25-04-2017, 01:15 PM (This post was last modified: 25-04-2017, 01:20 PM by corydorus.)
(25-04-2017, 12:47 PM)specuvestor Wrote:
(22-04-2017, 04:43 PM)weijian Wrote: From strategic standpoint, some folks who are competing with Singtel in foreign markets, may want to bring the game to Singtel in their home market. You want to fight price war with me in my market, i can start price war with you in your home market now!
(23-04-2017, 12:35 AM)corydorus Wrote: The Singapore Market if I understand correctly ( quick view so DYODD) seems less than 10% of Singtel.
Whereas the investment TPG has to enable locally is huge. Also TPG high bidding basically snuffle any potential price war in Australia.
TPG stock price tanks even before the battle begins.
IIRC Singapore market is roughly one third of SingTel profit and about 1/2 of their operating cashflow (subsidiaries may or may not pay dividend upstream)
And yes I think what Weijian says make sense. Competitors just need to breakeven for a relatively small business in Singapore to force profitability down for Singtel, and indirectly lower the heat downunder. Question is whether TPG can last
That's how I read it.
Singtel EBITDA S$1.221B/ Net profit almost $1B. EBITDA $185M from Singapore Consumer in last Q.
9 mth Singapore Operation ( Consumer, Enterprise etc ) is about 35% of it's FCF.
Singtel crown jewel in Singapore is actually Ncs and it's provision of internet/data services with Singapore companies, stat board etc. It has quite little exposure to the local consumer mobile is unlike starhub and m1
(22-04-2017, 04:43 PM)weijian Wrote: From strategic standpoint, some folks who are competing with Singtel in foreign markets, may want to bring the game to Singtel in their home market. You want to fight price war with me in my market, i can start price war with you in your home market now!
(23-04-2017, 12:35 AM)corydorus Wrote: The Singapore Market if I understand correctly ( quick view so DYODD) seems less than 10% of Singtel.
Whereas the investment TPG has to enable locally is huge. Also TPG high bidding basically snuffle any potential price war in Australia.
TPG stock price tanks even before the battle begins.
IIRC Singapore market is roughly one third of SingTel profit and about 1/2 of their operating cashflow (subsidiaries may or may not pay dividend upstream)
And yes I think what Weijian says make sense. Competitors just need to breakeven for a relatively small business in Singapore to force profitability down for Singtel, and indirectly lower the heat downunder. Question is whether TPG can last
That's how I read it.
Singtel EBITDA S$1.221B/ Net profit almost $1B. EBITDA $185M from Singapore Consumer in last Q.
9 mth Singapore Operation ( Consumer, Enterprise etc ) is about 35% of it's FCF.
(25-04-2017, 01:39 PM)CY09 Wrote: Singtel crown jewel in Singapore is actually Ncs and it's provision of internet/data services with Singapore companies, stat board etc. It has quite little exposure to the local consumer mobile is unlike starhub and m1
At risk of derailing this thread, I get the Singapore & Optus EBITDA data and the Singapore revenue composition from here:
I think it is right that their exposure to Singapore consumer is lesser % than STH & M1 but not sure if insignificant as CY09 implies
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China coal miner said to vie for M1
SINGAPORE (April 27): A coal producer based in China’s Shanxi province and China Broadband Capital are among bidders for US$1.4 billion ($2 billion) Singapore wireless carrier M1, according to people with knowledge of the matter. http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/china-c...aid-vie-m1
It seems that major shareholders of M1 are of the opinion that long-term business prospects will be poor with TPG's entrance into the market, and is trying to offload M1 before it becomes less profitable/valuable.
It has become clear that Axiata was not interested in buying more shares at the outset, and is instead selling.
Non-telco operators being attracted to this deal also tells us that demand for M1 shares are not strong.
Nevertheless, opmi shareholders may still profit if any transaction materializes.
Isn't it the case of the existing shareholders need $ to save their core biz?
Bidders are interested in M1 as they wants a cheaper and faster way into SGP telco sector. The long term prospects are bright with increase population and IoT.
Even non traditional telco company wants to come in and have a share of the profit.
(27-04-2017, 11:15 PM)funman168 Wrote: Isn't it the case of the existing shareholders need $ to save their core biz?
Bidders are interested in M1 as they wants a cheaper and faster way into SGP telco sector. The long term prospects are bright with increase population and IoT.
Even non traditional telco company wants to come in and have a share of the profit.
There are two different perspectives, one from the sellers and one from the buyer(s).
Penetration rate will increase with the popularity of IoT and Singapore Smart City initiatives. Of course, uncertainties ahead since no one has a very clear picture how the IoT will pan out. In short, there may be a much bigger pie for one more player in Singapore in near future.
It is not a very straight-forward investment decision, IMHO.
For M1, the above 2 competitors (esp Singtel) is competing a lot with M1; since M1 is selling a 4GB SIM only plan at $20/mth and 6 GB at $30/mth (both have 12 months tie down)
IMO, expect a bit more decline in M1's revenue starting from Q3, especially if Singtel continues unveiling attractive SIM only plans.
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