Neptune Orient Lines (NOL)

[sgpunter]

Sold this junk ship at a 50% loss and never looked back from there...I honestly don't know how it can continue sustaining losses without raising capital to reduce debt burden...I'm surprised they have not issued rights yet. Probably hoping for sale of APL to tide it over until the shipping boom comes again (hopefully)...

And maybe I am biased here but I don't quite trust a former army general to turn this ship around.

[greengiraffe]

wah lau... mr Trader u really wasted so many buddies' precious time to talk you out.

Next time may be we should state if we are Trading Vested...

GG

Since the posting of this comment, I mentioned I am vested but the resumption of fall today has prompted me to exit. Its likely a greater value will appear later, but I am no longer holding it based on my trade philosophy.

Noticed bulk of views on NOL are pretty negative, as though its a sham coy which I believe its clearly not... NOL has its glory days during the SG independence, then swallowing up a larger APL w Tamesek backing till today. Thus adopting a contrarian approach, I did some research below & hope to shine some lights on this fallen angel...whose salvation may come after Nov 14 (read more below) [vested]

First, lets look at 31 Oct 14, Results Presentation: Group Core EBIT Trend
[img][/img]

Next, the last NAV was US$0.73 which translates to S$0.92
[Almost 18% of discount aka margin of safety from last close $0.76]

Then the Group Commentary
"Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping
capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the
Group’s cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track.
The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance."

Not rosy, but its cost management is on track & clearly shown in the EBIT trend, with the traditionally Q4 & Q1 peak quarters, strenghtening US$, US X'mas & stronger economy, imports along APL will increase compared with past years when US is on "ICU" with QE123, now that QE3 is gone & US continues its recovery... APL will be a prized gem all logistics companies going after...

And to the most important point... NOL is selling APL!!
http://www.todayonline.com/business/nol-...stics-unit

Invitation to bids for APL (min.asking price US$1 billion) have been sent, asking for first round bids by November 2014. Already Korea's CJ Korea Express has signaled its interests, I suspect there's more unannounced bids coming (infer from past week's MACD & Force index divergence, lower price but higher MACD histograms & force index, similar for other indicators).

Putting US$1 billion ask price with retrospect to its 31 Oct 14's Q3 Total Assets of US$8.9 billion and Net Assets of US$0.182 billion; the successful sale of APL would results in a bonanza of liquid cash/shares (from purchasing company)... this sale if succeeds will likely results in base scenario "Return of capital/huge dividend" or exchange with new shares (depending on acquiring company's cash/share ratio).

This may well be a once in a lifetime cigar opportunity to profit from this conglomerate NOL.

TK's 2cents view...

[tonyking]

My only regrets is I should have recognize the turning doji after I sold. My initial view was correct but its too early, well that's part of trading... For those who stick to the longer value, you should have earned now since it has risen from posting $0.775 to $0.82 today...

No companies are worthless, the listing status itself is worth something... so for longer term investors, they should still look at NOL & its APL as a cigar one-time value play. Each to their own... Our monies at the end of the day tell us if we are right, any other opinions are just for consideration at most...

wah lau... mr Trader u really wasted so many buddies' precious time to talk you out.

Next time may be we should state if we are Trading Vested...

GG

Since the posting of this comment, I mentioned I am vested but the resumption of fall today has prompted me to exit. Its likely a greater value will appear later, but I am no longer holding it based on my trade philosophy.

Noticed bulk of views on NOL are pretty negative, as though its a sham coy which I believe its clearly not... NOL has its glory days during the SG independence, then swallowing up a larger APL w Tamesek backing till today. Thus adopting a contrarian approach, I did some research below & hope to shine some lights on this fallen angel...whose salvation may come after Nov 14 (read more below) [vested]

First, lets look at 31 Oct 14, Results Presentation: Group Core EBIT Trend
[img][/img]

Next, the last NAV was US$0.73 which translates to S$0.92
[Almost 18% of discount aka margin of safety from last close $0.76]

Then the Group Commentary
"Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping
capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the
Group’s cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track.
The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance."

