Apple Inc.

[Bibi]

It also depends on what is loaded in the laptop and the specs of the laptop. Also, if too many programs are running in the background, it will take a longer time to shut down. For the phones, we also have to look at the processor. Whether it's dual or quad core. The OS itself doesn't say much about performance.

ok fair enough. My Mac OS can be dual boot to WinXP. Freshly installed with no anti-virus and other programs which hog up resources. Starting OpenOffice is faster in Mac OS, Booting and shuting down is faster in Mac OS, heat generated when using WinXP is more.

Have you experience any UNIX based OS before? Linux?

[serjing]

I have noticed the trend you all have been talking about. But that is just in Singapore - it is hard to know what is happening in other countries. I rely on statistics such as surveys done by corporations who are going to incorporate Apple's computers into their IT systems, companeis who are going to deploy iPads. A few days back, I read an article saying Delta Airlines in the USA deployed 4500 iPads in their restaurants.

It is logical, but dangerous to use what is happening in Singapore as an easy extrapolation into what is happening elsewhere in the world. Apple's a global company and Singapore makes up a very samll percentage of its sales.

I am rather into behavioural finance and one of the key issues involved here is representatiiveness - we take what is happening near us and extrapolate the events and think that is what is happening in the other corners of the globe.

Just my 2 cents

Cheers,
Ser Jing

[dzwm87]

It is logical, but dangerous to use what is happening in Singapore as an easy extrapolation into what is happening elsewhere in the world. Apple's a global company and Singapore makes up a very samll percentage of its sales.

Yes, you're right. I missed out the assumption of extrapolation bias.

That's why it's hard to say if Samsung is capable of taking over Apple's dominance. One thing to be certain, competition is increasing for smartphones. This is especially true when you see how the tech companies have to resort to patent lawsuit and imposing ban on their product sales.

[corydorus]

Apple product segments are generally not in Commercial Business. Consumer (Home Users) PC market share through their Mac machine is less than 5% of world wide shipment volume if i remember correctly. All Segments Top PC Volume is still HP. Lenova is closing behind.

The key however is still margins in SmartPhone and Tablet space. Apple ability to tap on Apps profit pulls it well ahead of others.

[yeokiwi]

It also depends on what is loaded in the laptop and the specs of the laptop. Also, if too many programs are running in the background, it will take a longer time to shut down. For the phones, we also have to look at the processor. Whether it's dual or quad core. The OS itself doesn't say much about performance.

Apple is using a tightly coupled approach to develop the apple products. The hardware and OS are designed together to derive maximum performance from the hardware and reduce the software bugs.

Microsoft and the rest of the world are designing their products using a loosely coupled approach. Using this approach, the OS is able to work with many different processors, memories, flashes and IO devices.

The latter approach will make many hardwares compatible with the OS but the price of doing it is that there will be more redundant codes, unneccesary software drivers, suboptimal optimization and inherently, more software bugs.

In short, given the same hardware specifications, Apple is going to come out ahead. Apple can also adopt a lower end hardware and yet achieve similar performance than its competitors' products.

Even for mobile apps development, it is easier to develop apple's apps than Android's apps since the number of apples' mobile devices are limited(2g, 3g, 3gs, 4, 4s...) while there are so many different kind of android mobile devices with different spec.

That may be the reason that microsoft is forced to design its own tablet.

[serjing]

I just discovered a glaring error in my response to Musicwhiz. Apple has yet to sign up with China Mobile, which has 688 million subscribers to its carrier network. I made a mistake, thinking Apple did sign up. Regardless, if they do (probably not going to happen anytime too soon), it's still a positive catalyst. In the mean-time, I'm in wait-and-see mode.

Cheers,
Ser Jing

[CityFarmer]

I just discovered a glaring error in my response to Musicwhiz. Apple has yet to sign up with China Mobile, which has 688 million subscribers to its carrier network. I made a mistake, thinking Apple did sign up. Regardless, if they do (probably not going to happen anytime too soon), it's still a positive catalyst. In the mean-time, I'm in wait-and-see mode.

