HupSteel

[GenS70]

@BigToe, for every value trap that unlocks value, there would probably be ~2-3 more that continues to stay the same for a long time. Time and time again, I see that if OPMIs can display the same temperament as the Big Boys (collectively the founders/entrepreneurs), ie. ability to endure illiquidity and able to hold for a long time, one has a high probability to get great rewards in the end. But alas, the ability to check brokerage prices any time in the day and calculate net worth (to the 2nd decimal place) on a spreadsheet - is like opium to the OPMI that constant triggers dopamine to our brain.

To behave like an owner is probably a bridge too far for regular wage-dependent joes. And this is more than just a case of being patient. Joe's confidence in a stock's price comes from movement of the price, not an understanding of the business and its economics. Anyway, this is just another one of those investment principles that look simple on paper, but is tremendously difficult to practice in reality.

Say a regular joe reads the numerous arguments of Hupsteel being undervalued in VB, back in 2012/2013. Joe proceeds to buy some shares, becomes excited at the initial jump in price, but becomes increasingly despondent over the next few years as price slowly slides over 2014 and 2015. Some may have sold at this point.

If joe had not bailed out yet, the sharp fall in 2016 may have rattled his nerves, with unrealized losses amounting to probably 40% at some point. Some more may have sold at this point.

The price recovered somewhat in 2017. Yet some more may have sold at this point.

The price continued to recover in 2018. Finally, the joe who bought in 2012/2013 is whole again. Together with dividends received, he/she may even feel lucky to have managed to make a gain. And yet some more may have sold at this point, feeling relieved at finally being rid of the 5-6 years of pain seeing red.

And finally, when the GO is made last week, there were no cheers. Because almost all have sold at some earlier point in time. 

Those who bought in 2012/2013, and endured the 6-7 years leading to last week, probably made a total gain of about 50%. 

The difference, of a year or so, of say selling in 2018 instead of 2019, can mean so much difference.

As specuvestor likes to say, there is no NG in life. And this is what joes fear most.

Moral of story = stock market is not the place for the average joe, they realized it and now stay far far away

However there will always be the average joe who strive hard enough to become the wise joe

End of the day, gotta do what we do best and if still no good enough keep honing it

[karlmarx]

Moral of story = stock market is not the place for the average joe, they realized it and now stay far far away

However there will always be the average joe who strive hard enough to become the wise joe

End of the day, gotta do what we do best and if still no good enough keep honing it

Everyone wants to have a crack at making big(ger) money, including yours truly. That's why we're here, right?

But things like sitting on your hands for 6-7 years is beyond what most imagine it to be. In that amount of time, a PhD candidate would have successfully completed and defended his/her dissertation, a fresh-grad associate would be promoted to management, and your children would have completed primary school. For holders of 'value stocks,' it is not certain whether there is anything to reap after that 6-7 years; they can only rely on faith and optimism -- that this just somehow works -- to carry them through. Investors who attempt this path will have their patience/psychological pain threshold continuously tested.

Unlike your boss who may reward you with a raise/promotion -- even though you haven't been meeting your KPI -- just because you've been working so hard, the market offers no such sympathies and pulls no punches, if you get things wrong. Yet, you feel compelled to do something -- all the talk about inflation and low deposit rates make you feel uneasy -- with the money in your bank account, which is piling up because a second property is prohibitively expensive. Don't want to put your money in CPF because there is no liquidity, don't want to put your money in insurance because of high expense ratio and no liquidity, and don't want to put your money in FD because it is still too little. So maybe, stocks. But it sounds scary, yet there seems like some people are making easy money from it (whatever the flavour of the month it is), maybe follow one of those 'gurus' who seems to be raking it in. But just to be safe, you'll only put in some of your money, those you can "afford to lose."

These seemingly well-meaning and prudent words -- frequently bandied about by beginners and 'experts' of 'value investing' -- along the lines of "you should never invest money you cannot afford to lose," reveal the highly speculative attitude that they take in investing. Probably the only times I have said anything like that to anyone going to the casinos of RWS and MBS, or to someone who has a habit of buying lottery. Instead, if the statement is reversed, that "you should only invest money that you cannot afford to lose," I believe most will get far better results; since they will be motivated to do everything they can to not lose the money.

[Big Toe]

Age is a huge consideration. Those in 20s-30s can afford to lose and still able to come back 40s 50s 60s.
But if one is retired, money will be harder to come by if one is not having a full time job, which is why one should always have a 2nd active, viable sustainable income to prepare for old age, and that excludes stocks and shares. Easier said than done, but who said anything about easy?

So to keep companies with low liquidity such as Hupsteel, one needs to be either young OR use money that you can afford to lose.
Imagine if you use the money needed for say, kids education, but the investment did not materialize within your anticipated investment timeline. What happens then? The cost of NOT having that money is > than the gains that maybe realized.

One should do everything we can to not lose money in either case. Personally I do not think there is a difference in stock selection based on what money is being used. But I believe that the absolute amount as well as the amount relative to % of personal wealth used may make a difference. I.e. when you use 0.5% of net worth @ $5000, you might not be too bothered as compared to $500 000 or 50% of one's net worth. Tio boh?

[Shiyi]

Given the large premium of the offer against its trading price prior to GO,
the share price is likely to fall steeply if the GO fails. Catch-22 for dissenters.

[axt]

Looking at the number of share traded over the past few days, it will be interesting to see if they can cross the 90%....

[bargainhunter]

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/pr...king-price

Hupsteel owns 4 of the 14 office units in this development.

[Bibi]

I like to ask a qn on behalf of a fren. His dad own some shares in Hupsteel but has passed on last year. His dad didnt make a will before pass on. So is there a default where one is deemed to accept the delisting offer if didnt submit the delisting form? Or considered as rejecting the delisting offer? If its the latter, will he receive a share certificate of Hupsteel?

[brattzz]

I like to ask a qn on behalf of a fren. His dad own some shares in Hupsteel but has passed on last year. His dad didnt make a will before pass on. So is there a default where one is deemed to accept the delisting offer if didnt submit the delisting form? Or considered as rejecting the delisting offer? If its the latter, will he receive a share certificate of Hupsteel?

1) need to get lawyer to assign CDP account to fren/family...need to do proper planning (cpfs/hdbs/condos...etc)
2) if Do nothing, just wait to see what is the outcome, 1) best case, delisted and money into the dad's bank account, 2) worst case, stuck with share certificate...

:O

[dreamybear]

Given the "Great Global Sale" happening currently, there are so many interesting / attractive counters that took most of my attention.

In the end, I didn't accept coz no more brain juice to think thru'whether I shd (a) just accept to replenish my cash holdings, (b) accept and if GO fails, buy back from the mkt coz likely to fall, or (c ) not accept and hope for a better offer(like Indofood which incidentally also never accept). Sigh ... I can't even remember my purchase price / year after getting "trapped" for so many years.

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Offer closing date for Hupsteel extended by two more weeks
Thu, Aug 15, 2019 - 9:58 PM
(https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...more-weeks)

The founding Lim family's voluntary conditional cash offer for steel trader Hupsteel has been extended from 5.30pm on Aug 16 to 5.30pm on Aug 30.

In its latest circular, the offeror emphasised that the offer price of S$1.20 per share is final and it does not intend to revise it.

It added that as at 5pm on August 15, it had amassed 83.416 per cent in shares and valid acceptances in the company, still shy of the 90 per cent it requires to succeed in its privatisation.

[brattzz]

6.6% to reach 90%, looks like may not happen in 2 weeks time!! 😅😅😅