Not rosy, but its cost management is on track & clearly shown in the EBIT trend, with the traditionally Q4 & Q1 peak quarters, strenghtening US$, US X'mas & stronger economy, imports along APL will increase compared with past years when US is on "ICU" with QE123, now that QE3 is gone & US continues its recovery... APL will be a prized gem all logistics companies going after...

And to the most important point... NOL is selling APL!!
http://www.todayonline.com/business/nol-...stics-unit

Invitation to bids for APL (min.asking price US$1 billion) have been sent, asking for first round bids by November 2014. Already Korea's CJ Korea Express has signaled its interests, I suspect there's more unannounced bids coming (infer from past week's MACD & Force index divergence, lower price but higher MACD histograms & force index, similar for other indicators).

Putting US$1 billion ask price with retrospect to its 31 Oct 14's Q3 Total Assets of US$8.9 billion and Net Assets of US$0.182 billion; the successful sale of APL would results in a bonanza of liquid cash/shares (from purchasing company)... this sale if succeeds will likely results in base scenario "Return of capital/huge dividend" or exchange with new shares (depending on acquiring company's cash/share ratio).

This may well be a once in a lifetime cigar opportunity to profit from this conglomerate NOL.

TK's 2cents view...

[greengiraffe]

NOL without sovereign backing is a pile of scrap metal...

Anyway looking at as a classic bear trap... only a handful of skillful traders will make money out of it, the rest mostly swept away by the tsunami...

My only regrets is I should have recognize the turning doji after I sold. My initial view was correct but its too early, well that's part of trading... For those who stick to the longer value, you should have earned now since it has risen from posting $0.775 to $0.82 today...

No companies are worthless, the listing status itself is worth something... so for longer term investors, they should still look at NOL & its APL as a cigar one-time value play. Each to their own... Our monies at the end of the day tell us if we are right, any other opinions are just for consideration at most...

wah lau... mr Trader u really wasted so many buddies' precious time to talk you out.

Next time may be we should state if we are Trading Vested...

GG

Since the posting of this comment, I mentioned I am vested but the resumption of fall today has prompted me to exit. Its likely a greater value will appear later, but I am no longer holding it based on my trade philosophy.

Noticed bulk of views on NOL are pretty negative, as though its a sham coy which I believe its clearly not... NOL has its glory days during the SG independence, then swallowing up a larger APL w Tamesek backing till today. Thus adopting a contrarian approach, I did some research below & hope to shine some lights on this fallen angel...whose salvation may come after Nov 14 (read more below) [vested]

First, lets look at 31 Oct 14, Results Presentation: Group Core EBIT Trend
[img][/img]

Next, the last NAV was US$0.73 which translates to S$0.92
[Almost 18% of discount aka margin of safety from last close $0.76]

Then the Group Commentary
"Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping
capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the
Group’s cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track.
The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance."

Not rosy, but its cost management is on track & clearly shown in the EBIT trend, with the traditionally Q4 & Q1 peak quarters, strenghtening US$, US X'mas & stronger economy, imports along APL will increase compared with past years when US is on "ICU" with QE123, now that QE3 is gone & US continues its recovery... APL will be a prized gem all logistics companies going after...

And to the most important point... NOL is selling APL!!
http://www.todayonline.com/business/nol-...stics-unit

Invitation to bids for APL (min.asking price US$1 billion) have been sent, asking for first round bids by November 2014. Already Korea's CJ Korea Express has signaled its interests, I suspect there's more unannounced bids coming (infer from past week's MACD & Force index divergence, lower price but higher MACD histograms & force index, similar for other indicators).

