M1 (formerly: MobileOne)

[CityFarmer]

M1 announces its Q3/9-months result today.

Highlights are
- Service revenue increased 2.8% to S$577m, but net profit after tax decreased 14.1% to S$109m
- Mobile customer base increased 24,000 to 2.06m and Fibre customer base increased to 44,000
- EBITDA margin (service revenue) decreased from 42.1% (9 months FY11) to 38.0% (9 months FY12)
- Free Cash Flow increased from $115m (9 months FY11) to $169m (9 months FY12)
- Net debt improved from net-debt/EBITDA of 1.1 (9 months FY11) to 0.8 (9 months FY12)

[CityFarmer]

New update of IDA for Aug 2012 on the following link

http://www.ida.gov.sg/Publications/20120903164627.aspx

Fiber's users up by 15.1k in Aug 2012. An average of 14.4k per month during Jan-Jun 2012. In the last 4 months, Fiber's user consistently increases above 15k users per month.

During Jan 2012 - Aug 2012
DSL + Cable's users down by -88.0k
Fiber's users up by 115.3K

One important point to note is cable user reverse the trend, with an increase of users in Aug 2012. It seems that Starhub has done a good job to retain/acquire cable user.

[CityFarmer]

Sept 2012 update of Telecom Statistic from newly makeover (yet more confusing ) IDA website

http://www.ida.gov.sg/Infocomm-Landscape...LmHfYPCl0h

From Jan 2012 - Sep 2012:

Fiber subscriptions : +133.0 K
Cable + xDSL subscriptions : -100.7 K
Diff : 32.3 K

The increase of fiber subscriptions is more than total decreases from cable and xDSL subscriptions. It is likely due to interim overlapping in subscriptions IMO.

[CityFarmer]

Oct 2012 update of Telecom Statistic from IDA

http://www.ida.gov.sg/Infocomm-Landscape...Ms0AG_Cl0h

From Jan 2012 - Oct 2012

Fiber subscription : 149.4 K
DSL + Cable subscription : -110.1K
Diff : 39.3 K

[CityFarmer]

M1 announces two (2) important appointment today, chief operating officer and chief commercial officer.

That shows M1 is beefing up its marketing force. A good sign IMO

[CityFarmer]

M1 will release FY2012 full year result on 21st Jan 2013

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...70025C079/$file/Announcement_Date_of_Release_of_2012_Full_Year_Results_Announcement.pdf?openelement

Let's see the performance on the fixed network business.

[bran]

Hi cityfarmer,
thanks for your updates on M1. Much appreciated.
It seems that we have not seen the rebound in total ARPU so far and the development in the NGN is not going smoothly. On the plus side, the data APRU seems to be growing on a Y-o-Y basis (not on q-o-q though) and their market share in core post-paid remains steady.

Also how do you think the new chief commercial officer will help?

[CityFarmer]

Hi cityfarmer,
thanks for your updates on M1. Much appreciated.
It seems that we have not seen the rebound in total ARPU so far and the development in the NGN is not going smoothly. On the plus side, the data APRU seems to be growing on a Y-o-Y basis (not on q-o-q though) and their market share in core post-paid remains steady.

Also how do you think the new chief commercial officer will help?

Base on initial analysis, there are few critical milestones to realize full value of NGN to M1

First of all, the fixed network users base should reach a critical mass. Next question is what is the tipping point? My initial assessment is should be at least in 100K-200K range.

Then the benefit of bundling will able to boost the mobile business.

The best scenario of M1 story is to reach critical mass in 2 years of less, but it is not realized, partly due to OpenNet in-efficiency.

IMO, the next to observe is the fixed network business. I will be surprised if ARPU and/or market share of mobile business improves significantly before fixed network business reaches critical mass.

Lastly, the chief commercial officer is expected to promote on fixed network business IMO. Mr. Neil Montefiore (CEO Starhub) is one of the CEO i admired. He always able to create miracles e.g. grow cable broadband business amid challenges from fiber network I hope the new CCO has part of the of Mr. Neil Montefiore business senses

[bran]

i'm not sure if M1 can achieve any bundling effect as it would require a catalyst such as what Singtel has done with Mio to bring users over to M1.
With that said, if the current user base of M1 has stayed loyal with the firm without any bundling benefit, any incremental benefits can only be better

I respect Neil Montefiore too and should really have stuck to my instincts and invested with him when he went over to Starhub. Oh well. Lesson learnt.
The latest chief commercial officer Mr Lee Kok Chew's profile:-
He was Director for Finance and Business Development & Strategic Planning in the company before he assumed the Chief Financial Officer post. Prior to this he was Chief Operating Officer of SPH Magazines from 2003 to 2007 and Senior Manager of Singapore Press Holdings Limited from 1993 to 2003, according to an M1 report.
SPH as experience for running M1? Hmm

[CityFarmer]

i'm not sure if M1 can achieve any bundling effect as it would require a catalyst such as what Singtel has done with Mio to bring users over to M1.
With that said, if the current user base of M1 has stayed loyal with the firm without any bundling benefit, any incremental benefits can only be better

I respect Neil Montefiore too and should really have stuck to my instincts and invested with him when he went over to Starhub. Oh well. Lesson learnt.
The latest chief commercial officer Mr Lee Kok Chew's profile:-
He was Director for Finance and Business Development & Strategic Planning in the company before he assumed the Chief Financial Officer post. Prior to this he was Chief Operating Officer of SPH Magazines from 2003 to 2007 and Senior Manager of Singapore Press Holdings Limited from 1993 to 2003, according to an M1 report.
SPH as experience for running M1? Hmm

FYI, M1 already started its bundling offerings, but only fixed network + home phone + mobile data service. It is logical that not to includes mobile service now IMO.

When Mr. Neil Montefiore moved to Starhub, i did look into Starhub and seriously considered to invest. I hold due to limitations on Starhub by the emerging of NGN, and proven it was a wrong move.