Tai Sin

[paullow]

i did some back of envelop calculations and extrapolations. if this quarter's eps is sustained for the next 3quarters, then whole yr earnings would be a whopping 10c. and at this current price of 29.5c, pe will just be 3!
thus tremendous upside may be on the way for the next 12months or so....

Err, why next 3 quarters ha? I thought Q1 earnings was $4.67, Q2 was 6.84. So first half was $11.51.

PE of 3 with number of shares 435.5mil means earnings of $43mil. You expect second half earnings of $31.5mil? May i ask why the optimism?

thanks for correction bibi, haha maybe too much thinking.
ist half eps is 60% of last yrs not.1q. means whole yr eps might be at least 5-6c. so pe at 29.5c, pe might be 5 and not 3.
on broader aspect, nav is rising, no of shares increasing due to script n hence cap increasing.
again, this is a gia lui stock.
thanks!!!

[paullow]

saw todays papers. lam soon building going for en bloc. taisin investment ppty is there. cld that explain why so much interest in taisin despite euro crisis. anyone knows?

[Ben]

saw todays papers. lam soon building going for en bloc. taisin investment ppty is there. cld that explain why so much interest in taisin despite euro crisis. anyone knows?

According to 2012 AR, the Hillview property is listed as an investment property in its balance sheet. The investment properties comprise the freehold Hillview property and a leasehold condominium in Malaysia. The net book value for these two properties in its balance sheet is $1,221K. The fair value of the Hillview property as at May 14, 2009 amounted to $1,800K and had been determined on the basis of valuations carried out by an independent valuer. The fair value of the Malaysia condo as at June 9, 2010 amounted to $32K and had been determined on the basis of valuations carried out by an independent valuer. Obviously, the market value of the Hillview property now is a lot higher than both the carrying book value and the independent valuation. We can expect an exceptional gain if the deal goes through. However, the gain will be too small to make a difference to the bottom line. Maybe a slightly higher dividend payment?

These properties are rented out and not for operations or manufacturing use. So the sales of the property will not affect their operations.

I think the resilience in Tai Sin is not due to this, but rather it is because its prospect in the near future is bright. This is how I view it.

[paullow]

hi ben,
sounds reasonable. thanks for ur view.

[BeDisciplined]

Ya just 1 unit and $1+ million, not the whole block, where got substabtial financial impact

[paullow]

well, 1.8m factory space in 2009 may be at 400-500psf then. so the space cld be near 4000sf. at current valuation n enbloc going on, this cld be worth at least 4m if not more. still not a big figure, agreed.

[Ben]

So the potential gain could be more than $2M, or 0.5c per share or more. Not a big deal but certainly icing on the cake. Imagine how many tons of wires they need to sell to achieve profits of $2M.

Attempting to break new high now. 32c was the record high set in Feb. At this price, PE is about 6X only. If we assume a conservative PE of 8X, and forecast EPS of 5c (please take note that 1H EPS is already 2.61c), then the price should be 40c, logical?

With the construction boom set to continue for the foreseeable future, things are looking good.

[NTL]

i did some back of envelop calculations and extrapolations. if this quarter's eps is sustained for the next 3quarters, then whole yr earnings would be a whopping 10c. and at this current price of 29.5c, pe will just be 3!
thus tremendous upside may be on the way for the next 12months or so....

Err, why next 3 quarters ha? I thought Q1 earnings was $4.67, Q2 was 6.84. So first half was $11.51.

PE of 3 with number of shares 435.5mil means earnings of $43mil. You expect second half earnings of $31.5mil? May i ask why the optimism?

thanks for correction bibi, haha maybe too much thinking.
ist half eps is 60% of last yrs not.1q. means whole yr eps might be at least 5-6c. so pe at 29.5c, pe might be 5 and not 3.
on broader aspect, nav is rising, no of shares increasing due to script n hence cap increasing.
again, this is a gia lui stock.
thanks!!!

The EPS for Q3 is just a miserable 0.4c! If Q4 is the same, EPS for whole year will be just 3.4c! PE will be 9 at present price.

[Bibi]

Both gross and net margin deteriorated in Q3. Q3 net margin is a mere 2.9%. I think one of the worst in history? No reason was given for this. I think everyone is simply cutting prices to gain business.

Come to think of it, it might be due to copper price drop a lot while Tai Sin bought at higher prices. If this is the case, the fundamentals should remain ok.

The only saving grace is very strong cash from op. If Q4 profit remains at 2mil, than total profit will be ~15mil. About same as year 2012 if you strip away the one off insurance gain portion due to earthquake. But eps will be lesser due to higher outstanding shares.

[NTL]

Both gross and net margin deteriorated in Q3. Q3 net margin is a mere 2.9%. I think one of the worst in history? No reason was given for this. I think everyone is simply cutting prices to gain business.

Come to think of it, it might be due to copper price drop a lot while Tai Sin bought at higher prices. If this is the case, the fundamentals should remain ok.

The only saving grace is very strong cash from op. If Q4 profit remains at 2mil, than total profit will be ~15mil. About same as year 2012 if you strip away the one off insurance gain portion due to earthquake. But eps will be lesser due to higher outstanding shares.

From their inventory size, look like they are carrying around 3mths worth of inventory. If the fall in price has stopped, then the Q4 result will be better.