The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[corydorus]

Greece pass half their debt to banks. Banks pass it to chinese ? Debt still there. -.-

I think is a recipe to ask Italy, Portugal and Spain to do the same to banks else "I will default !"

[mrEngineer]

After this entire ordeal is over, it is clear that both Europe and US plans to go for more moderate inflation so as to keep their exchange rates low to lower cost of imports and compete with China. Ultimately, this means the western world may be able to get their act right and result in a return of the capital back to buy the crazily devalued assets (for e.g. real estates in London) and cut down the snobbish compliance crap that has limited their growth.

This means a serious blow to Asia if we are not able to generate wealth fast enough to sustain our mouths or our lifestyles. Imagine real estate prices in Singapore crashing 20-30% because all the China and Indonesia people have to pull back funds to cover all margin losses or all forms of business financing related problems. Hopefully we can survive such an ordeal. The Asians are getting abit snobbish too. Look at how China is trying to spend its money away. The intention is good but execution is poor.

[weijian]

After this entire ordeal is over, it is clear that both Europe and US plans to go for more moderate inflation so as to keep their exchange rates low to lower cost of imports and compete with China. Ultimately, this means the western world may be able to get their act right and result in a return of the capital back to buy the crazily devalued assets (for e.g. real estates in London) and cut down the snobbish compliance crap that has limited their growth.

Personally, as someone from a Mfg background, i do not think any production that moves to developed countries will ever reverse in a huge manner, because this is a structural shift. However, with a lower exchange rate, they will be able to create higher demand for their higher valued products (from the rest of the world that are appreciating in their currencies). Asia's slow controlled appreciation of its currency hopefully can help to improve the lives of billions as they are able to consume more.

What goes up, must come down (and vice versa) - if it doesnt track any meaningful reflective indicator (eg. GDP growth, median incomes).

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Greece pass half their debt to banks. Banks pass it to chinese ? Debt still there. -.-

The Chinese has no choice as it needs to diversify away from US treasuries...As a chinese myself, i hope our asian virtue of thriftness is rewarded in the style of warren buffett's investment in GS, rather than the Spore Gov's investment in ML/CB/CS..

[brattzz]

since they can't get yuan up, they make US$/EURO$ down... :O

Is London's properties really on discount now? saw a lot of ads in straits times..

[wsreader]

The news report posted by Behappyalways on
"China developers struggling for cash: Hang Lung
Situation is so bad that some smaller companies may go bust, says its chief"

reminds me of this recent announcement from a sgx listed company

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...60035C7DD/$file/CGL.Announcement.pdf?openelement

It is true there is excess capacity at the moment.

[corydorus]

Millions of Chinese is still in poverty. I see no reason why should Chinese gov gives money for the unemployed greeks and civil servants to live a luxurious lifestyle so that chinese can continue to work like dog in the factory. Must well give their own money to their own citizens. My take is even if Greece goes into 10 years recession they can still be better off than many average chinese citizens.

Another issue i foresee is that this will set a dangerous precedence that Spain and Italy can "default" since they can get away with 50% debt forgiven. Why would they proceed with further austerity measures ?

[Bibi]

Someone told me during the Asia financial crisis, our govt would rather prefer to use the reserves money to help Indonesia than to help spore companies and it's pp. The then president ong rejected the request to use the reserves to help Indonesia. How true is the source I don't know.

I watch the movie "in time" and agree with what the movie say. You actually need alot of poor people to keep the economy humming. If the poor becomes rich, the economy will suffer. To keep economy humming, the country will have to search elsewhere for poor people to fill the gap.

[RBM]

Personally speaking .............

On top of gross incompetence, "can-kicking" and blatant self-interest-preservation within Euroland, we now see how badly the Greek PM (and his Government?) has deceived those who were prepared to help to get his lousy show out of a hole ....... a lousy show resulting from years of persistent tax-evasion, lying to get into the Euro in the first place and a (politically motivated) bloated public sector, where the minimum pay exceeds the average pay in most countries in our part of the world. I understand the Greek Elite are currently looking at London properties in their droves ......... and at the same time aiming to secure mooring berths for their yachts on the South English coastline. All with the aim of perpetuating a life with no taxes to pay.

I believe the Chinese PM would be spot on to say "look after yourselves Euroland" - something which they patently cannot do. Euroland may well bring the global crash into 2011 if the Greek PM wins his deceptive game and secures a referendum. I hope the Greeks feel ashamed of their country's leader today and Europeans realise how pathetically incapable their unelected Brussels based leaders are ...... and I also hope the Chinese applaud their PM when he tells those same self-preservation-driven Eurocrats to shove it. I'm 100% with corydorus on this - why should millions of Chinese continue a life of hardship while at the same time subsidising continued Euroland incompetence?? - it would be throwing good money after bad.

Wanted to get that off my chest. I need a rest now.

[Thriftville]

Hey buddies!

Actually I felt the same about the way Europe manage their finance. It's sounds similar to the chinese saying that "wealth cannot pass more than 3 generations". Time for Europe to cut back on their luxury lifestyle...

I feel that China's plan to support EU may actually help China in the long run. Because I believe that this kinda deal will involve a lot of hidden clauses. Look at the Spain & Argentina's national basketball team, they are wearing Li Ning. China may benefit in term of technology transfer and a bigger potential market for their goods.

But after all, I still hope that EU collapse. So I can buy cheap stocks! Hee hee

[RBM]

.......... and indeed now PM Papandreou's cabinet QUOTE unanimously supports UNQUOTE their leader's dishonesty. Hang your head in shame Greece. What a shambolic disgrace. I hope some other Euroland countries, particularly the poorer ones, now also invoke referenda to approve the whole package, with their referenda dates after the Greek one!