If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
(23-04-2014, 11:36 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: The core steel business is not sustainable. If not, the company will not be cutting dividend.
The company is just lucky in that it is holding onto freehold industrial land. that is all.
Actually has Hupsteel cut dividends? I missed it. Last year's interim dividend was declared in Q3 isn't it? Are we making a conclusion too early?
I like to think that sustainability of dividends need to be assessed on two fronts - existing cash levels, dividend payout ratio (where EPS comes in).
If I have 1 mil in my bank account, even if I am paid 1k in salary monthly, I can still service a loan repayment of 2k. So is my loan repayment sustainable?
If im not wrong Hupsteel has maintained a dividend of 1cts most of the time every year. Not sure where the dividend cut mentioned came from. Also, I think its quite unfair to conclude that the company is 'just lucky' to have industrial freehold land. I think the fair thing to do is to ask is if the stock is undervalued at current market prices considering the company's profitability in existing business operations and the assets it is currently holding.
Would sincerely appreciate if someone can elaborate more regarding the past right issues and bonus issues. If the company would do the same thing again, what would be its consequences?
i think the market is quite efficient regarding rights issue or even preference shares issue (aka asking you for money). i may be stupid but not the whole market. This makes me think of Abraham Lincoln:- "........You can not fool all the people all the time". The Market can be efficient if given enough time. imho.
Eg. not long ago, NOL tried a preference share issue but failed to go through it for whatever reasons. NOL then had to sell their HQ at Pasir Panjang--(IIRC).
On the other hand, i love rights issue if there is an option of NIL-PAID-RIGHTS. It is really an opportunity for you to put on your thinking cap. In fact compare to IPO, is rights issue more risky?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
28-04-2014, 03:21 PM (This post was last modified: 28-04-2014, 03:36 PM by Curiousparty.)
Property redevelopment is a long long game...
One can wait for ages. this also means a lot of opportunity costs, IMHO....
(28-04-2014, 04:55 AM)heifien91 Wrote:
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
02-05-2014, 10:06 PM (This post was last modified: 02-05-2014, 10:07 PM by Curiousparty.)
Govt will continue to push out a lot of industrial land and space.
It is going to be an uphill battle for Hupsteel in its drive on industrial land redevelopment.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
04-05-2014, 04:23 PM (This post was last modified: 04-05-2014, 09:18 PM by Curiousparty.)
Hi heifien91
Good if you can take a look at New Toyo.
New Toyo's core business is rock solid ( although it has a tainted history with the tissue paper ) with their exclusive contract with BAT in Asia Pacific region (i.e. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia). EBITDA averaged $40mil over last 3 years. This is unlike Hupsteel which is struggling with their core business. New Toyo has a relationship with BAT since the early 2000s. Switching cost for BAT will be very high indeed. Had BAT used Amcor (instead of New Toyo/Tien Wah), BAT would probably have spent at least $100mil MORE on the printing cigarette cartons over the same period.
Plus New Toyo also have a portfolio of properties and investment properties in China, Australia and Malaysia, many of which are still severely undervalued in their books (e.g. 3.3 Ha of land at outskirt of Sydney near the new airport, land at Petaling Jaya section 13 slated to be the next "Orchard Road" of KL, etc). This is unlike Hupsteel that has all its land/properties concentrated only in Singapore. If anything happens to Spore, it will be gone case. (i.e. concentration risk).
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
(04-05-2014, 04:23 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Hi heifien91
Good if you can take a look at New Toyo.
New Toyo's core business is rock solid ( although it has a tainted history with the tissue paper ) with their exclusive contract with BAT in Asia Pacific region (i.e. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia). EBITDA averaged $40mil over last 3 years. This is unlike Hupsteel which is struggling with their core business. New Toyo has a relationship with BAT since the early 2000s. Switching cost for BAT will be very high indeed. Had BAT used Amcor (instead of New Toyo/Tien Wah), BAT would probably have spent at least $100mil MORE on the printing cigarette cartons over the same period.
Plus New Toyo also have a portfolio of properties and investment properties in China, Australia and Malaysia, many of which are still severely undervalued in their books (e.g. 3.3 Ha of land at outskirt of Sydney near the new airport, land at Petaling Jaya section 13 slated to be the next "Orchard Road" of KL, etc). This is unlike Hupsteel that has all its land/properties concentrated only in Singapore. If anything happens to Spore, it will be gone case. (i.e. concentration risk).
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
Hi Curiousparty, I understand that you highlighted New Toyo in this thread due to comparisons of the investment properties they hold VS their core biz. But pardon me, your opinion here about New Toyo seemed to be different from those that you posted under the New Toyo thread. Would be good if you can provide a clearer stand of your opinion about both their businesses and their corresponding stock prices so that we can have a better idea of your thought process. Thanks so much.
Never really posted in the New Toyo thread but I am currently invested in New Toyo too In terms of my valuations, New Toyo is deemed as undervalued as well. Furthermore, I see a catalyst - the owners stepping down as CEO, their indication of wanting to sell off the business, new CEO is someone whose experience is in M&As. Also, believe there are some talks in the Toyo thread about the land in Australia. All that said, I am actually invested in New Toyo, haha
(04-05-2014, 04:23 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Hi heifien91
Good if you can take a look at New Toyo.
