HupSteel

[camelking]

60 to 80m value sounds pretty prime to me no matter where they are ...
however, from owner's perspective, even if it's worth 200m also no much use, cos i'm not selling the building and killing the cashcow...(unless something BIG happens)
However, i am keen in the steady rental cashflow coming in to fund my other plans, which is property development as i have free lands....

Operate the steel biz well, Milk the dividends yearly..keep everyone happy, long term substainability!
Share buy back every now and then.. and hopefully, 1 day delist quietly without paying too much..

So good, this type of biz and management. slow and steady... no need to rush...

What is the gross floor area of the warehouse everybody is talking?

I got on my desk a recent valuation report of a unit very very near to the one hupsteel got in Kim Chuan. Will be good to do a comparison.

[Bibi]

Base on 2012 AR,

1) cash = 61.8mil
2) borrowings = (22.8mil)
3) Financial assets = 14mil

1 - 2 + 3 = 8.7 cts.

If u take into acct of
4) Inventories at 50% discount = 65.9*0.5 = 32.95mil
5) Property, plant + equip at 50% dis = 27.183*0.5 = 13.6mil

4+5 = 7.6 cts.

So hmm, 18cts + 8.7cts = 26.7cts without considering 4 and 5. Did i calculate wrongly?

[camelking]

the valuation report stated $61xx per sq metre.

So, unless, the gross floor area is at least 13k sq metre, the value of the built up warehouse won't reach 80m.

[Stockerman]

Hi friends,

So the RNAV = 18 cents + 8.7 cents + 7.6 = approx 35 cents, to which we have yet to apply discount??
Is there overlap b/w "18 cents" and "7.6 cents"?

Tks.

[Stockerman]

Hi

For the benefits of forummers could someone help to work out how much is the best estimate of the "undervaluation" of Hupsteel based on the current market valuation ?

How can we value the 70 years old steel business ?

Many tks

[Stockerman]

Would we have a Spore's style property crash similar in magnitude to that of Irish?

If a crash happens, it does not matter whether it is residential, commercial or industrial. All will drop at same time...

People always think this will never ever happen to Spore. There are many external factors beyond Sinkie's control...


**********
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_prope...redictions

The fall in domestic and commercial property prices contributed to the Irish banking crisis and as of February 2013, prices continue to fall. House prices in Dublin are now down 56% from peak and apartment prices down over 62%.

[Stockerman]

A wall of sellers at 22.5 cents....Some news coming up? Delay in redevelopment plans?

[camelking]

The old warehouse is in the process of demolishing...
Guess the contruction work soon...

Not vested.

[Underdogger]

For New Toyo, based on the lastest 2Q results,

Gross cash = 14 cents (47% of market value)
Net cash = 6 cents (20% of MV)

The debt is at Tien Wah level, and there might not be the need to further pare down any more debt. Very strong cashflow from cashcow business...

http://www.tienwah.com/FinancialHighlights.htm

guys correct me if I am wrong but from my calculations if we are talking about hoarding cash,

the so called cash hoard of hupsteel is ~25% of market cap, minus the debts which are ~21%+ of market cap is not a lot of net cash.

Same as New toyo, cash 28.75% market cap - debt 13.33% is a bit more than hupsteel net cash but also not a lot of net cash.

on the other hand Neratel / Riverstone have 20% market cap as net cash with 0 debt

Namlee, techwah, spindex which i previously mentioned all have 38%+ market cap as net cash.

So with hupsteel and new toyo i dun think cash on hand is of such high relavance to the valuation. Rather the businesses and unlockable values are their strong points...
and as I said above definitely doesn't look like hoarding much compared to other small caps. maybe new toyo is starting to hoard a bit...

[Underdogger]

Btw, New Toyo’s investment properties are carried at $10.7mil on book, but estimated market value was $27mil (Dec 2012).

This will add 3.7 cents to New Toyo’s NAV of 37.45 cents.

This is before taking into account the fair value of properties under PPE.

For properties, there are plans to consolidate all the operations at Vietnam because of its lower cost structure.
a. Anzpac (76% owned by New Toyo) has a big piece of freehold land in Suburb of Sydney valued at $42.85 mil RM.
b. Tien Wah (54% owned by New Toyo) has factories on 2 plots of land at Petaling Jaya Section 13 - $27 mil RM.

By just selling away at fair market valuation and without taking into account redevelopment potential, we can add another 4.3 cents to New Toyo NAV.

All in all, it will be 37.45 + 3.7 + 4.3 = 45.45 cents (RNAV).

Not as under-valued compared to Hupsteel but still quite under-valued.

New Toyo has not gone with the property redevelopment track because there is no need to do so.
The core business has brought in very strong and stable cashflow throughout the economic cycle.