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(06-09-2016, 08:06 PM)ksir Wrote: Found this interesting interview with Swiber exCEO (CEO then):
http://www.sgx.com/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_e...s-20150626
Try to forget the hindsight bias and see if you can tell what's wrong?! Honestly without looking at numbers (BS), I can't tell.
Interviews are meant to convey a sense of the person and maybe the corporate culture. They are not meant to argue for or against the investment merits of a company. Anyone who invested without a thorough understanding of the numbers fully deserved to lose their money.
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(07-09-2016, 01:31 PM)d.o.g. Wrote: (06-09-2016, 08:06 PM)ksir Wrote: Found this interesting interview with Swiber exCEO (CEO then):
http://www.sgx.com/wps/wcm/connect/sgx_e...s-20150626
Try to forget the hindsight bias and see if you can tell what's wrong?! Honestly without looking at numbers (BS), I can't tell.
Interviews are meant to convey a sense of the person and maybe the corporate culture. They are not meant to argue for or against the investment merits of a company. Anyone who invested without a thorough understanding of the numbers fully deserved to lose their money.
I concur with the quantitative basis, but qualitatively it is rather flawless.
Usually I can feel something is wrong qualitatively as well (from the interviews, agm q&a, etc).
I guess it is a timely reminder of Graham Dodds' statement that an investment operation must be justified on both qualitative and quantitative basis.
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
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07-09-2016, 07:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2016, 09:54 PM by specuvestor.)
IPeople can be sincerely wrong. It is possible to err on judgement, not on principle. Usually principle is the marathon runner but in some cases judgement can be so devastating the marathon ends.
But I do agree that understanding the management's style, philosophy, ethos and values plays a big part in knowing how they will treat their business and OPMI.
NB of course one interview report is just part of the homework. Speaking to them is still best; and observing what they say vs what they do
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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For better or worse, when the Management is also the major owner of the company, it does help to align the interest. Best if the ownership is substantial portion of his/her net worth. But unfortunately it is hard to find out or is it?
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
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I have similar doubt. What is the motivation for creditors to support the proposal? I reckon, creditors are favoring capital recovery, than company survival, unlike shareholders. What do you think?
(not vested)
Swiber IJMs propose haircut of over US$140m
08 Sep 2016 09:00
By Tan Hwee Hwee
SWIBER group's interim judicial managers (IJMs) are said to have tabled a proposal in which trade creditors will take a substantial haircut in excess of US$140 million in support of reversing negative margins and cash flows from secured projects.
Sources said the IJMs, in their report presented to the High Court last Friday, painted a scenario in which net cash flow from significant projects on Swiber group's order book can turn positive but on condition that suppliers and subcontractors knock off US$143 million owed by the group.
Under the cash flow restructuring tabled by the IJMs, about US$11 million will be allocated to accounts payable to trade creditors compared to over US$154 million if business were to carry on as usual.
This would see net cash from current projects reversing from an outflow of nearly US$130 million to an inflow of US$12.2 million.
The Business Times understands however, the IJM report did not address a question tied to this proposal: what benefit could trade creditors derive in exchange for taking on such a substantial haircut?
...
Source: Business Times
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Just wonder who wish to continue to supply them services and raw materials .
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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(08-09-2016, 09:31 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: I have similar doubt. What is the motivation for creditors to support the proposal? I reckon, creditors are favoring capital recovery, than company survival, unlike shareholders. What do you think?
(not vested)
Swiber IJMs propose haircut of over US$140m
08 Sep 2016 09:00
By Tan Hwee Hwee
SWIBER group's interim judicial managers (IJMs) are said to have tabled a proposal in which trade creditors will take a substantial haircut in excess of US$140 million in support of reversing negative margins and cash flows from secured projects.
Sources said the IJMs, in their report presented to the High Court last Friday, painted a scenario in which net cash flow from significant projects on Swiber group's order book can turn positive but on condition that suppliers and subcontractors knock off US$143 million owed by the group.
Under the cash flow restructuring tabled by the IJMs, about US$11 million will be allocated to accounts payable to trade creditors compared to over US$154 million if business were to carry on as usual.
This would see net cash from current projects reversing from an outflow of nearly US$130 million to an inflow of US$12.2 million.
The Business Times understands however, the IJM report did not address a question tied to this proposal: what benefit could trade creditors derive in exchange for taking on such a substantial haircut?
...
Source: Business Times Turning cashflow positive by not paying the full amount due to trade creditor is an ingenious proposal by the IJM. A "new business model" for all cash strapped companies to adopt.
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Maybe they will zero out all shareholders stake in the company. And the creditors own the company after.
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08-09-2016, 09:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2016, 09:35 PM by CityFarmer.)
(08-09-2016, 09:05 PM)corydorus Wrote: Maybe they will zero out all shareholders stake in the company. And the creditors own the company after.
Debt-to-equity swap, as signed by Oceanus with its creditors? DBS, as the biggest creditor (? or one of the biggest?), might not like the idea... 
Oceanus signs deal with creditors to convert debt balance into equity
08 Sep 2016 19:36
By Lee Meixian
SEAFOOD supply chain manager Oceanus Group said on Thursday it has signed a binding term sheet with two of three of its key creditors for a proposed debt restructuring, which may greatly reduce Oceanus's total outstanding debt balance.
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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(08-09-2016, 09:34 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: (08-09-2016, 09:05 PM)corydorus Wrote: Maybe they will zero out all shareholders stake in the company. And the creditors own the company after.
Debt-to-equity swap, as signed by Oceanus with its creditors? DBS, as the biggest creditor (? or one of the biggest?), might not like the idea...
Oceanus signs deal with creditors to convert debt balance into equity
08 Sep 2016 19:36
By Lee Meixian
SEAFOOD supply chain manager Oceanus Group said on Thursday it has signed a binding term sheet with two of three of its key creditors for a proposed debt restructuring, which may greatly reduce Oceanus's total outstanding debt balance.
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News
If I remember correctly, earlier report which DBS said quite large amount of the money is tied to project completion and could be pay back in cash. The bridging loan is not secured I believe.
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