China Merchants Holdings Pacific

[Jacmar]

My interpretation after reading the GO doc is this. If after the GO deadline and is still conditional, shareholders can sell their shares in the open market? 
<< If the GO pass deadline and still remain conditional then YES the share will be returned to you and you can sell it. Most likely the price will gap down towards pre-GO price by then. >>

In the event the GO price is raised after the deadline, those who have or have not accepted will be entitled to the new GO price.
<< This is correct but the raised price has to be done before the deadline an then an extension of 2 weeks given. this is why there are some punters who is willing to tikam and buy at $1.025 and pay a slight premium in the hope that they might raise the offer price and make some coffee $.  Of course there is a risk that the GO might failed and price collapse. Given now that it is very close to the 90% (89.33% now) very likely chance it will go unconditional. So basically a floor has been set at 1.02. >>

In the event the GO price is lowered, those who have accepted in the first place will receive the original GO price while those who didnt will get the new lower GO price if GO becomes unconditional. << the GO price cannot be lowered. The offer doc is a contract of offer and cannot be rescind. They can come back after 12 mths of the failed GO with another GO either lower or higher in price.>> 

My interpretation correction or not ha? 

  Pls see above. It would be interesting to see if they will raise the price given that they are far from the compulsory acquisition %age. For us we are in a sweet spot if we accept. this is why i have already sent in my acceptance.

[Bibi]

My interpretation after reading the GO doc is this. If after the GO deadline and is still conditional, shareholders can sell their shares in the open market? 
<< If the GO pass deadline and still remain conditional then YES the share will be returned to you and you can sell it. Most likely the price will gap down towards pre-GO price by then. >>

In the event the GO price is raised after the deadline, those who have or have not accepted will be entitled to the new GO price.
<< This is correct but the raised price has to be done before the deadline an then an extension of 2 weeks given. this is why there are some punters who is willing to tikam and buy at $1.025 and pay a slight premium in the hope that they might raise the offer price and make some coffee $.  Of course there is a risk that the GO might failed and price collapse. Given now that it is very close to the 90% (89.33% now) very likely chance it will go unconditional. So basically a floor has been set at 1.02. >>

In the event the GO price is lowered, those who have accepted in the first place will receive the original GO price while those who didnt will get the new lower GO price if GO becomes unconditional. << the GO price cannot be lowered. The offer doc is a contract of offer and cannot be rescind. They can come back after 12 mths of the failed GO with another GO either lower or higher in price.>> 

My interpretation correction or not ha? 

  Pls see above. It would be interesting to see if they will raise the price given that they are far from the compulsory acquisition %age. For us we are in a sweet spot if we accept. this is why i have already sent in my acceptance.

Thanks for all the replies. 

Now I dont understand why we are in a sweet spot if we accept. Whether I accept or dont accept and GO failed, I dont gain. Whether I accept or dont accept and GO becomes unconditional I also dont gain, since I can accept after GO becomes unconditional.

[Bibi]

I think a more likely win win case is sell 50% of holdings in the open market now. If GO fails, very likely share price will drop. Buy back the 50% holdings. If GO succeeds, I only loss brokerage fee.

I will loss big is when the GO price adjust upwards by a few bits. But my consolation will be my other 50% holdings will receive the higher GO price . Any pp here thinks the chance of Go price adjusted upwards is high?

