M1 (formerly: MobileOne)

[CY09]

Hi Cory,

Declining revenue per user and decreasing mobile handset sales says one trend- Users are now switching to SIM-only plans. Such plans only means the signing up of contracts with no new phone purchase. This trend was popularised in Singapore thanks to Circles Life and is a bane to Telecos because it has hurt their cashflow (due to the loss of one lucrative profit segment called Handset sales).

In my rose-tainted lens of the Singapore economy, it is fortunate that a certain national bank has rose up to help 2 telecos by giving low interest loans at 2.5% and below for a duration of 3 years. Otherwise, shareholders and parent companies of M1 will be experience a loss of upwards cash flow.

[CY09]

Perhaps as a response to Starhub's 6GB +unlimited weekend data offering last week, M1 is now offering 7GB SIM-only plans at $20 as well as in its SIM+phone recontact plans for people to port over.

https://www.m1.com.sg/switchtom1?utm_cam...on-m1-user

M1 is now offering the most value to data SIM only and phone recontact plans across all telecos. Considering that increasing data in a bundle package does not incur much cost to the telecos; I am curious to know how much data can be bundled in a $20 SIM-only plan or a $40 with phone contract plans and that telecos will still make a decent margin. Increasing data in your lower tier plans means consumers are going to switch from their old mobile plans to the cheaper ones since their data usage are likely to be sufficiently covered by these new "modified" plans. Our local telecos ARPU are going to fall with costs staying about the same or increasing slightly.

TPG's plan to capture the elderly segment (who are low data users) is another segment to trifle with, monitoring the data usage of my parents who are older and close to the senior citizen age, I notice their data usage does not exceed 3GB and are on plans which cost above $20/month. If the elderly segment becomes another battle field and that telecos have to revise their "senior mobile plans" to below $20 and with a data limit of 3 GB, we can be prepared for another fall in ARPU given that 20% of Singapore's population are aged 55 and above now.

Currently the local telcos are making a NPM of 13-15% vis a vis 3 years back when margins were 15-18%. I wonder how much compression in margins can they continue to take. It is worth noting that Singtel associate Optus has only approx 10% net profit margin in its Aussie Mobile business

<not shorted in any 3 telecos, but very pessimistic of their business outlook>

[brattzz]

all this is very good for consumers, but bad for shareholders...

as telecommunication is a commodity, the NPM has to be marginal mah!
more competition pls!

[LionFlyer]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/M1_Propo...eID=512103

M1 bought AsiaPac, an IT company. I was talking to someone about it and we both noticed that telcos (Starhub) are showing up in places where we least expect, namely IT. They seems to be moving significantly into adjacent business like cyber (Singtel) and IT services.

[thor666]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/M1_Propo...eID=512103

M1 bought AsiaPac, an IT company. I was talking to someone about it and we both noticed that telcos (Starhub) are showing up in places where we least expect, namely IT. They seems to be moving significantly into adjacent business like cyber (Singtel) and IT services.

Actually, Telco moving in ICT is a global trend. However, what is surprising is the local small telcos taking up such positions as there is not a lot of money to make from simple systems integration.. Most of the IT budgets are geared for B2C rather than B2B or internal improvements for most private companies. Bigger players have more economies of scale.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

[Wildreamz]

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/co...rest-of-m1

SPH and Keppel to make general offer for rest of M1
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO

SINGAPORE - Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), together with Keppel Corp, will be making a pre-conditional voluntary general offer of $2.06 per share for the remaining M1 shares they do not own, valuing Singapore's third-largest mobile operator at $1.9 billion.

[desmondxyz]

Offer price is 2.06, but market price since the offer announcement is always above the offer price....it has been hovering ard 2.10/2.11 for quite long before it dropped to 2.07 recently, still, it is above 2.06. What's going on? Who is buying above 2.06?

[thor666]

Offer price is 2.06, but market price since the offer announcement is always above the offer price....it has been hovering ard 2.10/2.11 for quite long before it dropped to 2.07 recently, still, it is above 2.06. What's going on? Who is buying above 2.06?

There were news report previously saying that axiata (rumor) would not accept at the offerer price. Hence I am not surprised if opportunistic buyers are holding out for positive event.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

[desmondxyz]

Offer price is 2.06, but market price since the offer announcement is always above the offer price....it has been hovering ard 2.10/2.11 for quite long before it dropped to 2.07 recently, still, it is above 2.06. What's going on? Who is buying above 2.06?

There were news report previously saying that axiata (rumor) would not accept at the offerer price. Hence I am not surprised if opportunistic buyers are holding out for positive event.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

But if Axiata not accepting and not offering a new bid either, then ...

[Shiyi]

Offer price is 2.06, but market price since the offer announcement is always above the offer price....it has been hovering ard 2.10/2.11 for quite long before it dropped to 2.07 recently, still, it is above 2.06. What's going on? Who is buying above 2.06?

There were news report previously saying that axiata (rumor) would not accept at the offerer price. Hence I am not surprised if opportunistic buyers are holding out for positive event.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A5000 using Tapatalk

But if Axiata not accepting and not offering a new bid either, then ...