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First Ship Lease Trust
02-10-2017, 09:27 AM, (This post was last modified: 02-10-2017, 09:29 AM by CY09.)
Post: #361
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
On the contrary, Mr. Market sees it as a bad news and have pushed the stock down to 8.2 cents as of 9.30am.

With 3 more months to go, it depends a lot if FSL is able to rollover its debts otherwise I think sale of some vessels should tide it over

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03-10-2017, 10:59 AM,
Post: #362
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
Imo, the best course of action is to rollover the debts. The second one is to sell down some vessels to pare off the debt partially. I actually think the termination with the navios is a good one because the terms are just so unfavourable. I have started putting some funds in this company yesterday as a result of that. Just felt that there's a higher chance to make some good profits at this price, of course there is also a chance of a loss. Let's see how it goes in the next few months.

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03-10-2017, 11:34 AM,
Post: #363
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
(03-10-2017, 10:59 AM)money Wrote: Imo, the best course of action is to rollover the debts. The second one is to sell down some vessels to pare off the debt partially. I actually think the termination with the navios is a good one because the terms are just so unfavourable. I have started putting some funds in this company yesterday as a result of that. Just felt that there's a higher chance to make some good profits at this price, of course there is also a chance of a loss. Let's see how it goes in the next few months.

At least the TM did not accept the US13cts per share buyout.
Maybe they felt that the NCUHs are going to give them hell if they go down the Navios path..haha.

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06-10-2017, 06:10 PM,
Post: #364
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20171006...eID=473244


Query 1
Please disclose the reasons why the Proposed Transaction did not proceed.
Response: Following the execution of the Term Sheet, the Trustee-Manager consulted with its
professional advisers regarding the proposed transaction (as described in the 28 April Announcement)
(the “Proposed Transaction”) and taking into account, inter alia, the input of its advisers and
feedback received from certain Unitholders, the Trustee-Manager was of the view that the Proposed
Transaction would not be feasible
. The Trustee-Manager sought to negotiate terms with Navios.
However, as no definitive structure was agreed to, nor definitive documentation executed, prior to the
end of the exclusivity period granted under the Term Sheet, the Term Sheet was automatically
terminated in accordance with the terms thereof.
The Trustee-Manager is and will be considering all options available, including any further proposals
from Navios
and/or any other person.


The last sentence is pretty mysterious to include Navios. Another deal from Navios on the table?

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06-10-2017, 09:04 PM,
Post: #365
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
FSL TM could be holding out for a better deal with navios. This is because nordbank is supposed to be wound up according to EU regulations. Eventually Nordbank stake in FSL has to be sold but at conditions beneficial to its wounding up.

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17-11-2017, 03:10 PM,
Post: #366
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
(20-05-2017, 11:51 AM)wonghw12 Wrote: I did some calculations, and found the following to give very similar NAV/share, which are way higher than today's share price.

1) Price paid by Navios to acquire stake from FSL Holdings = 18.1c / share
2) Assuming VTL = 125%, implied NAV = 18.8c / share
3) My agar agar calculation of FSL's vessel values derives 18.4c / share

Calculations below, assuming 1 USD = 1.4 SGD:
Calculation 1)
Navios to pay USD20mn to buy FSL Holdings' 154.4mn shares = USD20mn * 1.4USDSGD / 154.4mn shares = 18.1c / share

Calculation 2)
Bank debt = USD191.9mn
Value of 21 mortgaged vessels at 1.25x VTL = USD191.9mn x 1.25 = USD239.9mn
My estimated value of unmortgaged vessel (FSL Osaka) = USD13mn
Net assets less vessels and bank debt = Cash + other non-vessel assets - Non debt liability = USD25.14mn + USD5.63mn - USD6.00mn = USD24.8mn
NAV @ 1.25x VTL = (Value of vessels (mortgaged + unmortgaged) + Net assets less vessels and bank debt - bank debt) / Outstanding shares = (USD239.9mn + USD13mn + USD24.8mn - USD191.9mn) / 637.5mn shares = USD85.8mn * 1.4 USDSGD / 637.5mn shares = 18.8c / share

Calculation 3) - grateful if valuebuddies can help verify my assumptions for the market value of the vessels below (w/o contracts). They are agarations based on what I googled online.
Product Tankers (Subtotal: USD129mn)
FSL Hamburg - USD13mn
FSL Singapore - USD13mn
FSL Osaka - USD13mn
Cumbrian Fisher - USD9mn
Clyde Fisher - USD9mn
Shannon Fisher - USD6mn
Solway Fisher - USD6mn
Speciality - USD6mn
Seniority - USD6mn
Superiority - USD6mn
Margrethe - USD21mn
Marie - USD21mn

Containerships (Subtotal: USD26mn)
YM Eminence - USD7mn
YM Elixir - USD7mn
YM Enhancer - USD7mn
FSL Busan - USD2.5mn
FSL Santos - USD2.5mn

Chemical Tankers (Subtotal: USD54mn)
FSL New York - USD18mn
FSL London - USD18mn
FSL Tokyo - USD18mn

Oil Tankers (Subtotal: USD42mn)
FSL Hong Kong - USD21mn
FSL Shanghai - USD21mn

My agaration of market values of the vessels = USD129mn + USD26mn + USD54mn + USD42mn = USD251mn
Net assets less vessels and bank debt = Cash + other non-vessel assets - Non debt liability = USD25.14mn + USD5.63mn - USD6.00mn = USD24.8mn
NAV = My agaration of market values of the vessels + Net assets less vessels and bank debt - bank debt) / Outstanding shares = (USD251mn + USD24.8mn - USD191.9mn) / 637.5mn shares = USD83.9mn * 1.4 USDSGD / 637.5mn shares = 18.4c / share

FSL might really be undervalued, vested some and hoping for the best!