[Jacmar]

Now I dont understand why we are in a sweet spot if we accept.<< If you accept and they raise offer price you still enjoy the higher price. If you don't accept and the GO becomes unconditional and they don't want to raise the offer price and not able to reach compulsory acq, you will be given a certificate and shareholder of an unlisted company in China. How you feel about this?? still no difference?>>

Whether I accept or dont accept and GO failed, I dont gain.<< If GO failed ie less than 90%, then we are back to square one. As I have said earlier highly unlikely as they already have 89.33% as of today. Still think it will fail?? they can offer a few more wks and they will reach 90% easily. >> Whether I accept or dont accept and GO becomes unconditional I also dont gain, since I can accept after GO becomes unconditional.<< if you don't accept and offer becomes unconditional as i said above you hold a cert of unlisted co. You sure you want to do that?>>

Hope it is clearer now

[touzi]

Now I dont understand why we are in a sweet spot if we accept.<< If you accept and they raise offer price you still enjoy the higher price. If you don't accept and the GO becomes unconditional and they don't want to raise the offer price and not able to reach compulsory acq, you will be given a certificate and shareholder of an unlisted company in China. How you feel about this?? still no difference?>>

Isn't the criteria the same  for GO be unconditional and compulsory acquisition, i.e. 90%?

[Bibi]

Whether I accept or dont accept and GO becomes unconditional I also dont gain, since I can accept after GO becomes unconditional.<< if you don't accept and offer becomes unconditional as i said above you hold a cert of unlisted co. You sure you want to do that?>>

Hi Jacmar, Cityfarmer mentions previously that a dissenting shareholder can choose to accept once the GO becomes unconditional within 7 days. So meaning I can dont accept now but choose to accept within 7 days ONLY once GO becomes unconditional. That way, I will not be issued a cert. Correct?

[ghchua]

Isn't the criteria the same  for GO be unconditional and compulsory acquisition, i.e. 90%?

No. They are not the same. The criteria for GO to be unconditional is that the offeror owns more than 90% of the total outstanding shares. The criteria for compulsory acquisition is that the offeror acquires more than 90% of the total number of offer shares (excluding those held by offeror when they made the offer).

[ghchua]

Hi Jacmar, Cityfarmer mentions previously that a dissenting shareholder can choose to accept once the GO becomes unconditional within 7 days. So meaning I can dont accept now but choose to accept within 7 days ONLY once GO becomes unconditional. That way, I will not be issued a cert. Correct?

You have plenty of time to accept, even after the offer closes. Do remember that under Section 215(3) of the Companies Act, if the Offeror holds more than 90% of the total number of shares, dissenting shareholders have the right to require the Offeror to acquire their shares at the offer price.

[Jacmar]

Isn't the criteria the same  for GO be unconditional and compulsory acquisition, i.e. 90%?

No. They are not the same. The criteria for GO to be unconditional is that the offeror owns more than 90% of the total outstanding shares. The criteria for compulsory acquisition is that the offeror acquires more than 90% of the total number of offer shares (excluding those held by offeror when they made the offer).

Do you guys read newpapers? they took out ads in all the major newspaper yesterday. Under item (4) it was mentioned that they need to own 97.6% to be able to do compulsory acquisition. Looks like iffy to me as they are just 89.3% now. so maybe(foolishly hoping) there is a chance that they might up the offer price. I have a gut feel that they may up by 3-3.5 cents to achieve this. Why this amt? This is the div that is due for 1st half results. So not an issue if they "give" it to us. Swee Boh? I think it s given that the offer will be extended. Let's see next wk.

[MINX]

Isn't the criteria the same  for GO be unconditional and compulsory acquisition, i.e. 90%?

No. They are not the same. The criteria for GO to be unconditional is that the offeror owns more than 90% of the total outstanding shares. The criteria for compulsory acquisition is that the offeror acquires more than 90% of the total number of offer shares (excluding those held by offeror when they made the offer).

Do you guys read newpapers? they took out ads in all the major newspaper yesterday. Under item (4) it was mentioned that they need to own 97.6% to be able to do compulsory acquisition. Looks like iffy to me as they are just 89.3% now. so maybe(foolishly hoping) there is a chance that they might up the offer price. I have a gut feel that they may up by 3-3.5 cents to achieve this. Why this amt? This is the div that is due for 1st half results. So not an issue if they "give" it to us. Swee Boh? I think it s given that the offer will be extended. Let's see next wk.

Nice, still holding onto my towel.