Buy and hold - but not for too long

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#1
Not sure why the article says "Buy and Hold is Dead". I've bought and held, for example, Boustead for the last 5 years and it is still giving excellent returns. I think the focus here should be on the business of the company, coupled with reading and analyzing the financial statements. In short, invest in value and with a margin of safety! (I do NOT agree with the article, just posting it for discussion).

The Straits Times
Aug 21, 2011
Buy and hold - but not for too long


By Aaron Low

If there is one thing that the huge market swings of the past two years have taught investors, it is that the buy and hold strategy is no longer the best way to approach investing.

The idea that if you buy and hold for the long term, you can make money from a stock market that will rise over time has been debunked by financial analysts.

'Buy and hold is dead,' says independent financial adviser Leong Sze Hian.

He notes that over the past 10 years, the world has seen three recessions and a near stock market collapse.

What this means is that if you had invested in the stock market in 2001 and held on to your investments till now, it is most unlikely that you would have made any money, he says.

Take the MSCI World as an example. A decade ago, the MSCI World, which tracks stock markets across the world, was at 1,152 points.

The previous Friday, it was 1,169, or just 1.4 per cent higher than what it was some 10 years ago. Subtract inflation and the real rate of return, or loss in this case, is about a negative 28 per cent.

But that does not mean that for the retail investor, there is no good way to make money.

While buy and hold is no longer a valid strategy, analysts say that one should still stay invested.

With a little strategising, even retail investors can get ahead.

For one thing, the basic rule of diversification will go a long way in managing risk and keeping returns high, says Mr Leong.

He notes that a simple 40 per cent equity, 40 per cent bonds, and 20 per cent commodities approach is one good way of spreading risk in the market.

'Investors should also rebalance their portfolio once every three months, taking in changes in values of the various investments and tweaking when necessary,' he says.

For instance, if equities have outperformed commodities and tilted the portfolio value to 50 per cent equities, 40 per cent bonds and 10 per cent commodities, selling down the equities and putting the extra cash into commodities would be the right thing to do.

Apart from diversification, it also pays to be sensitive to market and economic conditions, says Mr Albert Lam, investment director at IFF Financial Advisers.

He points out that historically, every four to six years the market will undergo a major fall, due to factors other than valuations of shares.

'These could be external shocks, like a confidence crisis or something related to politics. What is important is to look at the risk-reward ratio,' he says.

A good example of this was when the US Congress was recently locked in a heated debate over whether to raise the US government debt ceiling.

In this case, says Mr Lam, the risk clearly outweighed the reward.

'If the debt ceiling hadn't been raised, the loss would be enormous. The reward? A jump back to normal market levels,' he says.

'So I would take some risk off and wait to see if the debt ceiling was raised before going back in.'

Another way to approach investing in these volatile markets is to simply set a target in the kind of returns you want and the time frame you want to be invested in, says OCBC Bank's head of content and research for wealth management for Singapore, Mr Vasu Menon.

He is still of the opinion that buying and holding works, but for shorter time frames.

So instead of 20 years, a shorter time frame of, say, three to five years will work better.

At the same time, if an investor has set a target and achieved it, and even if the time horizon is not up yet, he recommends cashing in instead of holding and hoping for a bigger return.

'After you sell, you can always re-evaluate before buying back in again,' he says.

But not all financial advisers are against buying and holding, especially since most retail investors are unable to time the market perfectly or compete effectively with institutional investors.

Mr Brian Tan, vice-president at ipac financial planning, says that the key to a good buy and hold strategy is buying quality.

'There is a lot of short-term speculation in the market. So retail investors' biggest advantage is time,' he says.

He recommends investing in a good-quality company with strong potential over the long term of 30 to 40 years.

For the current volatile market, he suggests buying slowly, in small batches.

'Current valuations do seem cheap enough to justify putting money into the market over time,' he added.
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
(21-08-2011, 08:29 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: Not sure why the article says "Buy and Hold is Dead". I've bought and held, for example, Boustead for the last 5 years and it is still giving excellent returns. I think the focus here should be on the business of the company, coupled with reading and analyzing the financial statements. In short, invest in value and with a margin of safety! (I do NOT agree with the article, just posting it for discussion).

One of the source of commission for the Financial Advisors comes from "helping" their clients "rebalance" their stocks portfolio on a regular basis. It'd be hard to find many Financial Advisors who're willing to forego their own short term interest for such regular source of income by advising their clients to just buy-and-hold! Big Grin
Luck & Fortune Favours those who are Prepared & Decisive when Opportunity Knocks
------------ 知己知彼 ,百战不殆 ;不知彼 ,不知己 ,每战必殆 ------------
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#3
Quote:Take the MSCI World as an example. A decade ago, the MSCI World, which tracks stock markets across the world, was at 1,152 points.