Cheers,
Ser Jing

One of the reason for Apple to pay $60 million to settle a two-year-old legal dispute with Proview International Holdings Ltd. regarding the iPad trademark in China, is to ensure its smooth venture into China.

So venture into China is done deal

[Musicwhiz]

I just discovered a glaring error in my response to Musicwhiz. Apple has yet to sign up with China Mobile, which has 688 million subscribers to its carrier network. I made a mistake, thinking Apple did sign up. Regardless, if they do (probably not going to happen anytime too soon), it's still a positive catalyst. In the mean-time, I'm in wait-and-see mode.

Cheers,
Ser Jing

Hi Ser Jing,

Thanks for the detailed response - nice to read a well thought-through response, and frankly if I had more time to compile the numbers I would engage you further on Apple Inc. What I typed was just based on my basic understanding of Apple, cursory observations and anecdotal evidence. Of course, as people in this thread have mentioned, it may just be extrapolation bias for me to see friends/colleagues switching to Samsung. Also as mentioned by some others, the rise of Windows Phone and Android technology cannot be underestimated.

To cut a long story short, I would think that for a TTM PER of 16x, Apple would seem fairly valued. For comps, Google and Amazon are less of a phone company, and more of advertizing (their revenues I mean); and I am surprised Amazon is trading at 300x! Could it be a blip in earnings or some exceptional item which has depressed the earnings? Seems a little too "amaz-ing" (mind the pun).

Technically, Apple should be compared to its closest competitor in the phone cum tablet space, and that would be South Korea's Samsung. Samsung is trading at a PER of 11x - lower than Apple; and it is also growing market share and sales rapidly in the SEA region, including (I believe) China. While it is impossible to get accurate market share numbers unless one gets a report from Datamonitor or Euromonitor (which costs a bomb), I think one can probably infer from their respective segmental breakdowns on their potential in each country.

You said Apple provides just breakdown by continent, does Samsung provide that info as well? Would be good to compare Samsung and Apple on a same currency level (convert KRW to USD) and see the gains in revenues and net profit for both players over the last 3-4 years. Then we can see if the growth trajectory has been up and up, or bumpy.

Next step is we should coincide this with the release of new products from each company. Normally, I would anticipate a spike in sales once a new product is launched; so it would be good if one could map the revenues to their respective new product launches.

After all that's been said and done, why wouldn't Samsung be a better and more compelling buy than Apple, since it trades at a lower valuation multiple and is also targetting the SEA and China market?

[thleong]

I just discovered a glaring error in my response to Musicwhiz. Apple has yet to sign up with China Mobile, which has 688 million subscribers to its carrier network. I made a mistake, thinking Apple did sign up. Regardless, if they do (probably not going to happen anytime too soon), it's still a positive catalyst. In the mean-time, I'm in wait-and-see mode.

Cheers,
Ser Jing

China Mobile uses TD-SCDMA for their 3G. This is totally different than 3G in Singapore which is WCDMA + HSPA.
Unless Iphone supports TD-SCDMA, they could not partner China Mobile.

[KopiKat]

After all that's been said and done, why wouldn't Samsung be a better and more compelling buy than Apple, since it trades at a lower valuation multiple and is also targetting the SEA and China market?

Samsung has a much wider range of biz, fm Reuters,

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. principally engaged in the manufacture and marketing of consumer electronic products. The Company operates in two business divisions: end product division and component division. Its end product division manufactures digital media products, including digital televisions (TVs), monitors, printers, computers, air conditioners, refrigerators and others, and communication products, including mobile phones and network systems. Its component division manufactures semiconductors, including memories, storages and others, and liquid crystal display (LCD) products, including thin film transistor (TFT) LCDs and active-matrix organic light-emitting diodes (AMOLEDs) used for TVs, monitors, personal computers (PCs) and others. On April 1, 2012, it merged with SAMSUNG LED CO.,LTD., and spun-off its LCD business. On August 13, 2012, it acquired a 100% stake in its sub-subsidiary SEHF Korea from its overseas subsidiary SEHF.

Will have to strip out the relevant segment for comparison.