Yeo Hiap Seng

[Vseeker]

certain things in life, can see, no touch !!

it seem to me that YHS share price been "engineered" up by almost over 4 folds to over $5.00 now... versus ONLY $1.20 four months ago, and only $1 at start of year
BASED on YHS AR2011 as rough guide:
YHS shrs (as at Mar2012) are held by ONLY a very small number of people....
1000-to-10,000 shares range - only 351 shrhldrs with aggregate of 1.379m shrs
10,001-to-1,000,000 rs range- ONLY 143 shrhldrs with aggregate of 5.310m shrs
Above 1m shares range => there are 12 holders controlling 567.4m shrs (98.83% of listed shrs - bulk are under FE Holdings & also FEOrchard)

Implication of above: market price of YHS CAN BE EASILY Manipulated
dun know why FEOrchard taking so long to do the DIS-of-those-YHS shares !!! ,
the longer they take, the more the current market prices of YHS shrs can get manipulated.

Upcoming DIS-of- 83.298m YHS shrs by FEOrchard will create some 5900 new YHS-shrhldrs, and almost everyone of them will endup with some ODD lots shrs
Each FEOrchard share ==> You get $0.12 cash + 0.229 YHS shares

so New YHS Shrhlders: arising from DIS-of-YHS shrs to OPH Shrhldrs (Guesstimate based on OPH Shrhldrs stats as at 15-Mar2012 (OPH AR2011)
443 of them will have average of 171 YHS shrs each,
4094 of them will have average 1047 YHS shrs
1346 of them will have average 9120 YHS shrs
==> so its v. likely that many of them will be selling their newly dis-YHS shrs... they will be selling their odd lots !!!

for those thinking of buying FEOrchard coz you figuring that 0.229 YHS shrs be worth XX dollars !
be careful that X-dis price for FEOrchard, might correct downward by that lofty quantum (0.229 * YHS shr price),
but by the time, your a/c get credited with your ""DIS-YHS shrs"", YHS share price would had already plunge !!..
.... so your 0.229 YHS shr gonna be worth very much lesser !!

btw: YHS's latest strong earnings unlikely to get repeated coz property contributed a huge chunk (TOP of Jardin project in 2012-Q1),
but there will be no repeat of Jardin's TOP beyond current FY.

FE Orchard NAV is $3 ok. RNAV is $3.45 based on current YHS price.

NAV $3, RNAv $3.45 is no big deal.

despite price runup in recent months, there are still many other ppties and hotel counters that trade at easily 20% discount to Book Navs and HUGE discount to RNAVs (30%, up to even 50% discount).

and for many years, OrchardP had been stating values of its hotel assets at Market Valuations (even for those being carried under PP+E).

The more common practices by most of the other Spore listed hotels, have been to state their hotel assets at more conservative basis - of Costs less Dep. eg. Amara, OUE, Uol, HPL.

[weijian]

I cant help but kick myself. As a long time yhs shareholder i sold it at 2.2 and thought heng ah got out of this value trap.... Oh well!!!

well, a judgement of whether the correct decision was made or not, should be based on the available info that the person had at the time of judgement, rather than the actual outcome itself. Hindsight is always 20/20. Was there any thing that u could have done back then, to anticipate the mad rush to current price?

[godjira1]

Weijian - understand the logic behind that. Was just griping some anyway haha.

And answer is no, i wouldnt have known because the management did jack to try to improve the performance imo and i didnt want to own the share anyway. So if situation repeated itself again i would still sell.

[ngcheeki]

Based on today closing price of $5.69, YHS is valued at price to book of 5.4X based on 2Q12 NAV of $1.05 and estimated PE of 30.6X based on 3 Oct estimated of EPS of 18.6 cents. This valuation is highest among the Peer comparison except perhaps of APB data provided by Kim Eng Report.

As pointed out by VSeeker, the current EPS is unlikely to be repeated as Jardin their property development project along Bukit Timah contributed substantial proportion of this year earning. If we use, the figure from Kim Eng projected estimation on 3 Oct of 6 to 7 cents for FY2013 and FY2013, YHS PE will be 87.5X.

Vested in FEOrchard but not YHS.

http://www.kimengresearch.com.sg/Downloa...031012.pdf

[ACCORD]

I have some YHS shares credited to my CDP account due to the dividend-in-specie of my FEOrchard shares.

Today I opened my CDP account and discovered that the YeoHS shares is no longer in my account.

Can anyone advise me the reason of such??

Thanks..

[yeokiwi]

I have some YHS shares credited to my CDP account due to the dividend-in-specie of my FEOrchard shares.

Today I opened my CDP account and discovered that the YeoHS shares is no longer in my account.

Can anyone advise me the reason of such??

Thanks..

Assuming that you were still holding on to FEOrchard till the date of XD, you should have YHS shares.
You can check with CDP directly.
But, that is also assuming that FEOchard was in your CDP account and not in some nominee accounts like standard chartered etc...

[shn]

If you participate in share loan scheme of SGX, it may be that someone has loaned your shares to short.

[ACCORD]

Hi shn,
I did not participate in any of these loan scheme or similiar exercise.

Hi yeokiwi
I hold FEOrhard till XD.
Yes, FEOrchard shares are in my CDP account, not in norminee account.

I checked my bank account. There was a dividend payout by FEOrchard on 8th Jan 2013. The FEO dividend value is only 20% of my YHS market value.

Hmmm.....?

[yeokiwi]

Hi shn,
I did not participate in any of these loan scheme or similiar exercise.

Hi yeokiwi
I hold FEOrhard till XD.
Yes, FEOrchard shares are in my CDP account, not in norminee account.

I checked my bank account. There was a dividend payout by FEOrchard on 8th Jan 2013. The FEO dividend value is only 20% of my YHS market value.

Hmmm.....?

Check with CDP since they are the ones who handle the Entitlement Processing and Corporate Actions services.

[ACCORD]

Thanks Bro!