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Wildreamz, yes I meant to say billion instead of million.
Kaimin,
That sample calculation was an aggressive scenario to share my thoughts and perform a quick run through the numbers. It would be better to perform for other scenarios to estimate the instrinic value. Neither has I performed detailed research to justify the above assumed numbers. In no way am I suggesting there is still value in FB.
Regarding the declining PE ratio, maybe it could be that Mr Market is more optismic about FB prospects when it's market share is smaller, and of course more pessimistic recently. No doubt FB will incur higher operating expenses to self regulate in future, due to scandals and increasing regulations. The market is currently factoring in near term reduction in earnings from more operating expenses. However I believe FB's moat will be stronger as a result. Government regulations always result in a more consolidated industry.
AQ,
I don't think the growth of the "Tech" sector is due to the Fed. Although the Fed did inflate the bubble, high valuations and easy financing, FB's sales/earnings growth will happen with or w/o the Fed's easy money due to the nature of it's business and the change in paradigm.
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25-12-2018, 04:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 25-12-2018, 04:56 PM by weijian.)
I am reminded of WB's adage that when you see a cockroach, soon you will see its relatives.
IIRC, this all came to a boil from the election of Trump (Russian operatives, fake news) and followed by Cambridge Analytica...The list seems to continue.
As Facebook Raised a Privacy Wall, It Carved an Opening for Tech Giants
Personal data is the oil of the 21st century, a resource worth billions to those who can most effectively extract and refine it. American companies alone are expected to spend close to $20 billion by the end of 2018 to acquire and process consumer data, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau.
Few companies have better data than Facebook and its rival, Google, whose popular products give them an intimate view into the daily lives of billions of people — and allow them to dominate the digital advertising market.
Facebook has never sold its user data, fearful of user backlash and wary of handing would-be competitors a way to duplicate its most prized asset. Instead, internal documents show, it did the next best thing: granting other companies access to parts of the social network in ways that advanced its own interests.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/techn...ivacy.html
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Yes, for that reason, I'm currently out of Facebook. Their valuation is attractive, and their business, in principle, is solid. BUT, they have a very poor track record of managing personal data, and the tons of issue that comes with managing a 2.2 billion people platform.
Any platform that can be abused, WILL be abused. After all the apologies and excuses, if you have faith that they have everything figured out, and everything will smooth sailing from here, I think Facebook may be a good long term investment.
But from what I can tell, they have lost their reputation, the trust of potential business partners, potential employees, and possibly customers. I no longer have enough faith in the management to keep investing in them.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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Frankly, when we use FB, need to be prepared that whatever up there has to be assume that is not private and can be seen by all. FB is social media ...
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24-01-2019, 06:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 24-01-2019, 06:53 AM by weijian.)
This sure, is a crowded market with Amazon hot behind ur wheels
Amazon will win advertising dollars away from Facebook amid privacy concerns, a new survey suggests
https://www.recode.net/2019/1/10/1817708...wen-survey
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The ads spend is accelerating on Instagram. Untapped mega opportunity channel for ordinary folks like us to sell through Instagram through their Call-to-Action (CTA) buttons
https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/...-igtv.html
I see Facebook as a marketing tool for people who do not have huge marketing budgets. Earn a bit from everyone by having a product that appeals to the masses.
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24-01-2019, 10:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 24-01-2019, 10:06 AM by specuvestor.)
Actually many people don't remember or realise that Instagram is owned by FB
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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Oculus also
Sent from my CLT-L29 using Tapatalk
Using Tapatalk
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(24-01-2019, 09:11 AM)kelvesy Wrote: The ads spend is accelerating on Instagram. Untapped mega opportunity channel for ordinary folks like us to sell through Instagram through their Call-to-Action (CTA) buttons
https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/...-igtv.html
I see Facebook as a marketing tool for people who do not have huge marketing budgets. Earn a bit from everyone by having a product that appeals to the masses.
Indeed, Instagram/whatsapp are under-monetized for now and have a long runway. Been "branded differently" from FB is also a plus in the current circumstances. But the question would be, will it help to expand FB's reach or actually only help it to defend its turf?
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article sheds some light on the whatsapp acquisition. overall very interesting read n shows the power of big tech today. facebook keeps with data sniffing n other violations... consumers have to choice but to spectate? get victimized slowly through the loss of control n privacy? even the act of apple "standing up" for consumers and removing disobeying apps from the store is such a powerful one.
"Facebook first got into the data-sniffing business when it acquired Onavo for around $120 million in 2014. The VPN app helped users track and minimize their mobile data plan usage, but also gave Facebook deep analytics about what other apps they were using. Internal documents acquired by Charlie Warzel and Ryan Mac of BuzzFeed News reveal that Facebook was able to leverage Onavo to learn that WhatsApp was sending more than twice as many messages per day as Facebook Messenger. Onavo allowed Facebook to spot WhatsApp’s meteoric rise and justify paying $19 billion to buy the chat startup in 2014. WhatsApp has since tripled its user base, demonstrating the power of Onavo’s foresight."
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/29/facebo...ect-atlas/
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