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What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?  
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Kim Eng report on SPH with rating of BUY and fair price of $4.5.
Good news to uncle Temperament i assume
The valuation is base on SOTP below
SPH's Investible Fund 790.1
Net Debt (911.2)
Paragon Market Value 2,430.0
Clementi Mall Mkt. Value 358.8
Valuation of core media business 4,508.9 DCF: (WACC: 7.1%, Continuing value growth 1.5%)
No value for SengKang Mall? The valuation of core media business is pretty optimistic
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(14-10-2012, 06:37 AM)Temperament Wrote: What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?
Yield stocks like SPH (little or no growth) which pays rather predictable and regular dividends usually behaves like Bonds during cd/xd times. Some analysts even call them semi-Bonds...
The risk is that they may suddenly cut their payout rate and share price may react adversely eg. SBSTransit cut their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08. Was still trading at $3+ in end-07 but after rate cut + drop in EPS,.... now less than half price!
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15-10-2012, 03:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 15-10-2012, 03:47 PM by CityFarmer.)
(15-10-2012, 11:06 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (14-10-2012, 06:37 AM)Temperament Wrote: What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?
Yield stocks like SPH (little or no growth) which pays rather predictable and regular dividends usually behaves like Bonds during cd/xd times. Some analysts even call them semi-Bonds...
The risk is that they may suddenly cut their payout rate and share price may react adversely eg. SBSTransit cut their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08. Was still trading at $3+ in end-07 but after rate cut + drop in EPS,.... now less than half price!
Fully agreed.
The merit of a yield stock like SPH are
- high dividend yield (of course )
- high certainty of their dividend payout
UOB KayHian downgrades Singapore Press Holdings to Hold from Buy with target to $4.30 from $4.50 after revising its sum-of-the-parts valuation
It seems analysts valuation are on high side for SPH
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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(15-10-2012, 10:49 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: No value for SengKang Mall? The valuation of core media business is pretty optimistic
Not to nitpick but to be precise, it will be called Selatar Mall.
Gross development is SGD505 million. Would the valuation be lower than that??
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(15-10-2012, 05:18 PM)lonewolf Wrote: (15-10-2012, 10:49 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: No value for SengKang Mall? The valuation of core media business is pretty optimistic
Not to nitpick but to be precise, it will be called Selatar Mall.
Gross development is SGD505 million. Would the valuation be lower than that??
To be more precise, it is the "Seletar Mall"
Thanks to point out the mistake
The valuation is done by DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) Pte Ltd recently, should be the most updated and accurate.
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(15-10-2012, 11:06 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (14-10-2012, 06:37 AM)Temperament Wrote: What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?
Yield stocks like SPH (little or no growth) which pays rather predictable and regular dividends usually behaves like Bonds during cd/xd times. Some analysts even call them semi-Bonds...
The risk is that they may suddenly cut their payout rate and share price may react adversely eg. SBSTransit cut their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08. Was still trading at $3+ in end-07 but after rate cut + drop in EPS,.... now less than half price!
The possibility of SPH cutting their payout rate like SBS Transit is not comparable. Maybe SMRT is. But your logic of SPH behaves like a BOND is maybe comparable.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Posts: 1,889
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(15-10-2012, 09:00 PM)Temperament Wrote: (15-10-2012, 11:06 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (14-10-2012, 06:37 AM)Temperament Wrote: What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?
Yield stocks like SPH (little or no growth) which pays rather predictable and regular dividends usually behaves like Bonds during cd/xd times. Some analysts even call them semi-Bonds...
The risk is that they may suddenly cut their payout rate and share price may react adversely eg. SBSTransit cut their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08. Was still trading at $3+ in end-07 but after rate cut + drop in EPS,.... now less than half price!
The possibility of SPH cutting their payout rate like SBS Transit is not comparable. Maybe SMRT is. But your logic of SPH behaves like a BOND is maybe comparable.
Why not? Why do you think one component is designated as Special Dividend? Easier for them to stop paying that component if they ever need to retain the cash for other purposes. Same thing for both SBSTransit and ComfortDelgro when they reduced their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08 ie. stop paying the Special component.
Note that I'm not referring to reducing DPS due to worsening EPS. I'm referring to the % of EPS being paid as DPS.
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(15-10-2012, 10:24 PM)KopiKat Wrote: (15-10-2012, 09:00 PM)Temperament Wrote: (15-10-2012, 11:06 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (14-10-2012, 06:37 AM)Temperament Wrote: What about 17cts dividend to be paid on 21 DEC. 2012? SPH's current market price would have gone down below $4.0 if not in anticipation of this current dividend. Going forward is indeed tricky. i think for most of the stocks are the same? Who can be sure what's going to happen next?
Yield stocks like SPH (little or no growth) which pays rather predictable and regular dividends usually behaves like Bonds during cd/xd times. Some analysts even call them semi-Bonds...
The risk is that they may suddenly cut their payout rate and share price may react adversely eg. SBSTransit cut their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08. Was still trading at $3+ in end-07 but after rate cut + drop in EPS,.... now less than half price!
The possibility of SPH cutting their payout rate like SBS Transit is not comparable. Maybe SMRT is. But your logic of SPH behaves like a BOND is maybe comparable.
Why not? Why do you think one component is designated as Special Dividend? Easier for them to stop paying that component if they ever need to retain the cash for other purposes. Same thing for both SBSTransit and ComfortDelgro when they reduced their payout from 100% to 50% in FY08 ie. stop paying the Special component.
Note that I'm not referring to reducing DPS due to worsening EPS. I'm referring to the % of EPS being paid as DPS.
SPH is not comparable to SBSTransit and ComfortDelgro in the sense that they are not in the same sector of business. Therefore their operational requirements, mangement.....etc.etc.... are not the same.
But of course SPH's management may cut down or even cut off Special DIV. one day due to "diworsification" of their businesses.
So far, SPH has diversified more & more into landlord/tenants business. Which the market still can accept. Have to watch out closely what SPH going to diversify next. Hopefully SPH will not do a "diworsification" due to desperation to shore up earnings (ROE) to pay the special dividends.
If it happens one day, i hope i can get out in time.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Posts: 1,889
Threads: 5
Joined: Feb 2011
Reputation:
15
(16-10-2012, 08:33 AM)Temperament Wrote: SPH is not comparable to SBSTransit and ComfortDelgro in the sense that they are not in the same sector of business. Therefore their operational requirements, mangement.....etc.etc.... are not the same.
But of course SPH's management may cut down or even cut off Special DIV. one day due to "diworsification" of their businesses.
So far, SPH has diversified more & more into landlord/tenants business. Which the market still can accept. Have to watch out closely what SPH going to diversify next. Hopefully SPH will not do a "diworsification" due to desperation to shore up earnings (ROE) to pay the special dividends.
If it happens one day, i hope i can get out in time.
You're talking about DPS being reduced due to EPS being reduced if they diworseify.
I'm talking about DPS being reduced even tho' EPS is the same. In the case of SBSTransit, they reduced it for CAPEX ie. Bus / MRT fleets renewal / expansion. As for ComfortDelgro, it's for acquisitions.
I'm not saying that for SPH, this will happen, but there's always such a possibility... ie. the risk I see for SPH for MYSELF. Printing presses need to be changed? How often? How much? Will they reduce the Payout Rate and keep the cash for such CAPEX? Or they suddenly buy more Malls and need more cash? Or, they decide to make an unsolicited offer for F&N's Publishing biz and need cash? The above assumes they have reached an optimal debt level... Possible? Is it your risk?
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