Thanks for the additional data and analysis!
This was my calculations in March:
Scenario 1: No more warrants exercised, no refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan yet
Per annum interest: 0.730 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.73 = 1.66 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.66 JPY or 0.023 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0138 SGD or 8.36% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0161 SGD or 9.75% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0184 SGD or 11.15% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0207 SGD or 12.54% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 40c (0.165 is 58.7% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 36.9%
Scenario 2: No more warrants exercised, refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan at 4% interest rate
Per annum interest: 0.51 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.51 = 1.87 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.87 JPY or 0.0267 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.01602 SGD or 9.71% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.01869 SGD or 11.3% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.02136 SGD or 12.94% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.02403 SGD or 14.56% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 40c (0.165 is 58.7% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 36.9%
Scenario 3: All warrants exercised, no refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan yet
Assume proceeds of warrants used to pay YK Shintoku's debts
Per annum interest: 0.549 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.549 = 1.835 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1.5 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.22 JPY or 0.0175 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0105 SGD or 6.35% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0122 SGD or 7.41% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0140 SGD or 8.47% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0157 SGD or 9.53% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 26c (0.165 is 40% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 30.9%
Scenario 4: All warrants exercised, refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan at 4% interest rate
Assume proceeds of warrants used to pay YK Shintoku's debts
Per annum interest: 0.405 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.405 = 1.979 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1.5 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.32 JPY or 0.0188 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0113 SGD or 6.85% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0132 SGD or 7.99% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0150 SGD or 9.14% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0170 SGD or 10.28% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 26c (0.165 is 40% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 30.9%
This was my calculations in March:
Scenario 1: No more warrants exercised, no refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan yet
Per annum interest: 0.730 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.73 = 1.66 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.66 JPY or 0.023 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0138 SGD or 8.36% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0161 SGD or 9.75% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0184 SGD or 11.15% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0207 SGD or 12.54% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 40c (0.165 is 58.7% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 36.9%
Scenario 2: No more warrants exercised, refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan at 4% interest rate
Per annum interest: 0.51 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.51 = 1.87 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.87 JPY or 0.0267 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.01602 SGD or 9.71% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.01869 SGD or 11.3% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.02136 SGD or 12.94% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.02403 SGD or 14.56% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 40c (0.165 is 58.7% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 36.9%
Scenario 3: All warrants exercised, no refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan yet
Assume proceeds of warrants used to pay YK Shintoku's debts
Per annum interest: 0.549 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.549 = 1.835 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1.5 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.22 JPY or 0.0175 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0105 SGD or 6.35% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0122 SGD or 7.41% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0140 SGD or 8.47% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0157 SGD or 9.53% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 26c (0.165 is 40% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 30.9%
Scenario 4: All warrants exercised, refinancing of YK Shintoku Loan at 4% interest rate
Assume proceeds of warrants used to pay YK Shintoku's debts
Per annum interest: 0.405 JPY bil
Per annum Net Income: 1.45+0.944-0.405 = 1.979 JPY bil
Number of shares: 1.5 bil (rounded up)
Net income per share: 1.32 JPY or 0.0188 SGD (S$1 to 70 JPY)
Assume 60% dividend payout: 0.0113 SGD or 6.85% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 70% dividend payout: 0.0132 SGD or 7.99% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 80% dividend payout: 0.0150 SGD or 9.14% at 0.165 SGD
Assume 90% dividend payout: 0.0170 SGD or 10.28% at 0.165 SGD
NAV (SG): 26c (0.165 is 40% discount to NAV)
Gearing: 30.9%
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