M1 (formerly: MobileOne)

[CityFarmer]

Time for a write-up for M1, as a long-term shareholder. More so with the recent sell-down due to visibility of 4th mobile operator.

I share the following write-up, base on similar structure analysis methodology. Feel free to comment.

(vested)

[CityFarmer]

I am glad a shareholder and customer of M1

(vested)

M1 pips bigger rivals in connectivity, data download speed, IDA data shows

SINGAPORE (June 3): M1, Singapore’s smallest telco, has the best 4G connectivity of the three operators, according to an inaugural survey of some 4,000 users conducted by Infocomm Development Authority (IDA).

M1 users took an average of 35.4 milliseconds to set up a local connection on 4G, 15.5 milliseconds faster than users of Singtel, its nearest competitor, according to IDA data cited by Today. It took StarHub users 53.5 milliseconds to get connected.

For 4G data download, M1 also led its bigger rivals with an average speed of 4.9Mbps to 43.7Mbps compared to StarHub’s range of 5.0 Mbps to 40.5 Mbps.

For 3G connectivity, M1 users took 99.9 milliseconds compared to StarHub users who took 258.4 milliseconds. Singtel was the leader in 3G data download speed, with an average speed of 0.8Mbps to 11.2Mbps. M1 came next with 0.9Mbps to 7.3Mbps followed by StarHub’s 0.9Mbps to 7.3Mbps.

Shares in M1 closed at $3.21 yesterday.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...data-shows

[CityFarmer]

It is withdrawal from SMRT, not OMGTel, right? Well, analysts start to play down the possibility of 4th mobile operator...

(vested)

Singtel, M1 upgraded to ‘buy’ by DBS after sharp fall in share prices and SMRT withdrawal

SINGAPORE (June 9): DBS ( Financial Dashboard) is upgrading Singtel and M1 to ‘buy’ after their sharp decline in share prices recently.

The upgrade comes after SMRT announced it will not bid for 4th telco licence with OMGTel, which leaves MyRepublic as a possible contender.

This will leave MyRepublic as a possible contender for the 4th telco licence.

In a report out today, DBS analyst Sachin Mittal says MyRepublic plans to spend only US$250-300 million, and targets 10-12% market share in the long term.

In contrast, DBS estimated that OMGTel was planning capex of $500 million to $1 billion in case it secured the licence.

According to Mittal, experience has shown that market share gains are difficult for players without adequate network investments.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...withdrawal

[CityFarmer]

M1 newly on-board chairman, Mr. Choo Chiau Beng, has bought 50,000 M1 shares @3.33 per share.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_9...eID=355275

(vested)

[CityFarmer]

I chose to put the article here. I am less concern on SingTel rating, but the view on spectrum allocation.

IMO, the allocation of 2.3 G may be more likely, because the expired 900 MHz spectrum may be more viable, to re-farm with adjacent spectrum, rather than early allocation to new operator...

(vested in M1)

Telco sector kept at ‘market weight’ by UOB Kay Hian; Singtel is top pick

SINGAPORE (June 11): Authorities are determined to facilitate the entry of a fourth mobile operator.

However, whether the 900MHz or 2,300MHz frequency band is allocated makes a big difference to the new entrant’s ability to compete.

In a sector report released on June 10, UOB ( Financial Dashboard) Kay Hian says it had expected a portion of the 900MHz frequency band to be set aside for potential new entrants.

“Contrary to our earlier expectations, we believe the authorities could consider allocating a portion of the 2,300MHz frequency to the fourth mobile operator,” it says.

The Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) has allowed incumbent mobile operators to utilise the 2300MHz frequency band on a short-term basis for trials on Time Division Duplex (TDD) technology.

Therefore, the 2,300MHz frequency band could be made available at a short notice.

The 900MHz frequency band provides longer range and better in-building coverage compared with the 2,300MHz frequency band.

