King Wan Corporation

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King Wan's business model is not easily understood. Most people are valuing it as a M&E player, but the investment thesis should be based on KW as a capital allocator. Similar to a hedge fund managing $$$.
"OSK-DMG analyst: Lee Yue Jer, CFA

KING WAN: Target price 43 cents based on expected 7% yield"
Not too long ago many analysts were busy raising their TP, and releasing report after report touting the "likely" extraordinary dividends from the divestment of KTIS.
Now suddenly it's the other extreme and KW has fallen. These supposedly wise analysts with CFAs are nowhere to be found, no new reports, no new updates. I really wonder what gives these analysts the idea of an "expected 7% yield etc"
Did management give guidance on this? If not, then there's no justification for that.
If so, then now is the time to call up the management and ask why the deviation. who made the mistake?

Anyway, KW's main core investment thesis, as I said, should be such that KW is assessed on its capital allocation ability.
The M&E core business is going to hum along just fine. It has always been FCF generative, KW has a long track record on this. But it's hard to expand or grow the business substantially. It's just going to do OK. Not great, not bad either.
So KW's value is really in its ability or inability in using the cash generated.
KWW does this via associates or investment vehicles. This is not new as many companies form JVs, then pump cash into the JVs for their activities, in this case, property development in China Dalian, the worker's dormitories, the vessel etc.
What is unique though, and someone pls correct me if I'm wrong, is that most do not actually charge an interest on these loans. KW charges interest on its loans to associates, and this interest is booked as income in the income statement.
Most of this interest and the loan amt is NOT collected though, so it just keeps accumulating under the Balance sheet Assets as mostly, non current receivables. Most of these receivables are non current as the projects they invest in have long gestation periods. DSC has launched and sold 6 phases (or 7) and there are 2 more phases left. The worker's dorm will start operating likely early 2016. Skywoods condo sales have razor thin margins, but units are moving at a good pace every month. I think that's the right strategy. Developers have to move units. The risk of holding out for a higher price is just not worth it with the Development charges, which increases for every yr longer past the 2 yrs post TOP mark.
What is also unusual is that at least for DSC, the receivables are further pledged by KW to the banks to secure more loans for DSC, and KW charges for providing collateral for such loans too.
IMO, it is not very conservative to be taking the interest as part of income. There is a real risk of not being to get any part of the principal, much less the interest, back. The recent 12mil writedown in DSC is a fine example.
However, I also think KW has fallen too much. The price is reflective of uncertainty of this receivables from associates. I don't think there'd be much more writedowns from DSC, and if there is, the quantum will not be large.
Again, like I said, KW behaves more like a hedge fund. They take money from M&E and try to invest in higher yielding projects
Investing in KW is basically trusting the powress of Chua Eng Eng to allocate capital and control risks. In this aspect, KW's track record is OK.
KTIS has been a success. The other ventures are or have done ok as well: Skywoods, Starlight suites, SI property
DSC has been a mistake.

<vested>
Reply
(27-08-2015, 03:56 PM)ethys Wrote: (3) Their receivables have now ballooned up to 81mil SGD. This is 8.5M more just for this quarter. No breakdown is provided by KWC so we have to assume that this has been split somehow evenly between Dalian and their other projects such as their workers’ accommodation business. We can only hope that they will be more successful in their workers’ accommodation business than with Dalian but their tracking record is not very encouraging so far in their property joint-ventures. KWC is not providing any breakdown (another red flag) but from my researches I estimate that more than 50M of KWC receivables are from Dalian. I can give more details about how I reconciled this if anyone is interested but what matters here is that their Dalian project is in a terrible shape and China prospects in Dalian are surely not going to get better anytime soon so i would not be surprised if KWC had to impair at least an additional 30M SGD from their receivables in the coming months. Their gearing ratio would be much higher than now should they have made the necessary impairment on their balance sheet (by decreasing the value of their assets)

<divested>

Hi, i emailed IR and CFO is kind to give me the breakdowns on the non-current receivables of 81m SGD

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you for your email and interest in King Wan's shares.

 
To avoid selective disclosure of information, I'll address your queries as much as permissible.
 
The other receivables under non-current assets relates solely to amounts due from the Group's associates. Of the S$81.2 million, approximately 53.5% relates to property development business in Singapore, while approximately 8.3% relates to property development in China (Dalian Shicheng). The balance relates to advances made to associates for dormitory development, investment properties and the Group's vessel ownership and chartering business.



1.    Out of the 38.2%, how much belongs to Singapore investment properties and China investment properties (Dalian Shicheng)?

