UMS Holdings

[kyle]

China aims for semiconductor industrial output of CNY350 billion in 2015

Jul 25, 2014

Since the implementation of China's 12th Five Year Plan in 2011, the country's semiconductor industry has shown a steady yearly revenue growth from CNY179.61 billion (US$29 billion) in 2010 to CNY240.8 billion in 2013, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, thanks to a steep rise in sales of entry-level and mid-range smartphones, in addition to the continued expansion in foundry and assembly house production capacity, according to Digitimes Research.

This growth rate compares favorably with the global semiconductor industry annual growth rate of less than 5% each year from 2011 to 2013, with 2012 even registering a negative growth rate of -2.7%, due to lower-than-expected end market demand and inventory adjustments.

Based on the assumption that 2014 will see better global economic prospects than 2013 and the shipment of mobile devices including entry-level and mid-range smartphones and tablets will be able to maintain a momentum of double-digit percentage growth, Digitimes Research estimates that revenues of the China semiconductor industry are likely to increase to CNY267.37 billion in 2014, an annual growth rate of 11% from 2013 and a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% from 2010, which far surpasses the CAGR of 1.7% of the global semiconductor industry in the same period.

However, the goal of CNY350 billion for the China semiconductor industry in 2015, laid out by China's State Council in the "National Semiconductor Industry Development Guidelines" promulgated on June 24, 2014, may be out of reach.

According to a recent Digitimes Research Special Report, the State Council has responded to this challenge by also publishing guidelines to strengthen government support for China's semiconductor industry, including expanding tax benefits mentioned in the State Council Document 4 (2011) for IC design houses and foundries to testing firms. The central government also plans to set up a national industry investment fund of CNY120 billion. Digitimes Research believes through the investment fund support, China will increase its capabilities for advanced processes on 12-inch wafers. In addition, there will be more China-based semiconductor firms merging and more acquisitions of international firms by China-based firms.

http://www.emsnow.com/npps/story.cfm?pg=story&id=54437

[Boon]

Chinese Vendors Outpace the Market as Smartphone Shipments Grow 23.1% Year over Year in the Second Quarter, According to IDC

29 Jul 2014

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. July 29, 2014 – The worldwide smartphone market grew 23.1% year over year in the second quarter of 2014 (2Q14), establishing a new single quarter record of 295.3 million shipments, according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Following a very strong first quarter, the market grew 2.6% sequentially, fueled by ongoing demand for mobile computing and an abundance of low-cost smartphones. Second quarter shipments were in line with IDC's forecast and all expectations are that the market will continue apace in the second half of the year and surpassing 300 million units for the first time ever in a single quarter in 3Q14.

"A record second quarter proves that the smartphone market has plenty of opportunity and momentum," said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Right now we have more than a dozen vendors that are capable of landing in the top 5 next quarter. A handful of these companies are currently operating in a single country, but no one should mistake that for complacency – they all recognize the opportunity that lies outside their home turf."

Despite a challenging quarter for Samsung, and to a lesser extent Apple, the strong market demand boosted results for most smartphone vendors. Emerging markets supported by local vendors are continuing to act as the main catalyst for smartphone growth. Among the top vendors in the market, a wide range of Chinese OEMs more than outpaced the market in 2Q14. By far the most impressive was Huawei, nearly doubling its shipments from a year ago, followed by another strong performance from Lenovo.

"As the death of the feature phone approaches more rapidly than before, it is the Chinese vendors that are ready to usher emerging market consumers into smartphones. The offer of smartphones at a much better value than the top global players but with a stronger build quality and larger scale than local competitors gives these vendors a precarious competitive advantage," said Melissa Chau, Senior Research Manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker......................................................................

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25015114

(vested)

[Boon]

Still going strong.

Monthly figures for both billing and booking for each of the first 6 months of 2014 were higher than the corresponding monthly figures last year.

Quarterly figures for both billings and bookings for 2Q2014 were higher than 1Q2014.

June 2014 bookings are at the highest level since May 2012 - Could this strong momentum continue through to 2H, bearing in mind that 2H is normally weaker than 1H ? Well, have to wait and see !

(vested)
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts June 2014 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.09

SAN JOSE, Calif. — July 21, 2014 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.47 billion in orders worldwide in June 2014 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.09, according to the June EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 1.09 means that $109 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in June 2014 was $1.47 billion. The bookings figure is 4.3 percent higher than the final May 2014 level of $1.41 billion, and is 10.0 percent higher than the June 2013 order level of $1.33 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in June 2014 was $1.34 billion. The billings figure is 4.8 percent lower than the final May 2014 level of $1.41 billion, and is 10.4 percent higher than the June 2013 billings level of $1.21 billion.

