China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings

[Bluechipfan]

How enduring is Sunsine competitive edge, given China's extremely competitive landscape?
(economies of scale, attention to environmental protection, accreditation, rate of vehicle growth, great leadership?)


Some questions to ponder over:-
a. How far is it ahead of its nearest competitors?
b. Is there no way for its competitors to catch up?
c. To what extent will vehicle control in large cities impact on the demand for sunsine's product?
d. Is there any succession issue when chairman retires? (e.g. tussle for power, etc)

Lots of example from other S-chip to learn from...
a. many investors once thought China Essence was at the Top of the World when its share price was more than $1. It is now trading at less than 1 cent.
b. As we have seen in Sinograndness case, there is no way for share price to keep shooting to the moon every week.
c. Dukang - it is trading at 13 cents now. Its peak was 90 cents.

If the company is so good, why didn't the company do more share buyback?
Is it because they cannot afford the cash or is it because they have better use for their cash else where?
Or the company thinks the share price is already "too expensive" to do share buy-back?

No matter how good a counter it might be, fundamentally, it is an S chip, and all the usual cautionary notes/rules for S-chip counters would apply.
tks.

In 2011 Nestle bought 60% of Hsu Fu Chi, a Guangdong based co., at 26 times earnings.

The reference is pretty irrelevant. Hsu Fu Chi is in food industrial, while the company is in chemical processing??

If co turns into one of the common poison "S Chips" then may be PER zero...

Not Vested
GG

Here we go again despite forumers here providing objective information to show Sunsine is a sound company. Even city farmer is cautiously optimistic.

What's the point of highlighting failed China companies? I can also give you a list of failed Singapore companies, MNC, American companies, etc if you so wishes. Might as well just say history prove you right that every great empire, dynasty and business entity will all fall and ruin one day regardless of how successful they once were. Go tell Wall Street investors to divest from Alibaba because its an A chip (America listed China stock) just like S chip here.

I dont know your intention but your action is really disgusting. You have once benefited from it now you have divested and you can't wait to see it fail?

[Curiousparty]

Although history is no predicator for the future, history has told us that failure rates for S-chips are much higher no matter where it is listed.

Just need to look at super high profile S-chip cases in the USA.

http://singaporeuncletrader.wordpress.co...ore-loses/

How enduring is Sunsine competitive edge, given China's extremely competitive landscape?
(economies of scale, attention to environmental protection, accreditation, rate of vehicle growth, great leadership?)


Some questions to ponder over:-
a. How far is it ahead of its nearest competitors?
b. Is there no way for its competitors to catch up?
c. To what extent will vehicle control in large cities impact on the demand for sunsine's product?
d. Is there any succession issue when chairman retires? (e.g. tussle for power, etc)

Lots of example from other S-chip to learn from...
a. many investors once thought China Essence was at the Top of the World when its share price was more than $1. It is now trading at less than 1 cent.
b. As we have seen in Sinograndness case, there is no way for share price to keep shooting to the moon every week.
c. Dukang - it is trading at 13 cents now. Its peak was 90 cents.

If the company is so good, why didn't the company do more share buyback?
Is it because they cannot afford the cash or is it because they have better use for their cash else where?
Or the company thinks the share price is already "too expensive" to do share buy-back?

No matter how good a counter it might be, fundamentally, it is an S chip, and all the usual cautionary notes/rules for S-chip counters would apply.
tks.

In 2011 Nestle bought 60% of Hsu Fu Chi, a Guangdong based co., at 26 times earnings.

The reference is pretty irrelevant. Hsu Fu Chi is in food industrial, while the company is in chemical processing??

If co turns into one of the common poison "S Chips" then may be PER zero...

Not Vested
GG

Here we go again despite forumers here providing objective information to show Sunsine is a sound company. Even city farmer is cautiously optimistic.

What's the point of highlighting failed China companies? I can also give you a list of failed Singapore companies, MNC, American companies, etc if you so wishes. Might as well just say history prove you right that every great empire, dynasty and business entity will all fall and ruin one day regardless of how successful they once were. Go tell Wall Street investors to divest from Alibaba because its an A chip (America listed China stock) just like S chip here.

I dont know your intention but your action is really disgusting. You have once benefited from it now you have divested and you can't wait to see it fail?

[mslee888]

Its Ok to have sceptics like curious party that is always suspicious of S chips. We can choose to listen or ignore. Its always our choice.
I prefer to take a view that grapes are not always sour. We just have to do own due diligence when investing.
I am still vested in China Sunsine as I see the company is still in a sweet spot now. So no need to worry when others like to throw a wet blanket. Just assume they are envious or sour grapes and just wait the shares to outperform.

Vested

[Curiousparty]

Its Ok to have sceptics like curious party that is always suspicious of S chips. We can choose to listen or ignore. Its always our choice. I prefer to take a view that grapes are not always sour. We just have to do own due diligence when investing. I am still vested in China Sunsine as I see the company is still in a sweet spot now. So no need to worry when others like to throw a wet blanket. Just assume they are envious or sour grapes and just wait the shares to outperform. Vested

One needs to appreciate and understand the mentality of s-chip companies . Why did they want to list in SGX ? Who has the last laugh - it remains to be seen ...

[Bluechipfan]

Its Ok to have sceptics like curious party that is always suspicious of S chips. We can choose to listen or ignore. Its always our choice. I prefer to take a view that grapes are not always sour. We just have to do own due diligence when investing. I am still vested in China Sunsine as I see the company is still in a sweet spot now. So no need to worry when others like to throw a wet blanket. Just assume they are envious or sour grapes and just wait the shares to outperform. Vested

One needs to appreciate and understand the mentality of s-chip companies . Why did they want to list in SGX ? Who has the last laugh - it remains to be seen ...