        Slightly more than half relates to China investment properties.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


In summary, non-current receivables (amounts due from the Group's associates)
SG property development : 53.5% x S$81.2m = S$43.44m
Dalian Shicheng property development : 8.3% x S$81.2m =S$6.73m
Advances made to China investment properties : assuming 60% (slightly more than half) of the remaining 38.2% x S$81.2m = S$18.61m

Total China property development : S$6.73m + S$18.61 = S$25.34m
Reply
(03-11-2015, 07:32 AM)nitro Wrote:
(27-08-2015, 03:56 PM)ethys Wrote: (3) Their receivables have now ballooned up to 81mil SGD. This is 8.5M more just for this quarter. No breakdown is provided by KWC so we have to assume that this has been split somehow evenly between Dalian and their other projects such as their workers’ accommodation business. We can only hope that they will be more successful in their workers’ accommodation business than with Dalian but their tracking record is not very encouraging so far in their property joint-ventures. KWC is not providing any breakdown (another red flag) but from my researches I estimate that more than 50M of KWC receivables are from Dalian. I can give more details about how I reconciled this if anyone is interested but what matters here is that their Dalian project is in a terrible shape and China prospects in Dalian are surely not going to get better anytime soon so i would not be surprised if KWC had to impair at least an additional 30M SGD from their receivables in the coming months. Their gearing ratio would be much higher than now should they have made the necessary impairment on their balance sheet (by decreasing the value of their assets)

<divested>

Hi, i emailed IR and CFO is kind to give me the breakdowns on the non-current receivables of 81m SGD

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you for your email and interest in King Wan's shares.

 
To avoid selective disclosure of information, I'll address your queries as much as permissible.
 
The other receivables under non-current assets relates solely to amounts due from the Group's associates. Of the S$81.2 million, approximately 53.5% relates to property development business in Singapore, while approximately 8.3% relates to property development in China (Dalian Shicheng). The balance relates to advances made to associates for dormitory development, investment properties and the Group's vessel ownership and chartering business.



1.    Out of the 38.2%, how much belongs to Singapore investment properties and China investment properties (Dalian Shicheng)?

        Slightly more than half relates to China investment properties.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


In summary, non-current receivables (amounts due from the Group's associates)
SG property development : 53.5% x S$81.2m = S$43.44m
Dalian Shicheng property development : 8.3% x S$81.2m =S$6.73m
Advances made to China investment properties : assuming 60% (slightly more than half) of the remaining 38.2% x S$81.2m = S$18.61m

Total China property development : S$6.73m + S$18.61 = S$25.34m

Thanks nitro for sharing this.
It's useful for us to gauge the exposure and risks.
I think the concern for most of us is the Dalian project. The other projects are still doing fine, and going forward, the worker dorm is coming on stream in 2016, so we can expect cash flow from that project.
The Dalian project also won't go to zero totally.
Reply
(03-11-2015, 07:32 AM)nitro Wrote:
(27-08-2015, 03:56 PM)ethys Wrote: (3) Their receivables have now ballooned up to 81mil SGD. This is 8.5M more just for this quarter. No breakdown is provided by KWC so we have to assume that this has been split somehow evenly between Dalian and their other projects such as their workers’ accommodation business. We can only hope that they will be more successful in their workers’ accommodation business than with Dalian but their tracking record is not very encouraging so far in their property joint-ventures. KWC is not providing any breakdown (another red flag) but from my researches I estimate that more than 50M of KWC receivables are from Dalian. I can give more details about how I reconciled this if anyone is interested but what matters here is that their Dalian project is in a terrible shape and China prospects in Dalian are surely not going to get better anytime soon so i would not be surprised if KWC had to impair at least an additional 30M SGD from their receivables in the coming months. Their gearing ratio would be much higher than now should they have made the necessary impairment on their balance sheet (by decreasing the value of their assets)

<divested>

Hi, i emailed IR and CFO is kind to give me the breakdowns on the non-current receivables of 81m SGD

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you for your email and interest in King Wan's shares.

 
To avoid selective disclosure of information, I'll address your queries as much as permissible.
 
The other receivables under non-current assets relates solely to amounts due from the Group's associates. Of the S$81.2 million, approximately 53.5% relates to property development business in Singapore, while approximately 8.3% relates to property development in China (Dalian Shicheng). The balance relates to advances made to associates for dormitory development, investment properties and the Group's vessel ownership and chartering business.



1.    Out of the 38.2%, how much belongs to Singapore investment properties and China investment properties (Dalian Shicheng)?

        Slightly more than half relates to China investment properties.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


In summary, non-current receivables (amounts due from the Group's associates)
SG property development : 53.5% x S$81.2m = S$43.44m
Dalian Shicheng property development : 8.3% x S$81.2m =S$6.73m
Advances made to China investment properties : assuming 60% (slightly more than half) of the remaining 38.2% x S$81.2m = S$18.61m

Total China property development : S$6.73m + S$18.61 = S$25.34m

Actually, slightly confused by the reply by KW
It says 8.3% is exposure to Dalian, then "slightly more than half relates to China development properties"

Does this refer to the Dalian project or other China investment properties?
Cos if it relates to Dalian, why not just say (60%x38.2%) + 8.3% relates to Dalian?
Reply
From what I understand, KWC has invested about $18mil into DSC over that ten years. They have written off $12mil so left about $6mil which is about that $6.7mil so I think that remaining 38.2% (or $31mil) belong to the vessel and Dormitory and ??. I estimated vessel is about $8mil. Not sure if dormitory account for the rest of that $31mil.