New Toyo's core business is rock solid ( although it has a tainted history with the tissue paper ) with their exclusive contract with BAT in Asia Pacific region (i.e. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia). EBITDA averaged $40mil over last 3 years. This is unlike Hupsteel which is struggling with their core business. New Toyo has a relationship with BAT since the early 2000s. Switching cost for BAT will be very high indeed. Had BAT used Amcor (instead of New Toyo/Tien Wah), BAT would probably have spent at least $100mil MORE on the printing cigarette cartons over the same period.
Plus New Toyo also have a portfolio of properties and investment properties in China, Australia and Malaysia, many of which are still severely undervalued in their books (e.g. 3.3 Ha of land at outskirt of Sydney near the new airport, land at Petaling Jaya section 13 slated to be the next "Orchard Road" of KL, etc). This is unlike Hupsteel that has all its land/properties concentrated only in Singapore. If anything happens to Spore, it will be gone case. (i.e. concentration risk).
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
05-05-2014, 11:35 AM (This post was last modified: 05-05-2014, 11:54 AM by Curiousparty.)
I feel that it is quite unlikely for owners (i.e. Yen family) to sell off their printing business for now, at least for the foreseeable few years from now.
Not much reaction from market after the AGM
plus the current bids for New Toyo (pathetic 1 lot at 31 cents) seems to further confirm this point.
those who bought in anticipation of owners' selling off their business might be deeply disappointed...
(05-05-2014, 02:12 AM)heifien91 Wrote: Hi Curiousparty,
Never really posted in the New Toyo thread but I am currently invested in New Toyo too In terms of my valuations, New Toyo is deemed as undervalued as well. Furthermore, I see a catalyst - the owners stepping down as CEO, their indication of wanting to sell off the business, new CEO is someone whose experience is in M&As. Also, believe there are some talks in the Toyo thread about the land in Australia. All that said, I am actually invested in New Toyo, haha
(04-05-2014, 04:23 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Hi heifien91
Good if you can take a look at New Toyo.
New Toyo's core business is rock solid ( although it has a tainted history with the tissue paper ) with their exclusive contract with BAT in Asia Pacific region (i.e. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia). EBITDA averaged $40mil over last 3 years. This is unlike Hupsteel which is struggling with their core business. New Toyo has a relationship with BAT since the early 2000s. Switching cost for BAT will be very high indeed. Had BAT used Amcor (instead of New Toyo/Tien Wah), BAT would probably have spent at least $100mil MORE on the printing cigarette cartons over the same period.
Plus New Toyo also have a portfolio of properties and investment properties in China, Australia and Malaysia, many of which are still severely undervalued in their books (e.g. 3.3 Ha of land at outskirt of Sydney near the new airport, land at Petaling Jaya section 13 slated to be the next "Orchard Road" of KL, etc). This is unlike Hupsteel that has all its land/properties concentrated only in Singapore. If anything happens to Spore, it will be gone case. (i.e. concentration risk).
(27-04-2014, 10:42 PM)corydorus Wrote: If we are going for dividends, why not Telcos, Reits etc. Why do we want to take in so much assumptions or risks into consideration to have all the stars align to achieve it.
I may miss something. Do enlighten.
Telcos and Reits, sure they do offer way better dividend yields but honestly are they safe? Telcos..the singapore telcos are way overvalued and lets be honest, the service they offer aren't really that great. People are turning to third party providers for internet, given their stability and high speeds. In terms of mobile network, I seriously feel that the Singapore telco model is not sustainable. I remember reading the article about how Singtel (was it?) wanting to charge whatsapp for singaporeans using it?
Reits. Their dividend yields are really good say 7-8%. I won't say they aren't undervalued since I'm not an expert at how to really value reits. However, the biggest thing i fear about reits is that its only good as long as the music continues playing. Once interest rates start going up, how reits would perform, I am not sure. I mean to quote buffett, 'only when the tide goes out do we know who are swimming naked.'
Now why hupsteel? I feel that with all the debate of whether the are able to sustain the dividend yield, it is definitely valid. But at least at this point in time, hupsteel is still very much undervalued given their land which is currently underdevelopment and due in june/july? Hence, to me the dividend yield is just sort of the amount I'm getting waiting for this undervalued gem to realise its fair value. Fair value mainly coming from unlocking the value of the land. To my knowledge the steel business they are in is extremely cyclical (based on all the past posts I have been reading in this thread from the other forummers that are much more knowledgable than me. Hence, if it does reverse, its more of a bonus to me.
This is probably why I would pick hupsteel over say reits and telcos any other day. Of course, it would be ideal that we are able to find an undervalued company whose core business is doing really well (eg kingwan) but there are only so many of such companies. the main reason why i feel hupsteel is out of the radar is because of how the core business doesnt seem to be doing well. i first turned down the company because of that until i started researching into the land they own.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
HupSteel
In terms of my valuations, New Toyo is deemed as undervalued as well. Furthermore, I see a catalyst - the owners stepping down as CEO, their indication of wanting to sell off the business, new CEO is someone whose experience is in M&As. Also, believe there are some talks in the Toyo thread about the land in Australia. All that said, I am actually invested in New Toyo, haha 
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