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ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
21-05-2016, 05:57 PM, (This post was last modified: 21-05-2016, 06:15 PM by BlueKelah.)
Post: #171
RE: ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
(21-05-2016, 02:12 PM)stam Wrote: Near 52-weeks low, is this ICBC still worth a buy?

If you wanna buy just be prepared for a steep drop down. China's big banks NPLs are rising fast Big Grin Hence the recent move to do debt to equity swaps which is just repackaging the problem LOL..

However they will need to maintain their place as a reserve currency, so no matter what happens Beijing will bailout their banks as needed, just like the FED did during GFC.

China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/27/imf-says-...blems.html
"I love Taiwan"

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21-05-2016, 06:59 PM,
Post: #172
RE: ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
(21-05-2016, 05:57 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:
(21-05-2016, 02:12 PM)stam Wrote: Near 52-weeks low, is this ICBC still worth a buy?

If you wanna buy just be prepared for a steep drop down. China's big banks NPLs are rising fast Big Grin Hence the recent move to do debt to equity swaps which is just repackaging the problem LOL..

However they will need to maintain their place as a reserve currency, so no matter what happens Beijing will bailout their banks as needed, just like the FED did during GFC.

China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/27/imf-says-...blems.html

Yes, NPLs are rising, but the talk about the loans bubble bursting has been going on for several years. Nothing has happened on a big scale thus far.
I owned ICBC about 2 yrs ago.
The valuation is dirt cheap as everyone is afraid of the NPL ratio. True enough, it has been rising steadily, but this information is already baked into the share price. It's a known known. 
How it continues from here, is a known unknown. Nobody knows how it'd turn out, but everyone knows the problem is there.

The main difficulty i had, was that even the financials were not 100% trustworthy. Not sure how much of this official data is true.



https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/

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21-05-2016, 07:34 PM, (This post was last modified: 21-05-2016, 07:35 PM by shadow_walker.)
Post: #173
RE: ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
This was part of an insightful speech made recently by Xiang SongZuo, former chief economist at Agricultural Bank of China (he only left a few months back). He stated that 2% NPL is way understating the bad debt situation as it did not include restructured loans. His statement is significant given his former position at one of the big 4.

Given the high leveraged business model of a bank, a few % increase in NPL can easily wipe out the equity base. That say, the big 4 are probably too big to fail for China.

各位都知道,我们现在全部商业银行体系的不良贷款在今年一季度都突破了2%,但是我可以告诉各位,2%是大大低估了银行的不良贷款。很多都是通过调胀,通过涨息,通过所谓的重组,把不良贷款暂时掩盖住了。光86家钢铁企业,负债总额3.3万亿,其中绝大部分都是银行贷款,很多钢铁企业动辄就是几百亿,甚至上千亿,几千亿。我想这种风险时间关系我不展开去说,很多的例子,总有一天大家要承担。很不幸的是这种风险的承担,最终可能又是由中国的老百姓来承担,那不就是通胀吗?所以提出债转股的时候好像媒体采访我要我写文章,我是非常明确的反对什么债转股?我说一个公司,一个企业,他借钱的时候不能按时还本付息,现在银行转过来变成他的股东,他能够给银行分红吗?玩这种把戏,很欣慰的这一次人民日报的权威人士也等于是否定了债转股,僵尸企业该退出的就得退出,该破产的就得破产,这种痛苦今天不想承担未来的痛苦只会更大。当有一天我们银行的资本被不良贷款,被坏账全部吃掉的时候怎么办?

http://money.163.com/16/0517/19/BN9QK3HQ00252G50.html

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24-05-2016, 10:35 AM,
Post: #174
RE: ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
The understated NPL of China bank, is more likely due to different norm applied by China banking sector, vs the rest of the world. It is less likely on trustworthiness, IMO.

The "normalized" NPL ratio, is a biggest puzzle for China bank investment. I have read many articles on the matter. Most "Western" articles "estimated" as about 10%. I am more inclined to believe the "normalized" NPL ratio should be around 5% (in 2014), which is also the figure estimated by recent PwC HK. (I have lost the link).

One supplementary support, are the Special Mention/NPL published in AR, which is likely very close to the "normalized" NPL ratio, IMO.

Will the 5% NPL ratio, wipe out the equity base? I am more optimistic on the matter. Of course, the China banks have more challenges ahead, which include the impact(s) from financial liberalization in China, and higher regulatory cost.

(not vested in China banks, but monitoring)
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡

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14-11-2017, 02:06 PM,
Post: #175
RE: ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)
ICBC launches robo-adviser service for wealth-management products
The nation’s largest bank by assets is first of China’s ‘big four’ lenders to offer automated advice and product service

Maggie Zhang
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 14 November, 2017, 8:30am
UPDATED : Tuesday, 14 November, 2017, 8:30am

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has applied the latest artificial intelligence-led technology to its wealth-management operations, reflecting just how the country’s big banks are now fighting hard to gain an edge over rivals in the sector.

Its newly launched “robo-adviser” service will see computer programmes dish out investment advice to retail investors over its mobile banking platform, becoming the first among the nation’s “big-four” state-owned lenders to unlock the potential of the hot new service being adopted rapidly by the industry, worldwide.

The value of China’s total robo-adviser services, including those offered by banks, assets managers and fintech companies, is expected to top 5.22 trillion yuan (US$783 billion) by 2020, according to data from consultancy Analysys.

More details in http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/a...t-products
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.

http://www.valuebuddies.com
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