Kuala Lumpur, while in Shanghai they are down 3.2 percent, according to CBRE Hotels.

Year-End Boost

As the global economic uncertainty worsens, there are doubts whether the sector will continue to deliver on good growth. The Ministry of Trade and Industry had said in August that tourism had begun to slow, according to a Reuters report. But Derek Tan, Hotel Industry Analyst at DBS Vicker Research, says the second half of the year could be even better for Singapore’s hotel industry as it is traditionally the peak period. “With a pick-up in conference activity and events, we believe the overall industry has room to catch up with industry leaders like Marina Bay Sands and Resort World Sentosa commanding occupancy above 90 percent despite the average ADR touching a high of $320 a night,” Tan said.

Marina Bay Sands, subsidiary of Las Vegas Sands, Singapore's iconic landmark of three hotel towers topped by a floating sky park that opened in 2010 has grown into its hottest tourist destination with its Las Vegas-style casino, while Resorts World Sentosa's key attraction include the Universal Studios theme park besides a casino.

Singapore is targeting 13.5 million to 14.5 million visitor arrivals in 2012, more than the 13.2 million people who visited Singapore last year, according to the Singapore Tourism Board. The city plans to achieve this by continuously adding to its list of attractions. In May 2012, Asia’s largest $400 million Marina Bay Cruise Center was completed raising Singapore’s potential as a cruise gateway to Southeast Asia. In June 2012 the Gardens By the Bay, a horticulture sanctuary of forest clouds and flower domes on 250 acres of reclaimed land was also launched.

As Singapore prepares to welcome even more tourists, the number of hotel rooms are expected to increase 26 percent by 2016 according to data from CBRE Hotels. But industry experts see no danger of a glut in the market. “The market has experienced tight room inventory recently. The additional supply would alleviate the room crunch experienced by Singapore,” says David Ling, Chairman, China and Southeast Asia at hotel consultancy HVS. Asok Hiranandani, proprietor of the real estate and hotel firm Royal Group Holdings, who also made it to the Forbes rich list this year, says, "For another five years, at least, I see the hotel boom continuing. Asia is poised to be the engine of growth and this will keep hotels in robust health."

© 2012 CNBC.com
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
UNQUOTE

Not Vested

[KopiKat]

Worthwhile CNBC piece on their website today. AHT gets a positive mention ............

A good read, thx!

That may explain why another Hospitality Trust, FE-HTrust (Hotel + Serviced Apt assets all in Singapore) did rather well with their recent IPO. Pre-IPO, the demand was strong and they managed to fix their IPO Price at the upper range of $0.93. Post-IPO, it'd opened strongly and the last close was $0.98. No action required for their Stabilizing Mgr who'd already announced they'd ceased their duties within a a few days. The forecast yield is at a low 5.685%, about the same as CDL H-Trust (majority of Hotel assets in Singapore) = 5.73% @ $2 (last close).

Unfortunately, AH-Trust Hotel assets are not in Singapore (majority in Australia plus 2 in China and 1 in Japan) and that may explain their lacklustre IPO performance. Stabilizing Mgr had to do their full tour of duty of 30-days, trying their best to stop it from dropping too much below IPO price. The surprising thing is that post-Stabilization, it seems to be stronger, although just hovering a tad above the IPO price ($0.88).

Am vested but no complaints as I'm greedy for the close to 8% yield....

[iammorris]

Given the recently runup of the price; the yeild has dropped. Is it a good time to take profit?

[KopiKat]

Given the recently runup of the price; the yeild has dropped. Is it a good time to take profit?

One of the possible reason that contributed to the run-up is that Aberdeen Asset Mgmt had been increasing their holdings in A-HTrust since they crossed the 5% level in Nov-12. Now holding 7.2228% (58,040,000 shares) after last Open Market Purchase of 3,093,000 shares on 14-Jan.

I continue to hold all my earlier purchases (IPOs + Jul-12 ones) although I have sold all my recent buys to switch my funds to other stocks.

You'll have to make your own decision based on your own strategy....

[dydx]

Is the just announced and proposed acquisition of the 306-room Park Hotel Clarke Quay for a total acquisition cost of approx. $308.0m a smart move?
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...4003D1C10/$file/Citrine_SGX_Announcement.pdf?openelement [announcement]
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...4003D1C10/$file/Press_release_A-HTRUST.pdf?openelement [press release]
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...4003D1C10/$file/Citrine_Announcement_Slides.pdf?openelement [presentation slides]

I guess only financial engineers investing other people's money - including using a proportionately high amount of debt financing - would cut and do such a deal!