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10-04-2015, 04:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2015, 04:05 PM by beau.)
(09-04-2015, 08:23 PM)dydx Wrote: Which bible did Graham use? And Graham did not know Nam Lee or study its balance sheet.
I would rather bet on this idiom: Every dog has its day. The fact remains: Nam Lee continues to hold a huge amount of excess cash/capital which can be paid out as one of more jumbo dividends.
I never said anything about the bible.
If you go by the logic of 'every dog has it's day', you are effectively ignoring the fact that some companies are indeed value traps. You'll could be happily waiting to realize value for decades to come. Like I said, they haven't budged in all of 7~ years with the same price and valuations.
(09-04-2015, 08:26 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: are you trolling?
No I am not trolling, and I did not mean to come across that way. What are your thoughts on Nam Lee being a potential value trap?
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10-04-2015, 05:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2015, 06:00 PM by BlueKelah.)
As long as it continues consistent with good dividend payout which it has been doing so far, wont be a value trap as the compounded dividend would be pretty good. Just buy on dips for maximum effect.
When shipping and global economy does get rebound, share will go up too as carrier will order more aluminium fridge containers.
-v-
sent from my Galaxy Tab S
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You may want to refer to the link below where the author did a good analysis on Nam Lee.
http://www.valueinvestingblog.net/nam-le...ndustries/
Nam Lee is showing some sign of improvement to the operating cash flow and the large cash holding put me at ease to bet on this stock. Moreover a constant and good dividend payout (about 5% for last year) will make the wait comfortable for a catalyst to move the share price up.
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Nam Lee reported 1H earnings :
[url]http://javascript:showDocns_Z7_680412S0JO2450AOAFHGTG30G5_("Z3TOIAJOUP30H9BK&H=ac175799785fe2f5b476b25ea9b0bbcb97ab65066acf43519c5a36a43ca4364f",%20"IPO%20New%20Listings");[/url]
As usual, and annoyingly so, they don't strip out the Q2 numbers so you have to do some calculating. As far as I can see :
Sales :
Q2 : 40,246
Q1 : 30,934
Q4 : 35,233
Q3 : 27, 364
Q2 : 36,755
Q1 : 42,100
Gross Profit Margin :
Q2 : 18.2%
Q1 : 20.9%
Q4 : 20.2%
Q3 : 12.3%
Q2 : 18.4%
Q1 : 13.9%
Net Earnings :
Q2 : 2,594
Q1 : 2,538
Q4 : 3,349
Q3 : 615
Q2 : 1,323
Q1 : 1,863
Net Profit Margin :
Q2 : 6.4%
Q1 : 8.2%
Q4 : 9.5%
Q3 : 2.2%
Q2 : 3.6%
Q1 : 4.4%
Whilst it is too early to declare that the earnings are turning around decisively (and net margins are declining again...), it is very encouraging and seems to gel with what the company said at its AGM - namely that they would focus more on the container business and be a lot more selective on construction contracts given the cut throat competition in that segment. The flip side (as also disclosed at the AGM) is that they are having to carry more inventory for the container business which is bad for their cash flow.
Based on last twelve months trailing EPS, we could be looking at 3.75 cents or a 28% jump from last year's earnings. Lets hope the market starts recognising signs of a turn-around. The discount to NAV (share price of 29.5 cents versus NAV of 49.6) remains significant and there should be upside to last year's 1.5 cents dividend.
Vested - patiently....
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14-05-2015, 09:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 14-05-2015, 09:14 PM by BlueKelah.)
thanks for crunching the numbers.
Last years drop in earnings would be due to loss from the JEM mall fiasco with the collapsing ceiling.
It is good to know the container aluminium frame business is holding up. It is the more solid but safe and profit generating container business. Over the longer term, when global economy does pick up again, so will shipping rates and so will order of more containers. Company has also moved manufacturing to M'sia factories to cut costs.
But it might be a while before orders in that sector to really pick up. At the moment, global shipping rates are at its lows which mean demand for container and ships may take a while to pick up though there should be a stable base demand for replacement of old containers.
Coupled with the downturn in singapore property sector, their other main business will also be affected.
Even if they can manage 4 cents EPS this year, div should still be 1.5c as their policy is to payout a third.
Other than that, don't think anything else exciting is going to happen to this company and share price should be sideways too for a while...
-v-
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Why is the homepage of my stock hacked??!!
Pardon the pun but why the heck would hackers target Nam Lee??
http://www.namlee.com.sg/
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(28-07-2015, 09:22 AM)sgpunter Wrote: Why is the homepage of my stock hacked??!!
Pardon the pun but why the heck would hackers target Nam Lee??
http://www.namlee.com.sg/
haha looks like namlee needs to change website hosting service liao 
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3Q/9M result just out.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Nam_Lee_...eID=364813
Based on the 9M's Revenue of $114.385m (+7.7% YoY), PBT of $10.681m (+109.8% YoY) and NP of $6.951m (+85.6% YoY), Nam Lee is poised to close FY15 (ending 30Sep15) with significantly better results when compared with FY14.
FY14 result.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NamLee-F...eID=326520
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Based on the 9 months 2015 vs 2014 #s, the results look very good. However, if you manually calculate the Q3 2015 #s (as Nam Lee only reports year to date numbers.....), you will see that Q3 was very good at the revenue, gross profit (especially gross profit margin of 24.2% - a # previously not seen since Q3 2012) and PBT lines but not that great at PAT as they paid a whopping 56% of PAT as tax this quarter. Hence, EPS only came in at 0.76 cents vs 1.09 in Q2 and 1.03 in Q1. For the 9 months YTD #s, tax works out at 35% of PAT. The company alluded to this in the discussion of the income statement :
"The Group’s effective tax rate was 25.4% for 3Q2014 as compared to 35.4% for 3Q2015. The lower effective tax rate for 3Q2014 was mainly due to the utilisation of tax incentive for a Malaysian subsidiary. The effective tax rate of 35.4% for 3Q2015 was mainly due to timing difference for qualified expenses for tax purposes."
I think the above is incorrectly worded as the 35% tax rate should refer to the 9 months YTD and not just Q3.
However, based on the full year tax rates for 2014 (16.2%), 2013 (2.4%), 2012 (11.8%), 2011 (17.7%), 2010 (17%) and 2009 (21.3%), a 35% tax rate does seem out of whack and we will hopefully see Q4 2015 net income flattered by a much lower tax rate to bring the full year tax rate more in line with the historical norm.
Q3 # stripped out and compared to Q3 2014
Revenues : 43,205 (27,364)
Gross Profit : 10,448 (3,372)
% : 24.2% (12.3%)
EBIT : 4,031 (494)
% : 9.3% (1.8%)
PBT : 4,043 (1,189)
% : 9.4% (4.3%)
PAT : 1,763 (615)
% : 4.1% (2.2%)
Vested
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I am little bit sceptical about Namlee result though. The company actually had cash outflow of $12 mils even after taking in $ 5 mil bank loan. They had not borrowed for long time and this has troubled me.
Cash is now significantly reduced to $23 mil and we need to keep watching this figure together with inventories and debtors at the year end result.
I am hoping that increase revenue are more from Carrier business and less from local construction customers.
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