Putting US$1 billion ask price with retrospect to its 31 Oct 14's Q3 Total Assets of US$8.9 billion and Net Assets of US$0.182 billion; the successful sale of APL would results in a bonanza of liquid cash/shares (from purchasing company)... this sale if succeeds will likely results in base scenario "Return of capital/huge dividend" or exchange with new shares (depending on acquiring company's cash/share ratio).

This may well be a once in a lifetime cigar opportunity to profit from this conglomerate NOL.

TK's 2cents view...

[Greenrookie]

No in-depth analysis just rather surprised at the drastic different of fortune between NOL and Maesk

http://www.joc.com/port-news/maersk-line...bddcjkJMa7

Quite obvious NOL trying to do a Maesk to no avail

[greengiraffe]

Time to buy NOL?

Classic case of top fun mgr act... paid peak price at peak of cycle and now looking to cut losses at potentially the bottom...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/temasek-puts...1437038311

Temasek Puts Neptune Orient Lines Up for Sale
Deal would allow state-investment company to exit the container shipping business
A Neptune Orient Lines container in Singapore. ENLARGE
A Neptune Orient Lines container in Singapore. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS
By RICK CAREW And P.R. VENKAT
July 16, 2015 5:18 a.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
Singapore state-investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. has put its struggling $1.7 billion container-shipping company up for sale, according to people familiar with the situation.

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., a shipper 65% owned by Temasek and listed in Singapore, has been shopped to prospective buyers in recent months, these people said. A potential deal for the shipper, known as NOL, comes on the heels of a $1.2 billion deal by NOL to sell its profitable unit APL Logistics Ltd. to Japan’s Kintetsu World Express Inc., a company involved in air and ocean freight forwarding. The APL Logistics sale was completed in late May.

The deal would allow Temasek to exit the container shipping business, which has performed poorly in recent years amid excess capacity. Neptune Orient Lines’ market capitalization is around 2.3 billion Singapore dollars ($1.7 billion) and including debt, the company’s value is more than S$8 billion, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. The company had been in talks with a prospective buyer but the two sides couldn’t agree on price, according to a person familiar with the situation. NOL has been in deal talks with other shippers in recent years.

NOL declined to comment and Temasek said it won’t comment on “market speculation.”

The shipper, which was founded in 1968 as Singapore’s national shipping line, was part of the country’s effort to fashion itself as a crucial stop on global trade routes. The 35% of the company, one of the world’s largest shippers, that isn’t owned by Temasek trades on the Singapore Stock Exchange. The company’s shares have performed poorly, save for a bump earlier this year after the start of the APL sale process. Shares have tumbled since the deal was done.

NOL incurred losses in each of the past three years due to falling freight rates and an industrywide glut of ships. It suffered a net loss of $260 million in 2014, worsening from a $76 million loss a year earlier, with weakness in its container-shipping business offset by profits from the logistics operations that were sold to Kintetsu World Express.

Singaporean regulations would require any buyer who purchases a 30% or more stake to make a mandatory general offer for all the company’s shares.

Write to Rick Carew at rick.carew@wsj.com and P.R. Venkat at venkat.pr@wsj.com

[corydorus]

Another case in point. Strategic to Nation ? My foot. Is all about dollar and cents

[greengiraffe]

Er yr foot is probably not worth much... their actions are worth more than Gold... since when are they ever wrong?

Another case in point. Strategic to Nation ? My foot. Is all about dollar and cents

[Ray168]

Numbers can speak.

数字能说话：新加坡港口的挑战
新加坡港口刚连续27年蝉联“亚洲最佳港口”。但是，作为区域重要的港枢纽，我国港口面对区域港口的挑战。新加坡是如何维持港口竞争力的？

http://www.channel8news.sg/news8/ca/mone...55438.html

Scroll to 17:05 and watch the challenges Sg port face in near future.

[greengiraffe]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL_Resp...eID=360595

Very weird response... its the controlling holder looking to sell NOL...

What has it got to do with NOL... can NOL put itself up for sale?