One question KWC mgmt might be pondering is whether to written off the remaining $6mil and stop the bleeding or continue to pump more blood in and wait of China property turnaround.

TA's latest profit warning is pertaining to local properties. TA did a $5mil impairment in FY2014 for local properties. I am not sure how TA's other properties are doing but Starlight Suites was TOP in mid-2014 and is coming towards its 2-year grace to complete the sale of all units (hope I am not mistaken here) for that development before penalties kick in. So far still got 30% (31 units) left to sell. Sale for starlight is really slow.

I don't think KWC has carry out any impairment for local property yet. But we should watch the sale of Starlight in the coming next 3 quarters.

The Skywood doing fine so far.
Reply
(03-11-2015, 12:46 PM)GPD Wrote: From what I understand, KWC has invested about $18mil into DSC over that ten years.  They have written off $12mil so left about $6mil which is about that $6.7mil so I think that remaining 38.2% (or $31mil) belong to the vessel and Dormitory and ??.  I estimated vessel is about $8mil.  Not sure if dormitory account for the rest of that $31mil.

One question KWC mgmt might be pondering is whether to written off the remaining $6mil and stop the bleeding or continue to pump more blood in and wait of China property turnaround.

TA's latest profit warning is pertaining to local properties.  TA did a $5mil impairment in FY2014 for local properties.  I am not sure how TA's other properties are doing but Starlight Suites was TOP in mid-2014 and is coming towards its 2-year grace to complete the sale of all units (hope I am not mistaken here) for that development before penalties kick in.  So far still got 30% (31 units) left to sell.  Sale for starlight is really slow.

I don't think KWC has carry out any impairment for local property yet.  But we should watch the sale of Starlight in the coming next 3 quarters.

The Skywood doing fine so far.
I too, think that the Dalian exposure is the $6mil +.
Not sure what's meant by "slightly more than half relates to China investment properties" though
So 50% of the 38.2% is related to some other china properties other than Dalian? the $18mil + is quite substantial...
Another point to note is that 6 phases of the DSC has been launched AND sold.
If I am not wrong, they are selling the 7th phase now, and there are 2 more phases remaining.
The write off is due to the expected lower of prices of the remining phases.
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I am not aware of other China related property investment. Part if not all of that $23mil ($31mil-$8mil) should be for the dormitory.

By the way, anyone knows the land cost and construction for both Starlight and Skywoods? I am wondering if KWC will eventually benefit from this venture.
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(03-11-2015, 04:18 PM)GPD Wrote: I am not aware of other China related property investment.  Part if not all of that $23mil ($31mil-$8mil) should be for the dormitory.

By the way, anyone knows the land cost and construction for both Starlight and Skywoods?  I am wondering if KWC will eventually benefit  from this venture.

Which is why I m confused by the reply that "just over half of the 38% is related to China investment properties..."

The skywoods tender price is $244,318,000
KW owns a 40% stake with hock Lian Seng owning the rest
A rough estimate of the break even price is around $1,050-1,100 psf so this project barely breaks even
Revenue recognition is from FY14 till now
Reply
I think KWC's stake in this JV is 20%. 40% stake in MBD which has a 50% stake in Bukit Timah Green development which is the developer for Skywoods.

I also found this article:
http://sbr.com.sg/building-engineering/n...esidential
The land sale is $244mil so total development cost is about $361mil for Skywoods.

I estimated the Skywoods total revenue to be about $470mil so KWC profit to be about $22mil.

KWC also has some property investment in Thailand.
Reply
(03-11-2015, 11:16 PM)GPD Wrote: I think KWC's stake in this JV is 20%.  40% stake in MBD which has a 50% stake in Bukit Timah Green development which is the developer for Skywoods.

I also found this article:
http://sbr.com.sg/building-engineering/n...esidential
The land sale is $244mil so total development cost is about $361mil for Skywoods.

I estimated the Skywoods total revenue to be about $470mil so KWC profit to be about $22mil.

KWC also has some property investment in Thailand.

The thai property is a 30% stake in SI Property, which owns and manages 17,308 square metres of office and commercial space in Liberty Plaza in Bangkok. There's no more liabilities from the thai properties though.
So the main concern now is really just the Dalian project and potentially the Starlight suites too if they cant sell the remaining 31 units by mid 2016
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