The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[Behappyalways]

Should be out of the market by 1st half 2012.....hopefully the bull market will last longer till end 2012......my guess there would be a black swan, a kinda perfect storm which would cause significant drop in stock market. Initially I was thinking maybe the best time to buy after selling out would be 2014, 2015......but if the market drops sharply enough and we have inflation due to balance sheet expansion by central banks.......leading to companies making record profits.....the entry date to buy again might be sooner.


A Weakened Sarkozy Faces His Last Big Campaign
http://www.spiegel.de/international/euro...02,00.html


Special Series: European Economies At Risk - Greece
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/special...isk-greece


Global liquidity peak spells trouble for late 2012
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...-2012.html

[gutman]

a bit of sidetrack.....was having fun monitoring to see how accurate astrology is on the stock market......

3月4日——金星冲土星 影 响力前后三天。金融市场方面也会受到影响力波及，产生回落，短线投资者可 以在前半周逢高出货。

3月5日——金星进入金牛座 从社会角度而言，金星回归金牛座让此前一度低迷的金融市场重获新机，呈现震荡上扬走势。

3月14日——金星木星合相及金木火冥大三角：影响力前后四天 从社会角度而言，这是实实在在的桃花季节，让人们对爱情的渴望更为强烈。金融方面则会呈单边上涨之态，人们的投资欲望也极为强烈。


3月24日——太阳天王星合相 影 响力前后四天 从社会角度而言，在娱乐、投资领域都可能发生出人意表的事情，股票金融市场在此期间也会呈震荡走势，可能伴有短线下调。另外，也有爆发大规模自然灾害或是与孩子相关的突发事件。

3月29日——太阳与冥王星相刑 影 响力前后三天 另外与娱乐、投资、幼儿相关领域也可能会有恶性事件发生。

in short we should see bull till last 10 days of march then correction.....end march or early apr, we might have some bad news.....

just for fun...believe it or not....^^let's see if this astrologer is good....

Interesting.

Today is 14 March, and the market is heading up as predicted. See also http://www.zaobao.com.sg/gj/gj120314_007.shtml

[camelking]

Should be out of the market by 1st half 2012.....hopefully the bull market will last longer till end 2012......my guess there would be a black swan, a kinda perfect storm which would cause significant drop in stock market. Initially I was thinking maybe the best time to buy after selling out would be 2014, 2015......but if the market drops sharply enough and we have inflation due to balance sheet expansion by central banks.......leading to companies making record profits.....the entry date to buy again might be sooner.


A Weakened Sarkozy Faces His Last Big Campaign
http://www.spiegel.de/international/euro...02,00.html


Special Series: European Economies At Risk - Greece
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/special...isk-greece


Global liquidity peak spells trouble for late 2012
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...-2012.html

Somebody told me to get out by October...
Let see if it is true.

[Behappyalways]

depends on how much stocks you have.....might be time to sell.....not to forget Israel best time to attack Iran is in April, May or June.....clear sky.....

well hope bull run will stay for much longer.......

[brattzz]

personally speaking...BULL run!

despite all the wooo-hoos... not possible to predict...

[Behappyalways]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88689310/

[Behappyalways]

Nasdaq breakout but US market breadth shows weakness




26th March: A breakout from channel resistance on the Nasdaq last week was an encouraging signal for the US markets. However, new 52 week highs on the NYSE are still modest when compared with those of last year when the NYA was at comparable levels. This is a sign of bearish divergence which could indicate that the current rally is weaker than we might have hoped.

Europe was rather lacklustre last week as were emerging markets as represented by EEM. In Asia Korea, Singapore and Malaysia still look strong. But Hongkong and India are looking weak and dangerous. Thailand has also turned on strong resistance and could easily top at the current level despite long term bullish targets.

http://www.asiachart.com/hkchina.html

Jim Rogers Interview on being successful, investing in the future, and preparing for civil unrest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-XBNXKTt...r_embedded

[weijian]

Forget about the Iran-Israel's conflict causing an oil spike or the EuroZone crisis (which seems to be the story of yesterday in a maniac market), the next black swan could be the inevitable abrupt devaluation of the YEN that will hit the exporting economies (China, South Korea and Spore of course! - right in our backyard) hard. Couple this with a rise of FED interest rates and hot money starts flowing out - take this double hit combo!!

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning
http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177.html

[Behappyalways]

I am still trying to digest an article which suggests a strong yen rally.....

part of the article....


From the early 1960s almost, Japan began recording current-account surpluses. Unlike Germany, it always invoiced in dollars.

So Japan is short its own currency, and has an enormous private-sector hoard of foreign assets. If the Nikkei falls, and your hedge and private-equity funds fall, pension funds in Tokyo will have fewer yen assets, but their liabilities will be the same. So they'd have to sell some overseas dollar assets and retrade them back to yen. If we have a series of bad events from China to Europe, that will express itself in a very strong yen rally.

.......................................................................................
"I speak the truth not so much as I would, but as much as I dare:

and I dare a little more as I grow older."

- Michel de Montaigne (influential writer of the French Renaissance)

(I think one should start looking at one's portfolio and considering reducing their stake in stock market or property....)

Forget about the Iran-Israel's conflict causing an oil spike or the EuroZone crisis (which seems to be the story of yesterday in a maniac market), the next black swan could be the inevitable abrupt devaluation of the YEN that will hit the exporting economies (China, South Korea and Spore of course! - right in our backyard) hard. Couple this with a rise of FED interest rates and hot money starts flowing out - take this double hit combo!!

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning
http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177.html

[weijian]

hi Behappyalways,
all signs indeed point to a strong yen. That is why a sudden yen depreciation (apparently the only way to revive its comptitiveness, according to the owner) is a black swan n we can seldom predict or time its coming.