The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[hongonn]

Hoot!!! Relax lar... It is just money.

Hehe it is not just money, the money buys food for me It is easier say than done. Who knows what will happen? Will it be a depression? Has anyone experience great depression before? How to be so confident?

This only mean u have no exit stregrey and just don use e money meant for food to buy stocks. just kidding!
I still have 30% cash. My house and car is fully paid.
I have a few business and still working a full time job trying to earn more money to buy stocks.
I am only 32.
Why should i be depress?

Hi WolfT,

What am i trying to say is one must conserve some cash to prepare for the worst, who knows how long and how bad this downturn going to be.

In fact you don't have to reveal your finance status to me. But you do can reveal it to Sunday times me and my money series :p Just kidding.

Ya, from what you said, i do believe you shouldn't be bothered by any downturn. Just hoot

[weijian]

I am pretty excited abt this coming recession... My retirement depends on it! Hoot!!!

i don't understand...it seems nobody thinks NOW is the time to put your money to work. there's definitely lots of fear right now.

brokers are downgrading and telling you to sell, ppl are saying more downside to come, ppl telling you to stay at the sidelines.

besides the analyst (Which actually we shdnt be listening to them in the first place because talk is cheap), i reckon we can use wolfT as an indicator to know when to start buying... hehe..When wolfT starts getting fearful, i guess it is time to start buying..

The S&P 500 VIX (fear index is doing at betwen 30-50 over last 2-3weeks only. To put into perspective, VIX spiked to ~80 during GFC2008. In addition, currently we are still seeing quite a good volume of company/director/insider buybacks (although i feel it has deccelerated a little recently) IMHO, such buybacks are very common in corrections but they will disappear in a crash because at that time, even the insiders are scared.

Have u experienced the GFC of 2008? How did u fare? If u had experience, u might want to draw onto your experience/emotions during that time, n get a better grip of ur psychological well being.. Being emotionally stable and hence distancing yourself from the crowd occasionally is critical.

finally, do not forget that the stock market is forward looking. If i did not remember wrongly, historically there is ~3-6mths gap lag between stock market's bottom and the start of a recession/depression.

[violinist]

I remember it started with just 1 email from Goldman Sach...

[Musicwhiz]

Have u experienced the GFC of 2008? How did u fare? If u had experience, u might want to draw onto your experience/emotions during that time, n get a better grip of ur psychological well being.. Being emotionally stable and hence distancing yourself from the crowd occasionally is critical.

finally, do not forget that the stock market is forward looking. If i did not remember wrongly, historically there is ~3-6mths gap lag between stock market's bottom and the start of a recession/depression.

There are quite a number of experienced forumers here who have weathered the GFC and they probably can share their experiences here. Off-hand I can think of probably dydx and d.o.g. as well as a few others, so hopefully they can come out to share their stories and experiences.

For myself, it's more of a "lucky break" that I managed to survive as I entered the crisis back then owning companies with heavy leverage (e.g. Ezra, Swiber, China Fishery) and was simply lucky to escape unscathed. Assuming that this turns out to be another big crisis, I hope to avoid the same mistakes again.

As for emotions during the bear market, it's really hard to describe but generally it's depressing if you do not have the stomach to watch your holdings decline 50-60%. But assuming you can stomach it and you have constant cash on hand, do continue to invest in well-run companies.

The stock market is generally 6-9 months ahead of the real economy. This is why so many analysts get it "wrong" - they only forecast using historical data which tells you what happened in the past, but cannot make an accurate assessment of what may occur in the future.

[WolfT]

The lower it(stocks) drop, the more exciting it gets for me...ok,maybe only me!
I really hope all the blue chips crash..eg,capitaland $1 ,DBS $3 etc, rotary 10ct, wing tai 20ct. Hoot!
The money is always there but u must know where to look for it!
I don read/trust analyst report.I rather spend time looking for money.
If u don trust the stock mkt, don play.
Damm difficult to reply using Iphone...that why I don bother to reply,pls forgive me and my rant!

[Behappyalways]

The lower it(stocks) drop, the more exciting it gets for me...ok,maybe only me!
I really hope all the blue chips crash.

The thing about karma, It always comes around and bite you when you least expected. (Quote from WolfT)


US: S&P500 breaks support - range ends. Next support at 1040 - 1025.
http://www.connect.facebook.com/photo.ph...e=1&ref=nf


To fix the economy, first fix the housing market
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/0...=SF_F_Lead


Can we afford to heap bank losses on creditors?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15160413



Eurozone problems hit U.S. bank shares
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/04/busine...hpt=hp_bn1

[WolfT]

Ha.. Ya must keep track of my evil side...

[mrEngineer]

yesterday I just overheard a conversation that his stocks are stuck and could not sell to realized loss and needed to borrow $ to survive the next few months. hmm.. nonetheless we have not seen the bottom yet or even a fake rally.

[Musicwhiz]

yesterday I just overheard a conversation that his stocks are stuck and could not sell to realized loss and needed to borrow $ to survive the next few months. hmm.. nonetheless we have not seen the bottom yet or even a fake rally.

The strange aspect of the whole crash is that just three months ago, analysts were still bullish on prospects and upgrading their target prices for the companies they cover.

Now what you can observe is analysts scrambling to downgrade all their targets, yet recommending a "BUY". They are usually behind the curve.

The next step, should it occur, would be for analysts to start recommending "SELL" or "HOLD". That's when valuations are pretty much bottoming.

[corydorus]

I actually like to comment poems did a slightly above job to asking clients to move to cash and no new positions since last week.