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I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.
Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.
tks.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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(30-07-2014, 10:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.
Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.
tks.
Hi Curiousparty
It is common sense that GPM is dependent on price increase, and vol increase. It will not make sense to treat them as independent numbers.
I thought you had formulated the relationship between GPM, price increase and vol increase before carrying out the Monte Carlo simulation.
If you had not and are now asking me for suggestions, the results may be of limited use.
Thank you..
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I thought u had a non-linear relationship b/w price/volume price and GPM?
I only had a simple linear relationship with lots of buffer (i.e. conservative).
Pls share if u have (for the benefit of all value buddies here)
(30-07-2014, 03:02 PM)simpleman Wrote: (30-07-2014, 10:01 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: I am just being conservative, least I give too optimistic a picture.
Can you give me the relationship or formulation u used to link price and volume increase to GPM.
I can adjust my simulation to reflect the new relationship.
tks.
Hi Curiousparty
It is common sense that GPM is dependent on price increase, and vol increase. It will not make sense to treat them as independent numbers.
I thought you had formulated the relationship between GPM, price increase and vol increase before carrying out the Monte Carlo simulation.
If you had not and are now asking me for suggestions, the results may be of limited use.
Thank you..
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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Hi Curiousparty,
Can you show us the linear (whatever it means) relationship you have and the buffer since you already have them?
By the way, 2Q 13 revenue was RMB 426.5m, but your simulation gives RMB 535.8m as minimum 2Q 14 revenue. This is 25.6% increase.
You have stated that vol increase is 15% minimum, and price increase is 5% minimum. Did you assume uniform increases for all three product categories? What is the breakdown of revenue?
As accelerators have little spare capacity, how was it possible to have vol increase of 15%.
Hope you can share as you already have the details before carrying out simulations.
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Curiousparty
Have you overlooked my post?
I hope you will share with us the relationship bewteen GPM and selling prices and the breakdown of revenue.
Thank you.
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Moderator
Do you think Curiousparty ought to share with forummers the basic points in his modelling?
He was confident in stating that he will be able to forecast the profit of Sunsine. But when asked why 5% price increase would result in a marginal 1.4% increase of GPM, he replied that he had been conservative.
But it is clear that he was not conservative in assuming that sales revenue would grow by 25.6% with a 15% increase in sale volume.
Bluechipfan may not appreciate that this forum is for us to share and learn. If Curiosparty is serious about the matter, he should share with us.
It is also not the case that he is busty during this period as he has been busy posting on Chip Eng Seng, and BBR.
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06-08-2014, 02:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2014, 02:54 PM by Curiousparty.)
Just to clarify to all.
Never in my posting did I state that "I am confident that I am able to forecast the profit of Sunsine".
What I did was just "forecasting of results" (via Monte Carlo Simulation) using simple and conservative assumptions
(which I have already made known upfront).
And I have put in caveats as well. So, pls don't come and blame me if the actual results differ. If the actual result turns out to be very close, I would not claim credit either.
To me, this is just an academic exercise to better understand the cost structure of the company.
many tks.
(btw, pls stop "stalking me")
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
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(06-08-2014, 02:10 PM)simpleman Wrote: Moderator
Do you think Curiousparty ought to share with forummers the basic points in his modelling?
He was confident in stating that he will be able to forecast the profit of Sunsine. But when asked why 5% price increase would result in a marginal 1.4% increase of GPM, he replied that he had been conservative.
But it is clear that he was not conservative in assuming that sales revenue would grow by 25.6% with a 15% increase in sale volume.
Bluechipfan may not appreciate that this forum is for us to share and learn. If Curiosparty is serious about the matter, he should share with us.
It is also not the case that he is busty during this period as he has been busy posting on Chip Eng Seng, and BBR.
We should appreciate sharings, and should be reasonable on our expectation since none of us get paid to participate in VB.
Curiousparty initiated a modelling, and shared with her result. We should appreciate her effort regardless of the result. If the modelling was flawed, you rebuts with your points to highlight them, or you can chose to ignore them.
Let's close the case, and restart a new page with the upcoming result tomorrow. It should be a very interesting result.
No further moderation required.
Regards
Moderator
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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The actual 2Q profit is very likely to fall within the wide range of profit (RMB 41.2m and RMB 55.4m) that Curiosparty provided. The wide range is of little help.