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(13-12-2012, 10:17 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (13-12-2012, 12:49 AM)Willow_Will Wrote: Hi folks,
I've been an SPH shareholder since 2005 (I can honestly tell you that the annual returns from holding this counter will never secure you a place in investing lore). There has been a gradual decline in earnings during recent years and I'm wondering if the current dividend yield (gross + special) is sustainable.
The current 24c dividend for FY12 already results in a payout ratio of >1.0. I conservatively assume that future dividends will exclude the special component, yielding a 16c annual gross dividend at a payout ratio of around 0.70 (which is already high). Given that SPH has a reputation of being an "income" counter with minimal prospect for growth, a substantial cut in the dividend will depress SPH's stock price. This will be a double whammy for SPH faithfuls.
We were discussing about this risk from Pg 41 of this thread. 
(12-12-2012, 03:20 PM)Ben Wrote: (12-12-2012, 10:46 AM)KopiKat Wrote: There's also this current market infatuation with Yield stocks... see how long this'll last... especially since the govt kept forecasting economic weakness going forward...
Ops! I am one of those who are infaturated with yield, and SPH at current price is yielding more than 5%, or close to 6%. That is good enough for me and my itchy fingers trigger a buy... maybe I am too kan cheong....nevermind, I am waiting for the 17c dividends to celebrate Christmas
I have nothing against buying and holding SPH for the yield. What the rest of us also 'die-hard' fans of SPH is doing is to try to squeeze out a little bit more returns from our beloved SPH....
(12-12-2012, 01:39 PM)Temperament Wrote: Quote:WolfT
]When too many people knows the trick... it won't work.
i also sold before XD... now waiting too!
My entry price is set at 3.80.
I think this is not a trick but a mini B/S strategy. It's really existed for a long time already. If you go to our NL, you can read investment books teaching about this strategy and some others. And if you monitor our local SGX daily, you can observe this strategy works most of the time for most of the stocks (especially high div paying stocks) if not every time for every stocks. And it seems to be International too.
Shalom.
Can recommend some of these books from NL so I can learn more "about this strategy and some others" ?  i am very sorry to say i only glanced through these books in our NL. If it's any help i remember it is the NL at Geyland EAST or WEST (i not sure E. or W. Anyway only one in Geylang. Quite near to the Hindu temple. My apology, again. i may want to look at these books again. i am not really a "short-term" trader.
Shalom.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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KopiKat expert already still want to read NL books?
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(13-12-2012, 01:21 PM)violinist Wrote: KopiKat expert already still want to read NL books? Don't be like that leh. WB is the most successful investor UTD but he still lose money in some of his investments. Nobody can be "All KNOWING" and says he has nothing to learn anymore. In that case he better leaves this World or he will die a slow death of boredom.
Shalom.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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(13-12-2012, 10:17 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (13-12-2012, 12:49 AM)Willow_Will Wrote: Hi folks,
I've been an SPH shareholder since 2005 (I can honestly tell you that the annual returns from holding this counter will never secure you a place in investing lore). There has been a gradual decline in earnings during recent years and I'm wondering if the current dividend yield (gross + special) is sustainable.
The current 24c dividend for FY12 already results in a payout ratio of >1.0. I conservatively assume that future dividends will exclude the special component, yielding a 16c annual gross dividend at a payout ratio of around 0.70 (which is already high). Given that SPH has a reputation of being an "income" counter with minimal prospect for growth, a substantial cut in the dividend will depress SPH's stock price. This will be a double whammy for SPH faithfuls.
We were discussing about this risk from Pg 41 of this thread. Oops! I missed that prior discussion. Apologies for re-stating this risk.
With respect to SBS Transit, if I remember correctly, the high special dividends paid were due to the company utilizing its section 44 balances? On hindsight, the appropriate gameplay then would be to "run road" once all the section 44 credits were exhausted. 
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Ha! Ha!
Section 44 is like the "ISA"(accumulated surplus cash don't know for what?) of companies. Joking only. In this case all of us who invested before this new " present tax system at source" enjoy the section 44 surplus cash as special dividends. i think someone can explain better. But if you google about company's dividends and taxes, you will get a full detail explanation from i think IRAS about the old tax system vs the current tax system on dividends. i had google once.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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01-01-2013, 07:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2013, 07:35 PM by AlphaQuant.)
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“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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I had read a article from the latest issue of The Edge, titled "Buffett comes to newspapers' rescue"
A summary:
Berkshire Hathaway has spend more than US$342 million on 80 newspapers. Terry Kroeger is chief of Buffett's newspapers empire. His strategy is to use a system, named as paywall for all his newspapers. Paywall is a system that prevents access to webpage content without a paid subscription.
SPH is following the same strategy with its webpage, including the zaobao website. Will this cause a decline on bottom line, at least in the short-term. IMO, it will.
Let's see the Q1 result less than a week later.
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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SPH Q1 result is out today.
Key points
- Operating revenue drop by -3.1% Q-to-Q. Newspaper and Magazine revenue drop -2.3% and Others drop -34.3% while Property remain stable with 2.9% growth
- Profit wise, Newspaper and Magazine is -6.6% drop, while Others drop by -324%, the Property is remain stable
As expected, the Newspaper and Magazine segment will continue to suffer from migration of paper to digital platform, and weaker economic in Singapore. The decline of profit is due to fall in advertisement and circulation revenue. It will take some time for SPH to settle down with the new platform.
The fall in profit for Others is mainly due to lower revenue from the exhibitions business, and increased investment in the online business.
Property profit remains stable which is expected. I don't expect a major growth before Seletar Mall fall-in around end 2014
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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