anyone outperform BRKB over 10 years

[Terry]

I've not.

i remember 10+ years when i join course they like to market it as, you as a small capital easily beat buffett's Billion cap by margin.
I held that statement logical and true.

5 years down the road, nah, under performer.
i recalled it's a breakeven at best essentially net less than 20% over course of 5 years.
Annualised probably less than 4%/ year. worst than CPF-SA.

10 years down the road, nah, under performer. didn't even bother to keep track.



when ever i see a course on value investing.
the core statement" even buffett said , if he had a smaller capital he would perform much better." somewhere along this line.

in the path of investing.

what i could have done better. learn, unlearn, put into BRKB / SPY.
stop believing self effort is better than performance of proven alpha. 
stop believing 天选之子.


none of people I know who are serious value investor beat BRKB/SPY over course of 10 years.

in-line with this stats. just i'm the the 10% outperformer.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/resear.../spiva/#us

[weii]

Dear Terry,

Usually in public forum such as valuebuddies.com, people will say they did not beat S&P 500 index so it may not be wise to do a sampling. It can be discouraging and may cause many to buy passive ETFs instead of spending time doing research.

Actually, if you attend AGMs, you will come across a lot of people who beat S&P 500 index by a wide margin in the long run.

There is actually a fund named Yeoman 3-Rights Value Asia Fund VCC that beats its index ( MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index).
Reference: https://yeomancap.com/funds-asia/

Do private message (PM) me if you like to discuss further on how to beat market index in the long run as a lot of strategies should not be discussed in public else someone will use it to sell the next value investing course.

[Wildreamz]

I beat on a Time-Weighted and Money-Weighted basis, but my track record only started from 1st Jan 2017 as I switched broker that year.

That said, I do not harbor any illusions that this will continue moving forward. The reason I DIY investing is not because I think I could consistently beat the SPY, but to have skin in the game so I could learn more about the world (social, economic, political, business, technology etc.). 

If 30-50 years later, it turns out that all my effort is in vain, and I would be better off investing in indexes, it's ok for me (as long as I don't lose too much money in the process).

[Terry]

Dear Terry,

Usually in public forum such as valuebuddies.com, people will say they did not beat S&P 500 index so it may not be wise to do a sampling. It can be discouraging and may cause many to buy passive ETFs instead of spending time doing research.

Actually, if you attend AGMs, you will come across a lot of people who beat S&P 500 index by a wide margin in the long run.

There is actually a fund named Yeoman 3-Rights Value Asia Fund VCC that beats its index ( MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index).
Reference: https://yeomancap.com/funds-asia/

Do private message (PM) me if you like to discuss further on how to beat market index in the long run as a lot of strategies should not be discussed in public else someone will use it to sell the next value investing course.

I actually heard of this fund.

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/ba1...24a64b3730

this doc shows  MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index 
annualised return Since May 31, 1994 is 2.62%

it base their performance benchmark comparison with an EXTREME mediocre index. 

doesn't sound like clients come out net positive after fund fee for 25 years.

but the more serious question is ethic and character of the manager to make such comparison.

[weii]

Thanks Terry for the valuable input.

This reference below provides the funds that beat S&P 500 index, hope it is useful. The top fund is Baillie Gifford American, the four fund managers who run the fund back exceptional businesses and aim to hold over the long term.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary...0-ii515904

They seem to follow what Charlie Munger said: “If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger

[Corgitator]

Dear Terry,

Usually in public forum such as valuebuddies.com, people will say they did not beat S&P 500 index so it may not be wise to do a sampling. It can be discouraging and may cause many to buy passive ETFs instead of spending time doing research.

Actually, if you attend AGMs, you will come across a lot of people who beat S&P 500 index by a wide margin in the long run.

There is actually a fund named Yeoman 3-Rights Value Asia Fund VCC that beats its index ( MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index).
Reference: https://yeomancap.com/funds-asia/

Do private message (PM) me if you like to discuss further on how to beat market index in the long run as a lot of strategies should not be discussed in public else someone will use it to sell the next value investing course.

I actually heard of this fund.

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/ba1...24a64b3730

this doc shows  MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index 
annualised return Since May 31, 1994 is 2.62%

it base their performance benchmark comparison with an EXTREME mediocre index. 

doesn't sound like clients come out net positive after fund fee for 25 years.

but the more serious question is ethic and character of the manager to make such comparison.

Yes, the index is mediocre, but he still did 10% per annum over 25 years. And the performance is *net* of fees. Look around the existing Asian-focused fund managers (who are already the better ones just due to survivorship bias), and you will be hard pressed to find many who achieved such performance.

And by the way, S&P500 did 7.7% (with dividend reinvested) during the same period of the fund's existence (Oct 97 till now). So even a "better" index lost to him.

