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(20-07-2013, 02:45 PM)GreedandFear Wrote: Can anyone help me quantify what proportion of the Aluminium segment's sales is for refrigerated containers as opposed to work for HDB ? With this company, I don't have a good handle on how each of the two businesses are doing given that they are reported under tge same segment....
can't find any breakdown in its ARs, if it's substantial amount then it could be its biggest risk if they lose revenue from carrier, plus its cyclical business nature, these could be the reasons for cheap valuation now, got to wait for people's risk appetite increases before any good valuation on the business.
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(22-07-2013, 02:03 PM)zz... Wrote: (20-07-2013, 02:45 PM)GreedandFear Wrote: Can anyone help me quantify what proportion of the Aluminium segment's sales is for refrigerated containers as opposed to work for HDB ? With this company, I don't have a good handle on how each of the two businesses are doing given that they are reported under tge same segment....
can't find any breakdown in its ARs, if it's substantial amount then it could be its biggest risk if they lose revenue from carrier, plus its cyclical business nature, these could be the reasons for cheap valuation now, got to wait for people's risk appetite increases before any good valuation on the business.
New to the board and investing in Singapore stocks overall. A few questions:
1) Has it ever been publicly disclosed that Carrier Transicold is the refrigeration customer? If so, can someone point me to the PR or filing?
2) Going back to the split in the aluminum business between HDB construction & the refrig business. The last two quarterly reports blame the revenue decreases on weakness in Europe - since the HDB/construction market is local, doesn't this imply that "Europe" would mean the refrig business?
2a) Q1 2013: Sales fell sharply but GM% was up 260bps due to mix shift. Sales decrease due to weakness in Europe (i.e. refrig, if Europe = refrig). Therefore , HDB has higher margins than refrig?
3) Trying to reconcile the #s from the spreadsheet posted earlier in the thread. Where are Carrier Transicold's profit & loss figures pulled from?
4) Also, I was searching through the hdb.gov.sg annual reports to find HDB statistics. "Units Completed" would be a lagging indicator for NamLee though right? (since they company would have already sold its products). Therefore, the trend in "Units Under Construction" or "Units Awarded" would be a better leading indicator of future profits right?
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(25-07-2013, 05:43 AM)asues Wrote: (22-07-2013, 02:03 PM)zz... Wrote: (20-07-2013, 02:45 PM)GreedandFear Wrote: Can anyone help me quantify what proportion of the Aluminium segment's sales is for refrigerated containers as opposed to work for HDB ? With this company, I don't have a good handle on how each of the two businesses are doing given that they are reported under tge same segment....
can't find any breakdown in its ARs, if it's substantial amount then it could be its biggest risk if they lose revenue from carrier, plus its cyclical business nature, these could be the reasons for cheap valuation now, got to wait for people's risk appetite increases before any good valuation on the business.
New to the board and investing in Singapore stocks overall. A few questions:
1) Has it ever been publicly disclosed that Carrier Transicold is the refrigeration customer? If so, can someone point me to the PR or filing?
2) Going back to the split in the aluminum business between HDB construction & the refrig business. The last two quarterly reports blame the revenue decreases on weakness in Europe - since the HDB/construction market is local, doesn't this imply that "Europe" would mean the refrig business?
2a) Q1 2013: Sales fell sharply but GM% was up 260bps due to mix shift. Sales decrease due to weakness in Europe (i.e. refrig, if Europe = refrig). Therefore , HDB has higher margins than refrig?
3) Trying to reconcile the #s from the spreadsheet posted earlier in the thread. Where are Carrier Transicold's profit & loss figures pulled from?
4) Also, I was searching through the hdb.gov.sg annual reports to find HDB statistics. "Units Completed" would be a lagging indicator for NamLee though right? (since they company would have already sold its products). Therefore, the trend in "Units Under Construction" or "Units Awarded" would be a better leading indicator of future profits right?
Carrier Transicold PnL are pulled from United Technology earning results, the parent company of carrier. They used to have PnL from carrier alone 2 years ago, now they are lumped under "environment, fire and security," irrc. but carrier remain the core and biggest contributor in this segment.
I was recently reading up on united tech and carrier presentation, carrier's container business is the only segment they are still bullish about , expecting growth to continue take place in 2012 and 2013, and if irrc, that expect it to grow in the range of 10%.
So we can soon check if the numbers translate to better figures in nam lee soon.
yea, here it is : (pg4 - pg6)
http://www.utc.com/StaticFiles/UTC/Stati...14_ccs.pdf
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Nam Lee results is out:
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Nam_Lee-...eID=252055
Results is bad... 
Q3 GP margin is the worst for the last 7 quarters, and compare to yearly average, 13% is the worst for the last 5 years!
NP margin for Q3 is almost non-existence of 1.6% partly due to the expiry of tax rebates of malaysia subsidaries.
Management is more upbeat regarding the alumimium business and inventories and receivables have both went up due to "projects picking up pace"
Cash is also lower mainly due to "increase in working capital of $15.1 million"
My thoughts:
More HDB projects of lower margin, and also higher working capital requirement. Carrier positive outlook on container business, did not translate into positive numbers for Nam Lee, which is puzzling.
1 more quarter to review and I should know if the results is due to lumpiness of earning reporting or that I have got myself a lemon. 
Major customer (carrier) still covering exchange loss: "The Company has an ongoing arrangement with a major customer to recover foreign exchange loss"
My 2 cents worth only
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wah net profits down almost 40%... looks pretty bad...
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Got to monitor for a few more quarters
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trust the management they will pull through eventually and distribute the fat stash of cash 
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Cash has been falling QOQ and the management seems to be much more interested in investing in bonds!
Expect this FY dividends to decrease.
Patience is a virtue.
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Dividend should be same lah, they have more than enough cash to support. Even if less is ok so long as they use the money well.
Bonds investment is ok for more interest rather than cash just sitting in the bank. Can help to generate recurring cash flows.
The profits from the money spent into more inventories should show up in the coming quarters. Expect EPS to increase soon
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Mill,
The cash might improve as inventory and receivables have improve, I am more concerned about earnings and the margin. It's will be quite clear by the next quarter if this dip is just one off, I had expected better or at least flat results as carrier have a new line/ series of container fridge, amd they are bullish about the sales for this fridge for this year, but the numbers from nam lee is actually worse off, although I do not have the specific breakdown of contribution by this major customer, it is definitely significant (at least 50% on my own estimate), so the numbers are really puzzling. The revenue is flat, and if the gp margin erosion is due to the hdb/ housing projects, that means reefer orders actually fall!! Chk past quarters and there is no seasonality Factor here. So yes, I am concerned. Next quarter results will be make or bye bye for me.
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