Their contract with Transicold has expired, and during AGM, they mentioned they are still getting business from transicold, and they see no problem renewing the contracts, while negotiating the terms.
There is still no updates. It Nam lee still the sole supplier?
Transicold has a new variant of natural cool (container fridge), last year, and they mention demand has been promising, it shows in their quarterly numbers, but it never translate into Nam Lee numbers.
I waited for 3-4 quarters, thinking there is a time lag in capex of transicold following to numbers of namlee, but looking at the inventories for the past few quarters (I did not scrutiniesd the most recent one), I do see any spike in activties.
The main reason why I called it quit. I doubt the Construction and building sector can offset transicold business, if it indeed go cold.
I might be wrong in my analysis, please point them out, if you spot any
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
Their contract with Transicold has expired, and during AGM, they mentioned they are still getting business from transicold, and they see no problem renewing the contracts, while negotiating the terms.
There is still no updates. It Nam lee still the sole supplier?
Transicold has a new variant of natural cool (container fridge), last year, and they mention demand has been promising, it shows in their quarterly numbers, but it never translate into Nam Lee numbers.
I waited for 3-4 quarters, thinking there is a time lag in capex of transicold following to numbers of namlee, but looking at the inventories for the past few quarters (I did not scrutiniesd the most recent one), I do see any spike in activties.
The main reason why I called it quit. I doubt the Construction and building sector can offset transicold business, if it indeed go cold.
I might be wrong in my analysis, please point them out, if you spot any
The problem with Nam Lee is that they do not break out the construction and the container business. Hence, we have no way of knowing whether the container biz is growing (as it should be per your posting) or not, although given the relationship, I am willing to bet that they will continue to be the supplier. I am more concerned about the HDB business. As, I believe, the company has previously pointed out, the slow down in the private construction sector has caused construction companies to compete more aggressively for the HDB business (plus there have been new entrants) squeezing margins. Hence, my original thesis of Nam Lee having a stable HDB construction biz with potential upside from a global economic recovery that would drive the container biz may no longer be valid. Having said that, I do see signs of a turn-around (given gross margin improvements) and the dividends have made the fall in share price more bearable while waiting for this turn-around, so I will stick it out for a little longer.
My interest in Nam Lee was sparked by a stock screener, I ran for low yielding stocks.
Nam Lee jumped straight out as a relatively low yielding stock with seemingly poor performance over 52 weeks and a low Price to book.
Looking at the One year chart, it is 17% down, with signs of bottoming out.
Key statistics from Yahoo FInance show Ev/EBITDA of 4.53, which is attractive.
In my worst case scenario estimate Nam Lee is worth 51 cents and is priced at 29 cents, of course the best case scenario is that it is actually worth 94 cents.
Details of my working calculation in attached excel file
Disclaimer :-
I am not an investment professional.
I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.
Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.
At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.
The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).
Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.
I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures
hi bluekelah, eps 1.5c 3q but recent interview at nextinsight, nam lee said will have payout ratio of 40%. plus part of div actually special component.
hard to really say if 1.5c div will happen. unless 4q is v good.
28-08-2014, 10:46 PM (This post was last modified: 28-08-2014, 10:47 PM by BlueKelah.)
(28-08-2014, 10:34 PM)ianphoon Wrote: hi bluekelah, eps 1.5c 3q but recent interview at nextinsight, nam lee said will have payout ratio of 40%. plus part of div actually special component.
hard to really say if 1.5c div will happen. unless 4q is v good.
1H14 - EPS 1.3
3Q14 - EPS 1.5
4Q14 - EPS needs to be 1 (for 40%, 1.5c payout, should be ok lah)
Cash on hand so much, can lah, steady steady bom pee pee...
i fail to see how 3quarters total eps 1.5c then the lone 4th quarter can make 2c to bump up to 3.5c in order for 40% payout of 1.5c dividend.
or am i missing something?
31-08-2014, 06:33 PM (This post was last modified: 31-08-2014, 06:33 PM by BlueKelah.)
hmm...
went and looked at first quarter and looks like Namlee reports the revenue not by quarter or half but cumulatively throughout the year.
So if 3rd quarter cumulative is only 1.5C means even hitting 2 cents will be difficult.
So basically Namlee has made enough in 3Q to fund the 1.5c yearly payout but if they were to strictly adhere to their 40% payout rules then a reduction to probably 1 cent would seem like the case.
Well given that currently 45% of the company market cap is NET CASH, one can only remain hopeful that the 1.5c is maintained.
FY2014 result is out, EPS of 2.92 cents (PATMI approx 7 mil) and dividend is maintained at 1.5 cents. Based on the last traded price of 28 cents, NAV of 49.6 cents, the P/B is 0.564 and dividend yield of 5.36% with a net cash of 14 cents per share. PE is around 9.6X.
29-11-2014, 10:36 PM (This post was last modified: 29-11-2014, 11:04 PM by BlueKelah.)
(29-11-2014, 09:08 PM)ngcheeki Wrote: FY2014 result is out, EPS of 2.92 cents (PATMI approx 7 mil) and dividend is maintained at 1.5 cents. Based on the last traded price of 28 cents, NAV of 49.6 cents, the P/B is 0.564 and dividend yield of 5.36% with a net cash of 14 cents per share. PE is around 9.6X.
So big Dip in EPS previously was due to project overrun cost.
And dip in Cash eq past quarters was also for ramping up inventory for incoming business. Which looks like its kicking in now.
This could also mean the container business has at least stabilized and if business continues as usual its reasonable to expect around 1+c EPS per quarter from now on barring any unforseen circumstances...
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