[Terry]

Dear Terry,

Usually in public forum such as valuebuddies.com, people will say they did not beat S&P 500 index so it may not be wise to do a sampling. It can be discouraging and may cause many to buy passive ETFs instead of spending time doing research.

Actually, if you attend AGMs, you will come across a lot of people who beat S&P 500 index by a wide margin in the long run.

There is actually a fund named Yeoman 3-Rights Value Asia Fund VCC that beats its index ( MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index).
Reference: https://yeomancap.com/funds-asia/

Do private message (PM) me if you like to discuss further on how to beat market index in the long run as a lot of strategies should not be discussed in public else someone will use it to sell the next value investing course.

I actually heard of this fund.

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/ba1...24a64b3730

this doc shows  MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan Small Cap Index 
annualised return Since May 31, 1994 is 2.62%

it base their performance benchmark comparison with an EXTREME mediocre index. 

doesn't sound like clients come out net positive after fund fee for 25 years.

but the more serious question is ethic and character of the manager to make such comparison.

Yes, the index is mediocre, but he still did 10% per annum over 25 years. And the performance is *net* of fees. Look around the existing Asian-focused fund managers (who are already the better ones just due to survivorship bias), and you will be hard pressed to find many who achieved such performance.

And by the way, S&P500 did 7.7% (with dividend reinvested) during the same period of the fund's existence (Oct 97 till now). So even a "better" index lost to him.

what about his another fund?

[Terry]

mod please close thread.

meaningless to discuss others performance while i'm the underperformer.

the link information I believe is sufficient to provide info to people who tried for 10 years and still believe
they can beat alpha (BRKB) or a lesser alpha(SPY) with smaller capital.

how many 10 year cycle does a person have in market from day 0 with a sufficient capital for investment say $50k/100k/200k/300k savings.

[weijian]

Dear Terry,

I applaud your courage to "publish" your own performance. I think you owe yourself this clarity.

Think about it - Profitable Investing is extremely uncomfortable. By doing what you did, you have already got into the training of been "uncomfortable".

(1) Beating the index may be your goal; but it cannot be everyone's goal, isn't it?
- I think vb wildreamz probably sums up a lot of the silent majority (me inclusive). Beating the index might have been the goal for many of us who first started investing, but some of us probably evolved along the way. We relish the challenges and the personal growth that comes with this investing journey. As long as we find ourselves not financially worst off than someone who exclusively invest in T-bills etc, the rewards of this quest is as much intellectual and financial.

(2) How many 10 years do we have?
- Charlie Munger just completed a latest session of the Daily Journal's AGM at the age of 99 years old. Even if we had started at late 40s, there are probably another 50 years (or 5x of 10 years)
- Of course, not everyone is going to live that long (or want to live that long in a wheelchair as he does now)! But hey, life is about preparing for outliers, isn't it?!
- Yes, we do not have a lot of 10 years. But we don't have that scarce either. There are 2 ways compounding can work - increase the rate (slope of the curve) or extend the X-axis. Personally, I prepare myself for a long X axis. How do I prepare? Easy, I eat right, exercise lots, sleep enough and maintain lovely relationships.

(3) Is progress linear?
- I like the way that Thomas Chua of Steady Compounding presents this idea. (https://steadycompounding.com/life/ive-l...-now-what/)
- Most of us here, are average and so are regular employees. We have been attuned to linear progress, ie. I put in X effort and I get Y returns periodically. Along the way, my value proposition increases and so the Y returns may increase but it is still linear.
- But investing, similar to been an entrepreneur, is probably not going to follow linear progress (at least for average people like me and you). Most investors have nothing to show for, in their first X years (me inclusive). Even vb wildreamz whom has beaten the S&P500 since 2017, had back in 2013 been trapped by a short seller in CMZ and was frantically asking for public advice on what to do. And look at his progress since then!

[dreamybear]

There is a similar thread discussing retail investors beating the index, interested buddies may wish to read both threads concurrently :

Success Rate Of Retail Investors
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-10160.html

I think unless an OPMI is aspiring to be a fund manager, it may make more sense to focus on achieving (high) absolute returns. Also, although we can say we have x no. of 10 years, we have to consider that the "utility value" of money may diminish with age, e.g. rather $5m at age 35 (YOLO, FIRE, live desired lifestyle, chase dreams) compared to $20m at age 85. In a similar vein, even if a person acquired supreme investing knowledge at age 85 to be able to beat almost everyone else's investing record henceforth, I am not sure whether one would rather want to have just sufficient investing capability to make a few millions(absolute value adjusted for standard/cost of living now and foreseeable future) at a much younger age. Unless, of course, one is treating investing more as a passion, like an art to perfect. If one prefers the latter(money more impt), then it could be useful to start searching for mentors/role models or like-minded aspirants. 

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1016...#pid158583