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(14-01-2016, 11:10 AM)alex Wrote: Hey guys,
What are the challenges facing SM and KC in near and future (3 years)?
Some immediate i can think of:
1. Impairment in receivables/losses in marine sector
2. Impairment in assets in brazil?
3. Cut dividends
4. Order book clarity
5. Sete brazil bankruptcy
Survival
1. How to sustain in low oil prices for next 3 years
2. Capital allocation - Which business line will get priority and which will get chop
3. Fundings - Cost of funding
There is one more to add to the list. They are also embroiled in the corruption scandal in Brazil. To me this is a serious threat to their business there.
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(14-01-2016, 11:10 AM)alex Wrote: Hey guys,
What are the challenges facing SM and KC in near and future (3 years)?
Some immediate i can think of:
1. Impairment in receivables/losses in marine sector
2. Impairment in assets in brazil?
3. Cut dividends
4. Order book clarity
5. Sete brazil bankruptcy
Survival
1. How to sustain in low oil prices for next 3 years
2. Capital allocation - Which business line will get priority and which will get chop
3. Fundings - Cost of funding
Looking at oil futures at the moment, it'll be way more than 3 years of "low oil prices"...
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> How to sustain in low oil prices for next 3 years
I dont think the middle east countries or russia can sustain a huge deficit for 3 years running. If yes, they will sell all their SWF assets and all the assets dumped similar time will result in a fire sale.
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Interesting views, both sides. Guess we can revisit in a year's time to see where oil prices are.
We have seen low commodity prices for a few years, why not oil too? That's one question i can't answer.
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Because commodities are highly pollutive... game over already.
When solar and renewables hit economies of scale, will all these industries (except natural gas) will kaput ? or countries need to use their own minerals to protect the local industries? food for thought
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Privatization of SembMarine, is a common view among analysts. Will it happen?
(not vested)
PACC Offshore, SembMarine prime picks for M&A: report
15 Jan 2016 16:10
By Jamie Lee
MERGERS and acquisitions (M&As) should see a pick-up this year, with PACC Offshore and Sembcorp Marine as prime candidates, said a Maybank-Kim Eng Research report on Friday.
"For 2016, we see M&As accelerating in the oil service industry, where some stocks are so devalued that owners may just decide to privatise," the brokerage pointed out. "In Singapore, there could be more targets than acquirers as most players are small and highly leveraged."
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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17-01-2016, 02:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 17-01-2016, 02:06 PM by Tiggerbee.)
(15-01-2016, 08:26 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Privatization of SembMarine, is a common view among analysts. Will it happen?
(not vested)
PACC Offshore, SembMarine prime picks for M&A: report
15 Jan 2016 16:10
By Jamie Lee
MERGERS and acquisitions (M&As) should see a pick-up this year, with PACC Offshore and Sembcorp Marine as prime candidates, said a Maybank-Kim Eng Research report on Friday.
"For 2016, we see M&As accelerating in the oil service industry, where some stocks are so devalued that owners may just decide to privatise," the brokerage pointed out. "In Singapore, there could be more targets than acquirers as most players are small and highly leveraged."
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News
Before that happens, Sembcorp or Robert Kwok might go for rights issue to make the privatization cheaper for them. Tiger, Chartered and NOL are very good examples.
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(17-01-2016, 02:06 PM)Tiggerbee Wrote: (15-01-2016, 08:26 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Privatization of SembMarine, is a common view among analysts. Will it happen?
(not vested)
PACC Offshore, SembMarine prime picks for M&A: report
15 Jan 2016 16:10
By Jamie Lee
MERGERS and acquisitions (M&As) should see a pick-up this year, with PACC Offshore and Sembcorp Marine as prime candidates, said a Maybank-Kim Eng Research report on Friday.
"For 2016, we see M&As accelerating in the oil service industry, where some stocks are so devalued that owners may just decide to privatise," the brokerage pointed out. "In Singapore, there could be more targets than acquirers as most players are small and highly leveraged."
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News
Before that happens, Sembcorp or Robert Kwok might go for rights issue to make the privatization cheaper for them. Tiger, Chartered and NOL are very good examples. Maybe no chance for rights issue if SETTE BRAZIL declares bankruptcy first.
All the SMM's top brains must be thinking of that already.
If SETTE BRAZIL declares bankruptcy, wonder how low SMM price will drop?
Or Market has already priced that in?
Is it any wonders, when WB said, "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over".
But do you dare to buy now?
Me, i don't know how to calculate leh!
So how to buy?
Anyone want to calculate and show?
Thanks
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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17-01-2016, 07:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 17-01-2016, 07:20 PM by tikam tikam.)
Hihi, how about would you think of returning from cyclical industry to non-cyclical industry for lack of visibility on the business cycle?
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Cyclical or not, when the tide goes out, all boats will be beached. Only some will show more damages than others and some beyond repair. i believe SMM still can be reparied. But at what price?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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