Should we feel sad for Singaporean investors?

[i4value]

The Chart below compares the Straits Times Index (STI), Gold prices and Singapore Residential Price Index (RPI) over the last 22 years. Over the past 22 years

• STI grew at 2.2% CAGR
  
• Gold prices grew at 6.4 % CAGR
  
• RPI grew at 3.3 % CAGR
  

Of course, gold was more volatile with a Std dev/mean of 41% where as STI and RPI was 24 % and 26 % respectively.



To give you some perspective, over the past 20 years, the average CPI was 1.9 % annually.

In contrast over the same period. the KLCI grew at 3.3 % CAGR while the Malaysian Housing Price index grew at 5.1 %. Refer to “In Malaysia, which has better returns; Stock market or Property?”

If you are a retail stock investor in Singapore, you have to learn to beat the index so as not to lose out to inflation. Of course, the second half of the review period was a tougher one to make money.

[Corgitator]

The Chart below compares the Straits Times Index (STI), Gold prices and Singapore Residential Price Index (RPI) over the last 22 years. Over the past 22 years

• STI grew at 2.2% CAGR
  
• Gold prices grew at 6.4 % CAGR
  
• RPI grew at 3.3 % CAGR
  

Of course, gold was more volatile with a Std dev/mean of 41% where as STI and RPI was 24 % and 26 % respectively.



To give you some perspective, over the past 20 years, the average CPI was 1.9 % annually.

In contrast over the same period. the KLCI grew at 3.3 % CAGR while the Malaysian Housing Price index grew at 5.1 %. Refer to “In Malaysia, which has better returns; Stock market or Property?”

If you are a retail stock investor in Singapore, you have to learn to beat the index so as not to lose out to inflation. Of course, the second half of the review period was a tougher one to make money.

STI only reflects capital gains/losses right? If we assume a 3% annual dividend yield, the CAGR for STI is more respectable, and beats inflation handily.

[Wildreamz]

Leaving the potential for cherry-picking starting point and endpoint aside. Are the returns all exchange rate (ie inflation) adjusted? Because the exchange rate of RM vs SGD over the last 20 years ain't pretty.

[i4value]

I have not looked at forex. If you are going to look beyond your own country, I would have thought that the first choice would be the US

[EnSabahNur]

I think before the dot-com era, the STI index will be a natural benchmark for stockpickers or a proxy to guesstimate how well they are doing.

With the many, many global markets available, I think a lot of investors would have gone overseas?

I understand that there are different risks involved, but I don't see a strong reason to self-limit to the SGX only.

We should actually take the chance to cherry pick the stocks we want to put money in.

I wrote a little about it here:

https://adragonhoard.blogspot.com/2023/0...tings.html

[i4value]

It is ironic but as a value investor, I depend on the market behaving irrationally to make money. So I tend to focus on Bursa and SGX companies as I like to think that being a Malaysian, I have a better understanding of how the local crowd thinks. I have some investments in the US but I find it harder to figure out how the crowd there thinks

[weijian]

hi i4value,
For Bursa, it seems to me you are focusing around the ecosystem of housing and construction - developers themselves and then their upstream/downstream producers. For SGX companies, what are you looking at?

[i4value]

I focus on cyclical companies irrespective of whether they are Bursa or US, etc. This is because I find it easier to forecast the future due to the repeated patterns. So I have looked at UOA, Wing Tai in the context of SGX.