UMS Holdings

[mslee888]

I am an optimist.
Although I prefer stocks that are more predictable, add or exit depends on price action...yes, i try to use some TA as well.

Price action for the past few days has been reasonably good. Possibly market thinks the upcoming results will be good. Bonus will be an increase in dividend payout.

Vested

[Boon]

The paring down of AMAT’s stake in UMS to below 5% had certainly served as the catalyst contributing to the “falling knife” saga.

Is AMAT still holding to any stake in UMS?

Is the “paring down of AMAT’s stakes in UMS” equates to “deterioration in the AMAT-UMS relationship” ?

To date, these questions remained unanswered - and different investors have different perceptions on these.

Meanwhile, share price of UMS has recovered this week to above SGD 60 cents for the first time since the “falling knife saga” – for buddies (Mr. Moderator included) who had shown bravery in catching the “falling knife” – that equates to about 10% capital gain (plus 1 cent 1Q dividend).

So, what has changed?

Investors perceptions, perhaps ?

(vested)

[specuvestor]

Fundamentals didnt change, or the trend that I believe it to be didnt change as well. But opportunity set changed depending on your timeline. This is a LIVE case why I said timing is important if one analyses the catalysts and you can be BOTH right and wrong. There is a catalyst coming next week.

IMHO 6 months later the opportunity set might be very different

Im a pragmatic investor There are no evergreens, even Coke or Gillette. There is only the analysis of MOS, moat and catalysts.

As discussed previously I think UMS coming results should be respectable. However I think investors should be aware of the catalysts on this stock and the timeline. It's the execution on the view that will make a difference. You can be BOTH right AND wrong depending on how you execute.

The 3 reasons I quoted is what IMHO is likely catalyst for volume to scale down. I could be totally wrong but I'm just inferring from what the major shareholders are thinking with their actions. Even if I am right it will be more than 6 months to prove ie I don't even think the next 2 quarters results will be affected

<snip>

Think we all need to have our own rough idea when is it good value and most important it is a level that we will not be "ai-wan" about if the stock does bounce

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2094-...l#pid86088

[Nick]

To aid Specuvestor's live experiment, let me be a test subject -

Sold 2/3 of my stake when news of AMAT sale was first announced.

Sold 1/3 of my stake after it XD recently.

A difficult decision since the yield and company's present fundamental was sound. But the uncertainty about its future with AMAT post-2017 was 'killing' me.

(Not Vested)

[specuvestor]

^^^ It's not really an experiment but I enjoy a live demonstration rather than 纸上谈兵 And I believe Nick knows what I am talking about. IMHO Nick is wrong on his 1/3 sale in the short run, but if we are talking about long run opportunity cost and risk control, he is most likely right. OTOH there can be those that get the FA wrong but the positioning right. You can be both right and wrong at the same time, depending on your timeline.

Similarly my interest and updates on the Argentina debt default. On hindside things always looks easy (see my avatar), only when you are involved in a LIVE event then one will know the issues involved.

FA is the basis of all investments, but timing and catalysts are selective to improve returns, as FA USUALLY doesn't change so fast.

[Boon]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

I broadly categorize possible outcomes into 5 :

Make your pick !

Pre-contract expiry in 2017 / Post-contract expiry in 2017
1) Very Negative (volume decrease) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
2) Neutral (business as usual) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
3) Neutral (business as usual) / Negative (contract renewed with “margin squeeze”)
4) Neutral (business as usual) / Neutral (business as usual – contract renewed)
5) Positive (more volume – same margin) / Positive (more volume – same margin - contract renewed)

My prediction (in the order from most likely to least likely to happen): 4, 5, 3, 2, 1

I am an optimist – Ha-ha!

(vested)

My prediction with a similar order : 3,4,5,2,1

(vested)

Hi Nick,

What is your prediction on this ?

2,3,1,4,5 ?

I think the "experiment" would be "incomplete" without your prediction on this, ha-ha !

(vested)

[CityFarmer]

^^^ It's not really an experiment but I enjoy a live demonstration rather than 纸上谈兵 And I believe Nick knows what I am talking about. IMHO Nick is wrong on his 1/3 sale in the short run, but if we are talking about long run opportunity cost and risk control, he is most likely right. OTOH there can be those that get the FA wrong but the positioning right. You can be both right and wrong at the same time, depending on your timeline.

Similarly my interest and updates on the Argentina debt default. On hindside things always looks easy (see my avatar), only when you are involved in a LIVE event then one will know the issues involved.

FA is the basis of all investments, but timing and catalysts are selective to improve returns, as FA USUALLY doesn't change so fast.