Why not you tell us since you appear to know? Maybe by telling us you can help us to make a better informed decision? What's the point of all this insinuation? What you want people to think? They have hideous agenda? Or are you also saying SGX is sub standard anyhow allow companies to list?

[weijian]

It is not an unreasonable statement from GG, IMO, even though I am cautiously optimistic on the company.

It didn't say the company is worth-less, but it is saying the company will worth much less IF it behaves as those lousy S-Chip counters.

First and foremost, i have no vested interests in any of GG's recommedations or China sunshine. So i suspect i dont suffer from any biases or halo effects.

I am afraid I have to agree with specuvestor/bluechipfan on this. While personally, i have learnt a great deal from GG's postings of his original analysis or news articles, I think for this matter, GG can do much better. It takes a lifetime to build a reputation, but only a single moment to lose it.

VB forumers know the drill - An opinion or statement of GG's sort could be substantiated with analyses (as examples below):
- depleting cash flow with large receivables, and suspected tunnelling capex which doesn't make sense.
- large cash position does not reconcile with corresponding actions (not paid as dividends or sharebuyback, low interest income, rights/convertible loans at non-sensible terms)
- Ridiculous "1-in-50-year kinda flood" events that generally are unheard of in peaceful Spore - missing abalones with their shells gone as well. Overnight office fire wipes out all papers.
- Not on 1 of the top XX tax payers in the province (greenrookie was the originator?)

[mslee888]

Its Ok to have sceptics like curious party that is always suspicious of S chips. We can choose to listen or ignore. Its always our choice. I prefer to take a view that grapes are not always sour. We just have to do own due diligence when investing. I am still vested in China Sunsine as I see the company is still in a sweet spot now. So no need to worry when others like to throw a wet blanket. Just assume they are envious or sour grapes and just wait the shares to outperform. Vested

One needs to appreciate and understand the mentality of s-chip companies . Why did they want to list in SGX ? Who has the last laugh - it remains to be seen ...

Well, as I said earlier, its fine since every investment decision does carry a certain risk. Its fine to skip if you have a phobia, most probably by some previous bad experiences with S chips. I can understand that. As to laugh or cry..it always depends on your exit point. I think price is near 52 weeks high. Those not comfortable, can just sell or trim position..I guess most investors should be making some good money now.

[Bluechipfan]

Its Ok to have sceptics like curious party that is always suspicious of S chips. We can choose to listen or ignore. Its always our choice. I prefer to take a view that grapes are not always sour. We just have to do own due diligence when investing. I am still vested in China Sunsine as I see the company is still in a sweet spot now. So no need to worry when others like to throw a wet blanket. Just assume they are envious or sour grapes and just wait the shares to outperform. Vested

One needs to appreciate and understand the mentality of s-chip companies . Why did they want to list in SGX ? Who has the last laugh - it remains to be seen ...

Well, as I said earlier, its fine since every investment decision does carry a certain risk. Its fine to skip if you have a phobia, most probably by some previous bad experiences with S chips. I can understand that. As to laugh or cry..it always depends on your exit point. I think price is near 52 weeks high. Those not comfortable, can just sell or trim position..I guess most investors should be making some good money now.

This is helpful. Objective in sharing opinion and view. In fact, I welcome forumers to play devil advocate because my paper profit is mounting and it is quite substantial and I want to be extra vagilant. I don't want to exit too early as it will make me a trader, which I am not and don't want to.

We all know sunsine is going to have a record year this current FY. If their book is in order and no fraud or suggestion of fraud, which shouldn't be as they are able to pay regular dividends and account for all expenses incurred, then the next thing I look for is whether the growth can be sustained beyond this FY. As it is, the grapevine expectation is an increase in dividend! This I will take note too as it would quash the notion or suggestion of accounting fraud.

So, please don't hold back if anyone has constructive concerns and willing to share with VB community but don't bother if all you want to say is :'huh, S chip? Pui.....'

[weijian]

hi bluechipfan,
I do not have knowledge of this company, but i might share something about the METHOD.

Whether traders or investors alike, whenever we enter into a position, we should already have the exit plan as well. If you havent had thought out that exit plan when you first got vested, it would be great for u to think about this in your next investment. Of course, exit plans should be updated whenever new information is available.

Here's something from Seth Klarman to ponder about:
"If I buy a bond at 50 and think it’s worth par in three years but it goes to 90 the year I bought it, sell it because the upside/downside has totally changed. The remaining return is not attractive compared with the risk of continuing to hold."

[Bluechipfan]

hi bluechipfan,
I do not have knowledge of this company, but i might share something about the METHOD.

Whether traders or investors alike, whenever we enter into a position, we should already have the exit plan as well. If you havent had thought out that exit plan when you first got vested, it would be great for u to think about this in your next investment. Of course, exit plans should be updated whenever new information is available.

Here's something from Seth Klarman to ponder about:
"If I buy a bond at 50 and think it’s worth par in three years but it goes to 90 the year I bought it, sell it because the upside/downside has totally changed. The remaining return is not attractive compared with the risk of continuing to hold."

Thanks. I was Peter Lynch when I bought this stock. As the price keep going up, I have becoming Nicolas Darvas. I have added more to my position whenever the price breached the box and moved into the next box. So, in a way, I do have a target price to sell and it just get higher and higher as the price keep moving into the higher boxes. Shall see what's the effect of upcoming results on the price and any information before my next move.