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Why pare down some stake at this point in time when markets are fearful? You're only on the losing end..? Of course the argument can go that its to reduce short term losses, however, to me when fundamentals of the company are still intact we should just calm ourselves and wait for the dust to settle before making any decisions (buy/sell). Any decisions made now would be mostly ruled by emotions.
(vested)
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(11-06-2014, 01:32 AM)Tiggerbee Wrote: Rather than taking 2 years for UMS to acquire the technology know how, it probably take about 2 years for UMS supplied parts and Endura system to pass the clean room qualification criteria as the Enduta system and the parts shipped from UMS had to be proven to be not generating foreign particles that are going to end up as killer defects on customers' wafers. The testing system are copied direct from AMAT plants and any engineer trained by AMAT can easily perform the assembly and testing operations. AMAT probably has other vendors supplying the same Endura components and consumables so those parts are already qualified. What I'm saying is that any other existing vendor that's already supplying the parts can easily carry out the assembly and testing operations on the Endura. There are many Taiwanese and Korean companies that are capable of performing such operations. These vendors purchased 2nd hand semiconductor systems to refurb and final test these tools to re sell them to the wafer fabs.
I guess that UMS is supplying parts like the Endura mainframe and chambers as it's not cost effective to ship them from elsewhere. UMS probably also supply other components like skit valves and other moving parts made of aluminum as UMS has the expertise to machine these parts. That explains why their revenue consisted not only of assembly and testing services but also Endura parts and consumables.
In summary, what I'm saying is that the entry barrier is low for existing competitors in the Semicon industry, especially when the IP and specs of the manufactured parts belong to AMAT. So why does AMAT gives most of the orders to UMS in the past and not split the orders among different vendors? Perhaps it's because of Andy's relationship with AMAT senior management, or AMAT does not trust the Taiwanese and Koreans (there are OEM parts available from Korean and Taiwanese suppliers). Perhaps that's why UMS is enjoying a "loyalty margin".
UMS has made a representation that the barrier of entry is HIGH
Our Edge
3. Entrenched Relationship with Top Global Customers
•Serves a select group of leading global corporations (eg, Applied Materials Inc, Schlumberger)
•Deep & continuous collaborative effort from R&D to manufacturing of components to subassembly to surface finishing
•
High barrier of entry for competitors
•Management criteria for customer acquisition:
•Earnings accretive
•
Healthy and sustainable margin
http://www.set.or.th/th/asean_exchanges/..._ASEAN.pdf
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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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I agree we should try to control our emotions even though it seems painful at this moment. Rash decision to add or cut may lead to regrets later.
Let the dust settle and also the price to stabilise before making a buy/sell decision.
based on facts, the yield is very good at this moment. The rest are just speculative views...IMO..
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In fact all started from AMAT's selling, it could be Andy felt nervous and throw big chunk of his shares. As I said earlier Andy tend to sell regardless good or bad time, so to me just his "panic selling" action. Anyone pick up more when price cheap?
[ vested and do nothing ]
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Yea i'm add more lots @ 54cents. Business fundamentals are there, the frantic sale after bonus and sales by AMAS & Andy may just create an opportunity to enter at this current price,personally i dont see why the value now is not attractive. But the outlook for next year onward will be of concern, we know that its a cylincal coy. Excerise with cautious buddies.