The 2020's: A decade of Inflation

[weijian]

I don't understand the hype in using CPF-OA funds to bid for T-bills. Yes, you might get a higher yield in the short term. But what about long term?

hi ghchua,
I think prospect theory largely explains the hype

And in your years of investing, I am pretty sure you know that "long term" is the exception than the norm.

In the short term, everyone shouts long term. But in the long term, most of us turn out to be pretty short term.

[Behappyalways]

Bad for Singapore too

歷史的風向變了！張忠謀談「全球化已死」陳鳳馨：台灣是最大受害者【Yahoo TV】風向龍鳳配
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dklYtuyZFtE

[weijian]

Reading Howard Marks' memos remind me of the need to keep my horizon to be "decades long" rather than the "next 1-2 years".

Markets are reflexive, so the cure for high inflation is high inflation. Rather than thinking of when the Fed will stop their rate hikes, where they will stop it at, or when it will pivot...maybe the best anti-fragile move is simply to prepare for higher interest rates in the coming decade (compared to the prior)?

Sea Change

In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/defa...a69a4066_7

[Choon]

Reading Howard Marks' memos remind me of the need to keep my horizon to be "decades long" rather than the "next 1-2 years".

Markets are reflexive, so the cure for high inflation is high inflation. Rather than thinking of when the Fed will stop their rate hikes, where they will stop it at, or when it will pivot...maybe the best anti-fragile move is simply to prepare for higher interest rates in the coming decade (compared to the prior)?

Sea Change

In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/defa...a69a4066_7

...maybe the best anti-fragile move is simply to prepare for higher interest rates in the coming decade (compared to the prior)?

--> which in my simple mind means a downward reset of PE ratios.

[Behappyalways]

Raoul Pal & Felix Zulauf: The World We Knew for 30 Years Is Gone
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j0DB8upnJzw

Bad for Singapore too

歷史的風向變了！張忠謀談「全球化已死」陳鳳馨：台灣是最大受害者【Yahoo TV】風向龍鳳配
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dklYtuyZFtE