Based on latest set of result, FSL HK and FSL Shanghai valuation of 21mn maybe too high IMO. These 2 oil tankers only generated a revenue of USD0.1mn and USD0.3mn on revenue share.

Same for the 2 LR2 tankers, TORM Margethe and TORM Marie which generated revenue of USD0.8mn for 3Q. Hence valuation of USD 21mn seems too high.

However, YM Eminence, YM Elixir & YM Enhancer, I would assign a higher value because of Yang Ming contract which ends in 2020. If I remember correctly, I thought I saw somewhere where the contract states that Yang Ming may buy over the vessels at USD30mn each.

Unless the market recovers, I am not surprise if there is more impairments next quarter, taking into consideration the revenue for FSL HK and FSL Shanghai have dropped from over USD1 million/q to a pathetic low.

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17-11-2017, 09:11 PM,
Post: #367
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
/yang-ming-eyes-orders-20-boxships
http://splash247.com/yang-ming-eyes-orders-20-boxships/
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/

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17-11-2017, 09:17 PM,
Post: #368
RE: First Ship Lease Trust
(17-11-2017, 03:10 PM)Millionfaith Wrote:
(20-05-2017, 11:51 AM)wonghw12 Wrote: I did some calculations, and found the following to give very similar NAV/share, which are way higher than today's share price.

1) Price paid by Navios to acquire stake from FSL Holdings = 18.1c / share
2) Assuming VTL = 125%, implied NAV = 18.8c / share
3) My agar agar calculation of FSL's vessel values derives 18.4c / share

Calculations below, assuming 1 USD = 1.4 SGD:
Calculation 1)
Navios to pay USD20mn to buy FSL Holdings' 154.4mn shares = USD20mn * 1.4USDSGD / 154.4mn shares = 18.1c / share

Calculation 2)
Bank debt = USD191.9mn
Value of 21 mortgaged vessels at 1.25x VTL = USD191.9mn x 1.25 = USD239.9mn
My estimated value of unmortgaged vessel (FSL Osaka) = USD13mn
Net assets less vessels and bank debt = Cash + other non-vessel assets - Non debt liability = USD25.14mn + USD5.63mn - USD6.00mn = USD24.8mn
NAV @ 1.25x VTL = (Value of vessels (mortgaged + unmortgaged) + Net assets less vessels and bank debt - bank debt) / Outstanding shares = (USD239.9mn + USD13mn + USD24.8mn - USD191.9mn) / 637.5mn shares = USD85.8mn * 1.4 USDSGD / 637.5mn shares = 18.8c / share

Calculation 3) - grateful if valuebuddies can help verify my assumptions for the market value of the vessels below (w/o contracts). They are agarations based on what I googled online.
Product Tankers (Subtotal: USD129mn)
FSL Hamburg - USD13mn
FSL Singapore - USD13mn
FSL Osaka - USD13mn
Cumbrian Fisher - USD9mn
Clyde Fisher - USD9mn
Shannon Fisher - USD6mn
Solway Fisher - USD6mn
Speciality - USD6mn
Seniority - USD6mn
Superiority - USD6mn
Margrethe - USD21mn
Marie - USD21mn

Containerships (Subtotal: USD26mn)
YM Eminence - USD7mn
YM Elixir - USD7mn
YM Enhancer - USD7mn
FSL Busan - USD2.5mn
FSL Santos - USD2.5mn

Chemical Tankers (Subtotal: USD54mn)
FSL New York - USD18mn
FSL London - USD18mn
FSL Tokyo - USD18mn

Oil Tankers (Subtotal: USD42mn)
FSL Hong Kong - USD21mn
FSL Shanghai - USD21mn

My agaration of market values of the vessels = USD129mn + USD26mn + USD54mn + USD42mn = USD251mn
Net assets less vessels and bank debt = Cash + other non-vessel assets - Non debt liability = USD25.14mn + USD5.63mn - USD6.00mn = USD24.8mn
NAV = My agaration of market values of the vessels + Net assets less vessels and bank debt - bank debt) / Outstanding shares = (USD251mn + USD24.8mn - USD191.9mn) / 637.5mn shares = USD83.9mn * 1.4 USDSGD / 637.5mn shares = 18.4c / share

FSL might really be undervalued, vested some and hoping for the best!

Based on latest set of result, FSL HK and FSL Shanghai valuation of 21mn maybe too high IMO. These 2 oil tankers only generated a revenue of USD0.1mn and USD0.3mn on revenue share.

Same for the 2 LR2 tankers, TORM Margethe and TORM Marie which generated revenue of USD0.8mn for 3Q. Hence valuation of USD 21mn seems too high.

However, YM Eminence, YM Elixir & YM Enhancer, I would assign a higher value because of Yang Ming contract which ends in 2020. If I remember correctly, I thought I saw somewhere where the contract states that Yang Ming may buy over the vessels at USD30mn each.

Unless the market recovers, I am not surprise if there is more impairments next quarter, taking into consideration the revenue for FSL HK and FSL Shanghai have dropped from over USD1 million/q to a pathetic low.

I think the Aframax and LR2s are probably worth USD16m each now. However, the MRs might be worth slightly more. The figures are assumed to be without contracts, so we could see another ~USD40m upside from the containers.

Agree that there should be a lot more impairments. Reason being the book NAV is way above where the real NAV should be, though this should still be way higher than today's share price.

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