The previous Friday, it was 1,169, or just 1.4 per cent higher than what it was some 10 years ago. Subtract inflation and the real rate of return, or loss in this case, is about a negative 28 per cent.

Dividend???
Besides, taking just a mere world index as an example is too simplistic.
Why don't they take Berkshire Hathaway, ten years ago the share price is around US$70000, now is $102600.
Absolute return is 46.5% despite the stock market decline. (but only true for American Big Grin)



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#4
I believe that one of the causes of the "crashes" that we have seen in the last decade or so is that many investors now have far too short a time horizon, i.e. to realise the benefits of their investments. If there was more realism and less get-rich-quick-greed we would have less market volatility. For an oldie like me, 5 to 10 years is the time horizon I'm looking at. I've several holdings which I've had for over 15 years. I hold shares in Kingsmen, BBR, Q & M Dental etc. not for gain tomorrow but rather for gain over the years. Am I wierd??

I fully agree with KopiKat that "advisors" do not make huge sums from people like me - those I have met tend to promote "churn" or a "re-balancing" in my holdings. I'm simply not interested.

Have a nice weekend.
RBM, Retired Botanic MatSalleh
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#5
(21-08-2011, 09:58 AM)KopiKat Wrote:
(21-08-2011, 08:29 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: Not sure why the article says "Buy and Hold is Dead". I've bought and held, for example, Boustead for the last 5 years and it is still giving excellent returns. I think the focus here should be on the business of the company, coupled with reading and analyzing the financial statements. In short, invest in value and with a margin of safety! (I do NOT agree with the article, just posting it for discussion).

One of the source of commission for the Financial Advisors comes from "helping" their clients "rebalance" their stocks portfolio on a regular basis. It'd be hard to find many Financial Advisors who're willing to forego their own short term interest for such regular source of income by advising their clients to just buy-and-hold! Big Grin

"Buy and Hold is Dead" says the financial adviser

So if you buy and hold the financial adviser gets nothing

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#6
This is one of those "financial truths" which the newspaper likes to oversimplify.

Buy and hold works ONLY if you take into account the valuation of the company. If you have bought companies like Cisco, Microsoft etc during the technology bubble, you would still be in the red ten years on because you ignored the ridiculous 20 - 30x PE ratios that these companies commanded.

On the other hand, BAH has worked extremely well for value funds which take into account that a good company is a good investment only if you pay a fair price.

4 most dangerous words of investment? - Its different this time.
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#7
there are lots of opponents of buy-and-hold strategy, and they will use selective historical data to substantiate their point. What is often missing is the fact that you need to apply common sense even on a buy-and-hold strategy. Obviously if one buys during the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000, or buys some fraudulent S-chips, why would it be surprising if the person holds for 10 yrs and still lose money?


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#8
I love articles of these kind which cause more trading and those that encourage alternatives and 'buying insurance'.
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#9
(21-08-2011, 03:42 PM)juno.tay Wrote: This is one of those "financial truths" which the newspaper likes to oversimplify.

Buy and hold works ONLY if you take into account the valuation of the company. If you have bought companies like Cisco, Microsoft etc during the technology bubble, you would still be in the red ten years on because you ignored the ridiculous 20 - 30x PE ratios that these companies commanded.

On the other hand, BAH has worked extremely well for value funds which take into account that a good company is a good investment only if you pay a fair price.

4 most dangerous words of investment? - Its different this time.

Is there really such a thing as Buy and Hold?
Hold for how long?
Not too long?
How long is not too long?

So it comes to when to buy
You probably need a crystal ball to find an answer

Maybe what to buy
Probably
Or is it?

At the end of the day it is a question of what you want
Unless you are a headless chicken
Most would agree to get more than what pittance the banks offer

One need not go far for such a simple need
Take e.g. Singtel
At current price it offers around 5% yield
Certainly the risk is there. Any stock for that matter
Can we say there is a margin of safety at this level

What strategy?
Alternatively you can wait for the price to drop to a 6% yield

Now to the question of 'hold how long'
Until the yield drops to 4%
Or 3%

This time is different?
No!
Every time is different
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#10
A saw to a chef is useless; same goes to a cleaver to a carpenter.

But the right tool for the right job - presto!
Just google singapore man of leisure
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