Yes, you will never know the "struggle" on decision, unless involve in a LIVE event.

FA (include the analysis on future catalysts) is the base for sell/buy decision. Once the decision made, the execution can be improved by a right timing. That is the right order I always presume.

[Boon]

^^^ It's not really an experiment but I enjoy a live demonstration rather than 纸上谈兵 And I believe Nick knows what I am talking about. IMHO Nick is wrong on his 1/3 sale in the short run, but if we are talking about long run opportunity cost and risk control, he is most likely right. OTOH there can be those that get the FA wrong but the positioning right. You can be both right and wrong at the same time, depending on your timeline.

Similarly my interest and updates on the Argentina debt default. On hindside things always looks easy (see my avatar), only when you are involved in a LIVE event then one will know the issues involved.

FA is the basis of all investments, but timing and catalysts are selective to improve returns, as FA USUALLY doesn't change so fast.

With the benefit of hindsight,

Those who had sold all his/her stakes just before ex-bonus date would have maximized his/her profit – the price was at the highest – (act 1).

After the disclosure of AMAT’s selling and after ex-bonus, while the knife was still falling

Those who had sold on the next day or two were doing not too bad either – but one still stuck with the bonus issues – as they had yet to be accredited at that time – (Act 2).

Vested or not vested – those who were dared to “short” - before the “falling knife” had stopped falling - would have had make money as well – (Act 3).

After the bonus share had been issued, and the “falling knife” had stopped falling (in range bound situation),

Those who had only decided to sell all his/her stakes (original shares + bonus) then, were the worst performers - (Act 4)

After the price has rebounded to above 60 cents now,

Those who had sold off their bonus shares earlier (before the rebound) would probably have regretted now – (Act 5)

Those who are still holding on to their bonus shares seem to be the right choice, in the short run – (Act 6).

Those who had bought in at the tail-end of the falling knife and before the recent rebound are sitting on paper profit of about 10% - (Act 7).

Those who have not sold his/her shares since – are somewhere in between – (Act 8)

In summary,
- the right course of actions to be taken seemed to be: Act 2, Act 3, Act 6 & Act 7
- the wrong course of actions seemed to be Act 4 and Act 5
- Act 8 is somewhere in between.

Right or Wrong - be it short run or long run – could only be known Ex-Post (after the fact) – Before the fact (Ex-ante), who knows if it will turn out to be right or wrong?

(vested)

[Nick]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

I broadly categorize possible outcomes into 5 :

Make your pick !

Pre-contract expiry in 2017 / Post-contract expiry in 2017
1) Very Negative (volume decrease) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
2) Neutral (business as usual) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
3) Neutral (business as usual) / Negative (contract renewed with “margin squeeze”)
4) Neutral (business as usual) / Neutral (business as usual – contract renewed)
5) Positive (more volume – same margin) / Positive (more volume – same margin - contract renewed)

My prediction (in the order from most likely to least likely to happen): 4, 5, 3, 2, 1

I am an optimist – Ha-ha!

(vested)

My prediction with a similar order : 3,4,5,2,1

(vested)

Hi Nick,

What is your prediction on this ?

2,3,1,4,5 ?

I think the "experiment" would be "incomplete" without your prediction on this, ha-ha !

(vested)

Hi Boon,

I will attempt to predict:

4, 3, 5, 1, 2

[CityFarmer]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

I broadly categorize possible outcomes into 5 :

Make your pick !

Pre-contract expiry in 2017 / Post-contract expiry in 2017
1) Very Negative (volume decrease) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
2) Neutral (business as usual) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
3) Neutral (business as usual) / Negative (contract renewed with “margin squeeze”)
4) Neutral (business as usual) / Neutral (business as usual – contract renewed)
5) Positive (more volume – same margin) / Positive (more volume – same margin - contract renewed)

My prediction (in the order from most likely to least likely to happen): 4, 5, 3, 2, 1

I am an optimist – Ha-ha!

(vested)

My prediction with a similar order : 3,4,5,2,1

(vested)

Hi Nick,

What is your prediction on this ?

2,3,1,4,5 ?

I think the "experiment" would be "incomplete" without your prediction on this, ha-ha !

(vested)

Hi Boon,

I will attempt to predict:

4, 3, 5, 1, 2

This is an important input, Thanks

The common among the buddy's predictions are, 1,2 are the least possible, which is not too bad.

I reckon Nick has succumbed to fear this round. Well, I succumbed to fear before, even with a very favourable prediction e.g. Sheng Siong IPO