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Hello Buddies,
This is my first ever post. Have been reading this thread for a while but never had the detailed knowledge like the gurus here to post.
Its so quiet that we can hear a pin drop. Price has retraced quite a bit. Is everyone still invested ? CNY is depreciating against the USD but little change against the SGD.
I'm still watching but getting interesting at these levels.
not vested
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Vested yesterday. Im holding my bullets for 70+ and 60+ cents level if it ever comes down. It pays to be patient  . If dividend cuts during the 4Q result announcement, I believe it will drop some more.
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Analyst target 1.45 leh last year..
Went to look at the website, other than one picture of lorry lane full the car lane and highway looks very empty leh.
Hopefully its not 'ghost' tolls servicing ghost cities. Lol.
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When the sentiment is bad, even fundamentals can be questionable and speculated upon.
Overall, there are no doubts that the knives are out to have a go at the Communists.
The main question here if mkt has gotten overly pessimistic over China and its economically transforming billion population.
In value investments, fundamentals - cashflows and dividends will eventually matter. There is no doubt that it is a tough game and its always stupid to be long when the whole world is against oneself.
Will be interesting to see how "bad" CMP's results will be and the extent of dividend "cuts" as reflected in the share price.
Looking beyond share prices, road infrastructure is possibly the most defensive sector in terms of boring value investments. Unlike many investment bank backed infrastructure business trusts, CMP has lesser financial engineering in its road portfolios and for quality China toll road exposures, there are only a handful of listcos on HKSE and SGX.
Vested Core
GG
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Value investors simply ignore sentiments and also noises of taunts.
If one has done the research, then have the conviction to hold onto them when the sentiment tide turns. For value investors, it is not stupid to be long when the whole world is against oneself, it is simply his/her style of investing. Contrarians need to get used to been looked upon as stupid, whether in bull or bear markets.
If the market turns to be worst, for one, I wouldn't be looking forward to buying defensive sectors. My capital needs to turn aggressive, when others are looking at defensive stuff.
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11-01-2016, 09:37 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2016, 10:45 AM by CityFarmer.)
(11-01-2016, 12:00 AM)weijian Wrote: Value investors simply ignore sentiments and also noises of taunts.
If one has done the research, then have the conviction to hold onto them when the sentiment tide turns. For value investors, it is not stupid to be long when the whole world is against oneself, it is simply his/her style of investing. Contrarians need to get used to been looked upon as stupid, whether in bull or bear markets.
If the market turns to be worst, for one, I wouldn't be looking forward to buying defensive sectors. My capital needs to turn aggressive, when others are looking at defensive stuff.
Value investors should ignore sentiments, but shouldn't ignore fundamentals changes, either in companies, or markets, IMO.
The current low of the company, is likely due to devaluation of RMB. It has an impact, since its revenues are in RMB, and dividend and market price are in S$. The IV valuation should be adjusted lower accordingly, IMO.
Invest in defensive sectors, and be aggressive aren't contradicting, right? Aggressive means, investor heavily in those very under-valued stocks, which can be in defensive sectors. 
(vested)
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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thank you buddies. while RMB has depreciated a lot against the USD, but I think against the SGD, it has not depreciated that much.
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I believe CM Pacific has debts that are in US dollars but I have not quantified that yet. I believe depreciation of RMB against US dollars has a huge impact on that - CM Pacific earns its income in RMB but has to repay its debts in US dollars!
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Classic double whammy on earnings and payout when currency depreciates and interest on debts increase.
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(11-01-2016, 09:37 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: (11-01-2016, 12:00 AM)weijian Wrote: Value investors simply ignore sentiments and also noises of taunts.
If one has done the research, then have the conviction to hold onto them when the sentiment tide turns. For value investors, it is not stupid to be long when the whole world is against oneself, it is simply his/her style of investing. Contrarians need to get used to been looked upon as stupid, whether in bull or bear markets.
If the market turns to be worst, for one, I wouldn't be looking forward to buying defensive sectors. My capital needs to turn aggressive, when others are looking at defensive stuff.
Value investors should ignore sentiments, but shouldn't ignore fundamentals changes, either in companies, or markets, IMO.
The current low of the company, is likely due to devaluation of RMB. It has an impact, since its revenues are in RMB, and dividend and market price are in S$. The IV valuation should be adjusted lower accordingly, IMO.
Invest in defensive sectors, and be aggressive aren't contradicting, right? Aggressive means, investor heavily in those very under-valued stocks, which can be in defensive sectors.
(vested)
Hi CF,
Value investors track value, and of course value changes are toggled by fundamental changes. But we do live in a complicated world - whether sentiment toggle fundamentals, or fundamentals toggle sentiment...it is not very obvious. An approximately close (but not accurate) answer would be 'both' and it is up to the thoughtful investor to determine 'how much is each?'
My aggressive means 'investing in non-defensive sectors' - where expectations are beaten-up or the future is muddy (but there is a track record from Mgt with a conservative balance sheet), not really the action itself.
When people are paying too much for uncertainty (non-defensive sectors), it might be better to invest in certainties (defensive sectors or simply put them in cash). When people are paying too much for certainty, it might be better to put money in uncertainties... There might just be a nice fat premium that lays the foundation for a bountiful harvest in the future
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