“Semiconductor equipment bookings are at the highest level since May 2012,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “The strength of the June bookings (three-month average) substantiate the outlook for strong double-digit sales growth this year.”

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.


Billings (3-mo. avg)
Bookings (3-mo. avg)
Book-to-Bill

January 2014
1,233.2 ( 27.0% HIGHER than January 2013 billing of USD 0.968 billion )
1,280.3 ( 19.0% HIGHER than January 2013 booking of USD 1.08 billion )
1.04

February 2014
1,288.3 (32% HIGHER than February 2013 billing of USD 0.9747 billion )
1,295.4 (21.0% HIGHER than February 2013 booking of USD 1.07 billion )
1.01

March 2014
1,225.5 (23.7% HIGHER than March 2013 billing of USD 0.991 billion)
1,297.7 (18% HIGHER than March 2013 booking of USD 1.10 billion)
1.06

April (2014)
1,403.2 (28.7% HIGHER than April 2013 billing of USD 1.09 billion)
1,443.0 (23.3% HIGHER than April 2013 booking of USD 1.17 billion)
1.03

May 2014 (Final)
1,407.8 (15.4% HIGHER than May 2013 billing of USD 1.22 billion)
1,407.0 ( 6.6% HIGHER than May 2013 booking of USD 1.32 billion)
1.00

June 2014 (prelim)
1,340.4 (10.4% HIGHER than June 2013 billing of USD 1.21 billion)
1,467.1 ( 10.0% HIGHER than June 2013 booking of USD 1.33 billion)
1.09

http://www.semi.org/en/node/50651?id=highlights

Didn't realize there is a chart as well from SEMI.

[Image: rumyyb.jpg]

[CityFarmer]

The company 1Q interim dividend of 1 cent per share, is paid today. The next interim dividend should be coming, with the 2Q result. The result is normally announced around early Aug.

(vested)

[specuvestor]

As discussed previously I think UMS coming results should be respectable. However I think investors should be aware of the catalysts on this stock and the timeline. It's the execution on the view that will make a difference. You can be BOTH right AND wrong depending on how you execute.

The 3 reasons I quoted is what IMHO is likely catalyst for volume to scale down. I could be totally wrong but I'm just inferring from what the major shareholders are thinking with their actions. Even if I am right it will be more than 6 months to prove ie I don't even think the next 2 quarters results will be affected

<snip>

Think we all need to have our own rough idea when is it good value and most important it is a level that we will not be "ai-wan" about if the stock does bounce

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2094-...l#pid86088

[Greenhorns]

The company still profitable, dividend is intact, Semi-Con industry look bright across the region. The only thing that irk Mr market is the unclear direction about amtek's ceasing to be SSH.

[Boon]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

I broadly categorize possible outcomes into 5 :

Make your pick !

Pre-contract expiry in 2017 / Post-contract expiry in 2017
1) Very Negative (volume decrease) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
2) Neutral (business as usual) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
3) Neutral (business as usual) / Negative (contract renewed with “margin squeeze”)
4) Neutral (business as usual) / Neutral (business as usual – contract renewed)
5) Positive (more volume – same margin) / Positive (more volume – same margin - contract renewed)

My prediction (in the order from most likely to least likely to happen): 4, 5, 3, 2, 1

I am an optimist – Ha-ha!

(vested)

[CityFarmer]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

I broadly categorize possible outcomes into 5 :

Make your pick !

Pre-contract expiry in 2017 / Post-contract expiry in 2017
1) Very Negative (volume decrease) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
2) Neutral (business as usual) / Very Negative (contract not renewed)
3) Neutral (business as usual) / Negative (contract renewed with “margin squeeze”)
4) Neutral (business as usual) / Neutral (business as usual – contract renewed)
5) Positive (more volume – same margin) / Positive (more volume – same margin - contract renewed)

My prediction (in the order from most likely to least likely to happen): 4, 5, 3, 2, 1

I am an optimist – Ha-ha!

(vested)

My prediction with a similar order : 3,4,5,2,1

(vested)

[orangetea]

Looks like the falling knife episode is over and looks safe to accumulate and employ the average up strategy slowly.

Hopefully no more surprises.

(Vested)

[valuebuddies]

I won't call it over until the quarterly earnings announcement in the coming weeks, and there is no reason for me to apply the average up strategy as this would eventually bring up my average cost.

Though everybody expect the prospect in semicon remain good, I am not surprise that the contract with AMAT is not renewed after 2017. I view AMAT's equity involvement in UMS is due to the close supplier-customer relationship, and thus the cease of AMAT's equity involvement would actually signifies the termination of the contract, perhaps due to AMAT found synergies from the merging of TEL.

In terms of prediction just for the sake of fun, my order would be: 2, 4, 3, 5, 1

Yes, I am more a pessimists, I even puzzle whether AMAT could terminate the contract earlier.