“Thus, potential new entrants would have to fork out more capex to roll out their mobile network if IDA decides to set aside a portion of the 2,300MHz frequency band for the fourth mobile operator,” observes UOB Kay Hian.

“There is also speculation that IDA could embark on a new round of industry consultation focusing on issue pertaining to the introduction of a fourth mobile operator, such as frequency spectrum to be set aside and regulatory intervention to support a fourth mobile operator.”
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...l-top-pick

[CityFarmer]

The stickiness ratio is new to me...
(vested)

M1 upgraded to ‘hold’ with $3.60 target price by UOB
...
"Koh notes that M1 has not only been upgrading its mobile network to the latest technology, it has also gained “stickiness” from its customer base by offering fibre broadband services on top of its core mobile services. To date, it has won a 14.2% market share in fibre broadband. What might cheer M1 investors is the fact that 90% of these 108,000 broadband customers are also M1 mobile subscribers, suggesting strong customer loyalty.

The company has also revamped its 14 M1 shops to make it more user friendly and introduced measures to improve efficiency.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...-price-uob

[CityFarmer]

After SingTel has announced the shutdown of 2G service, M1 and StarHub followed. Anyway, the 2G (both pre-paid and post-paid) has about 287K users, out of 8.1 million users overall, i.e. 3.5%.

http://www.ida.gov.sg/Tech-Scene-News/Fa...15-Jan-Jun

Singapore telcos to stop 2G services from April 2017

SINGAPORE (June 15): Singapore's three telecommunications operators said they would stop providing older second-generation (2G) mobile technology services in the wealthy city state from April 1, 2017, as rising smartphone ownership has led to higher data usage rates.

"To cater for consumers' increased demand for mobile data and faster access speeds, the spectrum currently used for 2G will be used to provide faster, more advanced 3G and 4G services," Singapore Telecommunications Ltd , M1 Ltdand StarHub Ltd said in a statement.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...april-2017

[CityFarmer]

More parties interested on Singapore telco market. Singapore Telco biz is highly profitable, that has attracted new players. I am really doubt the viable of MVNO model in Singapore, which previously proven by a failed case in 2001/2002.

The MyRepublic and OMGTel are focusing on MVO model, base on their press releases so far

(vested)

JP Morgan downgrades M1 and Starhub on looming competition; keeps Singtel 'neutral'

SINGAPORE (June 18): JP Morgan has downgraded both StarHub and M1 to “underweight”, but maintains Singtel at “neutral” on possible competition from a fourth mobile operator, which would presumably hurt the three incumbents’ businesses to varying extents.

In a June 16 note, JP Morgan analysts said they have recently met up with an aspiring fourth player, Liberty Wireless, which aims to enter the Singapore mobile market as a mobile virtual network operator, or MVNO.

Liberty runs a business model where a mobile operator leases capacity from existing asset owners at wholesale prices, instead of building its own networks which is what a mobile network operator (MNO) does.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...el-neutral

[Greenrookie]

I was starting to read up a bit on the starhub and M1. While
I follow about the biggest impact on M1 due to its 71% revenue on local mobile. How did he get a fall of 55% fall in M1 price?

I assume 10% loss of market share from M1 and a 25% fall in ARPU, it will result in a fall of about 30% in profitability. And if M1 fall 55%, it will be attractive indeed?? Any further fall in ARPU might make it unworthwhile for the amount of capital pledge, from 350 mio to 1 billion for potential bidder?

I also have the following thoughts:
Starhub AR mention its company position and effort in the country move towards "Smart Nation" and project in Transport Data, M1 makes no announcement in the INternet of things. Wonder how is M1 competing in this area?

M1 investment in Oman, I read somewhere one of the goal is get it listed. A potential catalyst if it happens?

[CityFarmer]

M1 newly on-board chairman, Mr. Choo Chiau Beng, has bought 50,000 M1 shares @3.33 per share.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_9...eID=355275

(vested)

More acquisition from the chairman, another 50,000 shares

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_1...eID=356864