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12-12-2012, 01:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2012, 01:45 PM by Temperament.)
Quote:WolfT
]When too many people knows the trick... it won't work.
i also sold before XD... now waiting too!
My entry price is set at 3.80.
I think this is not a trick but a mini B/S strategy. It's really existed for a long time already. If you go to our NL, you can read investment books teaching about this strategy and some others. And if you monitor our local SGX daily, you can observe this strategy works most of the time for most of the stocks (especially high div paying stocks) if not every time for every stocks. And it seems to be International too.
Shalom.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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(12-12-2012, 01:39 PM)Temperament Wrote: Quote:WolfT
]When too many people knows the trick... it won't work.
i also sold before XD... now waiting too!
My entry price is set at 3.80.
I think this is not a trick but a mini B/S strategy. It's really existed for a long time already. If you go to our NL, you can read investment books teaching about this strategy and some others. And if you monitor our local SGX daily, you can observe this strategy works most of the time for most of the stocks (especially high div paying stocks) if not every time for every stocks. And it seems to be International too.
Shalom.
Yeah it is not so much of a trick. You have to bear in mind that there are a lot of investors who are short term and do not believe in holding stocks for the long run. The next big dividend payout for SPH will be Dec 2013, and from now until then, there is likely to be limited capital gains from holding a defensive stock. From the perspecitve of a trader or short-term investor, this is a very unattractive proposition, because they thrive on volatility. What I am guessing most speculators would do is to buy it up a couple of weeks prior to XD, and ride the uptrend, and dump after it goes XD.
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12-12-2012, 02:47 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2012, 02:54 PM by WolfT.)
ok, maybe i shouldn't use 'trick' , sound sneaky! Ha...
Sph should not do a share buyback and artificially support the price.
It should fall back after their ammo used up.
What to do? small time retail investor like us can only feed after the big fish finished their meal.
The thing about karma, It always comes around and bite you when you least expected.
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(12-12-2012, 10:46 AM)KopiKat Wrote: There's also this current market infatuation with Yield stocks... see how long this'll last... especially since the govt kept forecasting economic weakness going forward... 
Ops! I am one of those who are infaturated with yield, and SPH at current price is yielding more than 5%, or close to 6%. That is good enough for me and my itchy fingers trigger a buy...  maybe I am too kan cheong....nevermind, I am waiting for the 17c dividends to celebrate Christmas
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SPH continue to do share-buy-back 400 lots at price of $3.99 - $4.00.
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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Hi folks,
I've been an SPH shareholder since 2005 (I can honestly tell you that the annual returns from holding this counter will never secure you a place in investing lore). There has been a gradual decline in earnings during recent years and I'm wondering if the current dividend yield (gross + special) is sustainable.
The current 24c dividend for FY12 already results in a payout ratio of >1.0. I conservatively assume that future dividends will exclude the special component, yielding a 16c annual gross dividend at a payout ratio of around 0.70 (which is already high). Given that SPH has a reputation of being an "income" counter with minimal prospect for growth, a substantial cut in the dividend will depress SPH's stock price. This will be a double whammy for SPH faithfuls.
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if they cut the div below 20 cent i think the shareholders will revolt haha.
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SPH may cut their special dividend in future if earnings could not keep up. So are all companies that pay a dividend or "special dividend". Can anyone tell me which companies have done so in the past? Just try not to be caught "off-guard". Actually if you are caught "off-guard", the special dividend cut is not so scary. What's so scary is the Market will adjust down the "share price" in order to "track" dividend yield as close as possible before the special dividend cut. In this way Market will still try to classified SPH as an "Income Stock". No?
It's really quite scary as you will most probably lose some of your invested capital if you are caught off-guard. Nobody like to be caught off-guard in any situation besides SPH. But how? Anyone like to tell us? 
Shalom.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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(13-12-2012, 12:49 AM)Willow_Will Wrote: Hi folks,
I've been an SPH shareholder since 2005 (I can honestly tell you that the annual returns from holding this counter will never secure you a place in investing lore). There has been a gradual decline in earnings during recent years and I'm wondering if the current dividend yield (gross + special) is sustainable.
The current 24c dividend for FY12 already results in a payout ratio of >1.0. I conservatively assume that future dividends will exclude the special component, yielding a 16c annual gross dividend at a payout ratio of around 0.70 (which is already high). Given that SPH has a reputation of being an "income" counter with minimal prospect for growth, a substantial cut in the dividend will depress SPH's stock price. This will be a double whammy for SPH faithfuls.
We were discussing about this risk from Pg 41 of this thread.
(12-12-2012, 03:20 PM)Ben Wrote: (12-12-2012, 10:46 AM)KopiKat Wrote: There's also this current market infatuation with Yield stocks... see how long this'll last... especially since the govt kept forecasting economic weakness going forward...
Ops! I am one of those who are infaturated with yield, and SPH at current price is yielding more than 5%, or close to 6%. That is good enough for me and my itchy fingers trigger a buy... maybe I am too kan cheong....nevermind, I am waiting for the 17c dividends to celebrate Christmas
I have nothing against buying and holding SPH for the yield. What the rest of us also 'die-hard' fans of SPH is doing is to try to squeeze out a little bit more returns from our beloved SPH....
(12-12-2012, 01:39 PM)Temperament Wrote: Quote:WolfT
]When too many people knows the trick... it won't work.
i also sold before XD... now waiting too!
My entry price is set at 3.80.
I think this is not a trick but a mini B/S strategy. It's really existed for a long time already. If you go to our NL, you can read investment books teaching about this strategy and some others. And if you monitor our local SGX daily, you can observe this strategy works most of the time for most of the stocks (especially high div paying stocks) if not every time for every stocks. And it seems to be International too.
Shalom.
Can recommend some of these books from NL so I can learn more "about this strategy and some others" ? 
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