FY14 (ended 31Mar14) full-year results make interesting reading….. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/FT_Annou...eID=299106
After adjusting for one-off items and forex impact, the underlying business continued to generate very decent positive FCF after tax in FY14 which far exceeded capex incurred mainly for expansion of capacity. The higher revenue and significantly higher NP and profitability in the 2H (vs. 1H) suggests that the underlying business is experiencing a positive evolution presently. The 31Mar14 B/S remained rock-solid, and the latest NAV/share at $0.3112 - which included some $0.05/share in net cash - when compared against the last done share price at $0.13 is pointing towards a marked under-priced situation for this stock. I guess sooner or later Mr Market would have to decide whether to re-rate Fischer Tech.
(28-05-2014, 10:33 PM)dydx Wrote: FY14 (ended 31Mar14) full-year results make interesting reading….. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/FT_Annou...eID=299106
After adjusting for one-off items and forex impact, the underlying business continued to generate very decent positive FCF after tax in FY14 which far exceeded capex incurred mainly for expansion of capacity. The higher revenue and significantly higher NP and profitability in the 2H (vs. 1H) suggests that the underlying business is experiencing a positive evolution presently. The 31Mar14 B/S remained rock-solid, and the latest NAV/share at $0.3112 - which included some $0.05/share in net cash - when compared against the last done share price at $0.13 is pointing towards a marked under-priced situation for this stock. I guess sooner or later Mr Market would have to decide whether to re-rate Fischer Tech.
from their historical numbers alone (without delving into qualitative stuff), seems like Mr Market is valuing Fischer at cheap P/B coz of its inconsistent profitability, relatively good margins for these 1-2 years, and its historical tendency to hoard the cash in structured deposits and other investments/or just cash lying in the bank (c. 15% of total assets size). anyone got any insights into this industry? why are their performances so volatile? (just looking at their most recent two years' first half and second half performance - total reverse - 2013 they made lots of money in first half, whereas 2014 they made most of the Net profit in second half).
Rather than delving into the past, I think it is more important and relevant to note Fischer Tech's present business/customer base profile.
From the commentaries in the result announcement, we know that in latest FY14, the Automotive segment's revenue posted a healthy 15.3% YoY increase to $107.2m and now comprised a 74.9% share (up from 70.1% in FY13) of group revenue. We also know from the Geographical Information section in p18 that in FY14, revenue from China and Thailand - notably both have a fast-growing automotive manufacturing sector which are also enjoying growing export demand in automotive components from the world market because of the global out-sourcing trend - continued to grow at a brisk pace of 20.3% YoY and 19.7% YoY, respectively. Quite clearly, Fischer Tech has been making great efforts in the last few years to re-position its business and customer focus away from the more competitive Computer Peripherals and Consumer Electronics segment, and towards the technically more demanding and more promising Automotive segment. The latest results - especially evidenced by the significantly better 2H's revenue and profit numbers, and higher capex to expand capacity - seem to indicate early success of this re-positioning strategy and business focus.
(29-05-2014, 10:43 AM)NxKaT Wrote: Ain't too optimistic since Daisuke Ono's disposal on 16-Jan [$0.136/shr]
[Not vested, took profits]
From my recollection, this is not the first time Daisuke Ono has reduced its stake. Perhaps it is more important to find out who had bought the shares sold by Daisuke Ono. I believe Fischer Tech's management - Tan Choon King, CEO, and Tay Kok Leong, ED - had bought a chunk of the shares previously sold by Daisuke Ono. Well, Fischer Tech has paid/declared a total of 4 dividends since Aug12. If Daisuke Ono had held on to the shares, he would have benefited a lot more including the higher share price now..
29-05-2014, 12:06 PM (This post was last modified: 29-05-2014, 12:37 PM by BlueKelah.)
(29-05-2014, 11:10 AM)dydx Wrote:
(29-05-2014, 10:43 AM)NxKaT Wrote: Ain't too optimistic since Daisuke Ono's disposal on 16-Jan [$0.136/shr]
[Not vested, took profits]
From my recollection, this is not the first time Daisuke Ono has reduced its stake. Perhaps it is more important to find out who had bought the shares sold by Daisuke Ono. I believe Fischer Tech's management - Tan Choon King, CEO, and Tay Kok Leong, ED - had bought a chunk of the shares previously sold by Daisuke Ono. Well, Fischer Tech has paid/declared a total of 4 dividends since Aug12. If Daisuke Ono had held on to the shares, he would have benefited a lot more including the higher share price now..
Daisuke ono sold the shares via open market transaction not married deal and also Tan and Tay should have had to declare increased stake if its market transaction. So maybe one of our forum buddies is major shareholder now
Dunno why the big run up, must be lack of counter to speculate on SGX and with the GAP UP lotsa punters coming in. The dividend declared in fact is less than last year leh but net cash improving. Must be the improving profit as last 1H was 0.6EPS then now increase to 2.43 so second half EPS must have been 1.83 which as dydx said 3c EPS is possible. not sure why they are not giving more dividends... also associated companies loss seem to be on the increase.
But overall looks like a good report. However china PMI is contracting so next report may not be as good. Will be vesting only if the cash level comes up to a more comfortable level as I dont know the quality of their assets.
(29-05-2014, 12:06 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: But overall looks like a good report. However china PMI is contracting so next report may not be as good.
Instead of China's PMI, I guess it is more appropriate to look at China's overall output of passenger vehicles and auto parts made of plastics or with plastic content. It is also useful to look at similar industry statistics from Thailand. Without looking at such country industry statistics, I guess we can just look at the huge number of cars on the road in most big Chinese cities and in Bangkok to draw a simple conclusion on what is driving Fischer Tech's revenue and profit increases presently and into the medium-term future.
29-05-2014, 05:23 PM (This post was last modified: 29-05-2014, 05:26 PM by BlueKelah.)
In that case fischer tech will be a big BUY BUY BUY as thailand will be absorbing capacity from the Aussie car companies closing here and also from china changing to new more emission friendly vehicles.. Looks like only upside from here on no?
and why is management not giving more dividends this year since business is turning around, are they expecting a huge capex coming up or something?
Only thing to worry with china exposure is that if any sort of financial crisis there car market will be hit also, but then globally everything will be hit too...
Anyone researched into the management track record? i think this is a statistically cheap stocks but whether it can maintain its margins is another issue. I am definitely not enchanted by the post GFC negative margins + termination of dividends. And their latest year margins seem to be quite high as compared to the past. could it be like what dydx said, due to the change in customer mix? (more to automotive? instead of comp peripherals and etc).
29-05-2014, 07:33 PM (This post was last modified: 29-05-2014, 07:42 PM by CY09.)
Perhaps you could read the company's AR 13 report and you will know the coy's strategy of moving towards automotive. Also from what the CIMB report on page 3, molds for plastic components of automotive stay relevant longer compared to consumer/ electronics. This eliminates the need of constantly changing to meet customer's demand
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